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Rick’s Sports Betting: Enable Can Win Another Arc – By Rick Elliott

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The first Sunday in October sees an influx of racing fans to France for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. After two years at Chantilly the race returns to Longchamp for the 2018 race as renovations at the course have been completed. The tracks have different features and the false straight at Longchamp means the shape of the race can change in the closing stages. In 2017 Enable was a decisive winner but not necessarily the best horse in the race. The three-year-old filly received weight from the older male horses and took full advantage of that concession.   

The Arc is the richest Flat race in Europe and identifies the champion horse of Europe. Horses aged three and older are eligible which means it brings together the best of the Classic generation and older horses. Enable received weight so was the best weighted horse in the race. She returns to Longchamp this year but aged four will not receive any weight for age but the fillies allowance still applies. Enable is the clear favourite for a second win but and could be good enough to beat the better older male horses again. The Classic generation is represented by the colt Kew Gardens who won the St Leger and will benefit from weight for age but not gender.  

The weight for age scale has passed the test of time and few fillies would be competitive without the sex allowance. However, the best horses should win championship races and the weight allowances muddy the waters. Horses do develop physically from three to four and colts and geldings are physically stronger than females. Racing is rare in that both sexes compete in the same contests but it is not a level playing field. In most sports there are specific events and leagues for men and women but male and female horse run in the same races in racing. 

Since 2003 every winner of the Arc was aged three or four. Some top Flat horses stay in training as four-year-olds but very few run the following year. The winner of the Arc has much greater earning potential at stud than on the track. Treve won the Arc in 2013 and 2014 but came up short when the race favourite the following year at the age of five. She is the only back-to-back winner this century but she had the benefit of the allowances.  Enable races under the same conditions as Treve in her second winning year. The filly ran a great prep race on the All-Weather at Kempton. 

Enable was the 10/11 favourite in 2017 but was only the third winning favourite since 2004. In that time the SP’s of the winning horse ranged from 10/11 to 33/1. The average price of the winner over the last 10 years is about 8/1. Three of those winners started at double figure odds and two odds-on favourites obliged. The last two consecutive winning favourites won the race in 2008 and 2009 and despite not receiving the age allowance Enable can emulate those horses and Treve who won two Arcs in two years.    

The York Ebor Festival – By The Champagne Kid

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Next week is my favourite race meeting of the year, the York Ebor Festival. In the Q&A that forms the sales page for my Champagne Kid, I talk about the meeting and also the origin of the name for my racing advice service. The particular paragraph discussing my involvement with this marvellous meeting is below.

Can you tell us a fun betting/horse racing fact about yourself?

I have been to the York Ebor meeting for every day of every year for the last 20 years. Amongst the friends I go with, we have a competition picking 2 selections each race, with one nap and one NB each day. Points are given for each win (10pts plus SP; double if the nap wins) and the winner at the end of the meeting is designated ‘The Champagne Kid’ for that meeting (and has to buy the champagne for all at the end of the day). The title is held until the following year.

The one at the bottom of the table is given the ‘D A Nolan’ title (named after one of the losing-most trainers of all time). I am by a good way the winning-most ‘Champagne Kid” over the years but had a dire meeting last year and am the currently disgraced ‘D A Nolan’ title holder and have to wear the ‘D A Nolan t-shirt of shame’ at breakfast each day of this year’s meeting. I aim to regain the correct title this year!

The first Juddmonte International Stakes I saw live in 1998 was an absolute humdinger won by the Pat Eddery ridden One So Wonderful for Luca Cumani by a short head from Faithful Son (Godolphin / Frankie Dettori) with another short head to Chester House (Sir Henry Cecil / Kieron Fallon). Three jockeys at the peak of their powers and a pulsating two x short head finish. Although I had backed One So Wonderful, I still cannot believe that Faithful Son was not declared the winner. Have a look on YouTube for the race; freeze the frame when they hit the line and judge for yourself. I still think to this day they called it wrong. But, without a doubt, the best performance I have ever seen in the International was by the peerless Frankel. It was a real ‘hairs-on-the-back-of-the-neck’ moment when he cruised effortlessly into the lead at around the 2-furlong marker, and then lengthened his lead to the winning line leaving everything else floundering behind.

In this year’s International renewal, the older horses represented in the main by Poet’s Word and Cracksman (who may not run unless rain arrives) look to me to have an advantage over the Classic generation whose main hopes would appear to lie with Eclipse winner Roaring Lion and runner up Saxon Warrior. At this stage, Poet’s Word for me.

The meeting opens with a Class 2 sprint handicap over 5½ furlongs. The aftermath of this race usually consists in our group, of conversation once we have re-convened after watching the race in our usual spot in the Knavesmire Stand along the lines of “Did you have that? No, wasn’t on my radar. How about you? No, wasn’t even in my calculations. Anyone else? Nope?  Me neither!” It won’t be the last time during the festival that such words will pass between us after the winner of yet another fiendishly difficult handicap has eluded us all.

Leaving the almost impossible handicaps aside, there are plenty other top-class races to get your teeth into. There is the all-age Nunthorpe over the minimum trip which was in won 2010 by Sole Power at 100/1. My partner was on at SP, as she was when Arabian Queen won the International at 66/1. That’s what she does – 100/1 and 66/1 winners. Why bother with the 11/8’s and the 9/4’s when you have a talent for picking them at those prices? This year’s renewal looks to be at the mercy of Battaash currently about 8/11 in the ante-post market. Not the sort of price I am interested in, and he has already blotted his copybook in this race last year when he boiled over in the preliminaries and lost his race before the start. I backed him on that day, but won’t be backing him this year; not at odds-on. I really hope he puts on a performance somewhere close to his electrifying wins in last year’s Prix de L’Abbaye or the recent King George Stakes at Goodwood though. For me, this year’s Nunthorpe is one to watch and hopefully see a magnificent performance in, but I won’t be having a bet.

Going back to the handicaps, the highlight of the week is of course the Ebor Handicap over 1m 6f. I find it almost as difficult to find the winner of this as I do the sprint handicaps, but as it is the handicap highlight of the week, one has to find a bet or two in the race. At this point, finding a winner is complicated by not having a clear idea of who will participate. Willie Mullins’ 11 entries hardly help in clearing the already muddy waters.

Some of the horses who interest me at the moment for the Ebor are Godolphin’s First Nation (currently around 16/1 in the ante-post market), last year’s winner Nakeeta (around 14/1) who is bidding to become the first Ebor back-to-back winner in 95 years, and Ian Williams’ Saunter who won the November Handicap last year and has the profile of a typical Ebor winner. He is currently priced around 33/1, and I think at that price is worth a small each-way ante-post interest.

As I said earlier, this meeting is my favourite of the year. That is not only for the quality of the racing, but also for the whole ambience surrounding it. York is a fantastic city for a visit, with excellent pubs and restaurants. If I had to nominate one of each as favourite, I’d go for The Rising Sun as favourite pub, and Delrio’s Italian for favourite restaurant. Both wonderful places.

On the Saturday, the little competition in our group of friends will have come to an end, and I hope to be buying the Champagne to celebrate another successful meeting. I hope all Betfan readers and members have one too!

Rick’s Sports Betting: Ante Post Betting – By Rick Elliott

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Most betting on horse racing is done on the night before a race or on the day of the meeting. In the past very few races were priced up before race day but the onset of internet gambling has made the sector more competitive so firms now issue prices as soon as the overnight declarations have been made. Backing a horse in advance of a race can be fraught with danger but bookmakers now provide some insurance against non-runners or price changes.

There is a certain satisfaction in backing a horse at 10/1 and seeing the price drop to 5/1. We feel we have bet ahead of the move and feel quite clever. However, if the bet is settled at 5/1 there is no financial gain. If you don’t clearly state you want to take a price on a horse the bet will be settled at the starting price. This can go in your favour when a horse drifts but that generally happens for a reason. Some horses do win after drifting in the betting but generally there has been some negative information.

Websites and online newspapers now highlight the market moves when the price for a horse goes up or down significantly. Price moves have their own momentum. When bookmakers cut a price some punters take this as a tip and back the horse. This leads to a further contraction. The move may be based on a rumour and started by someone in the know but there will quickly be followers who put pressure on the price. Fake news can create betting activity and prices change in response to demand.

A relatively recent concession is best odds guaranteed on all horse races in Britain and Ireland. Some bookmakers also offer the same guarantee on greyhound racing. The concession means that if you take an early price and the horse wins at a shorter SP bets will be settled at the bigger price. In some cases the SP might be bigger than the board price but bookmakers will payout on the best price. This promise insures against a horse contracting in the betting or drifting on the day of the race.

Market moves can happen in ante post markets. A stable employee may be privy to an exceptional piece of work and back a horse accordingly. This is particularly relevant to young horses that have not run or are inexperienced. A two-year-old horse may look impressive on the gallops which can set a move for a future race in motion. Its worth bearing in mind that the favourite for the Derby over the winter might not even run in the race or start at a bigger price than was on offer in ante post betting.

Ante post betting can be attractive because the odds on offer are often bigger than the starting price. You can bet on the four major championship races at the Cheltenham Festival a full year in advance. In effect you are locking up betting funds and the trade-off is potentially better value. However, all bets are lost if the horse is withdrawn. The risk of not getting a run is offset by better prices which make some appeal to punters. Generally if a horse is a non-runner all stakes are lost.

Bookmakers try to make ante post betting more enticing by offering non-runner/no bet for some races. This means if a horse is withdrawn all stakes are returned. This offer comes into play in the lead-up to the Cheltenham Festival and other major races. However, the downside is that prices are less attractive so bookmakers are giving in one hand and taking from the other. Best Odds Guaranteed and NRNB are good concessions but bookmakers will compensate by cutting odds.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase

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Last week I covered my staking plan for Cheltenham, if you missed it, you can read it here. I also covered the Supreme Novices Hurdle and you can read that, here.

Having decided to cover 16 races in my analysis, today I’m going to look at the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

This showpiece is 2 miles and a Grade 1, Class 1 race.

First thing on the list when analysing these big races, is to look at the trends and this is a great way to narrow down the field and give us a head start.

Here are some of the key trends in the race –

30 of the last 32 winners had won over this course and distance 

16 of the last 17 winners had not run more than four times in the season

33 of the last 34 winners had an SP of 11/1 or under

14 of the last 15 winners were rated 160 or higher 

14 of the last 15 winners had one at least one Grade 1 race

The only horse that fits all of the trends, is Altior at a generous 8/11!

I generally look to oppose the favourites in any race where I’m looking for value, but when betting at the festival, we’re looking for as many winners as we can. This is because we have a short timeframe to make a profit, as we’re using a separate betting bank. On paper, Altior looks a machine and with previous experience of the gruelling test that can be Cheltenham, he has to be on of the festival’s bankers.

Min is the obvious threat but looking at all of the trends, I’ll be using Altior as a single and in some form of multiple bets.

I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at one more race and then it’s time to pack my bags and head down to the meeting! The excitement is already brewing here at Betfan towers!

There is one selection for the Turbo Winning System, today –

14:20 Southwell – Crosse Fire 

Finding One A Day – NAP

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The word NAP is used by tipsters to select their best bet of the day. More typical in newspapers, the meaning and origins of the word are widely discussed. The general consensus is that it’s an abbreviation of Napolean, which was shouted out by a player of the old card game when they had an unbeatable hand.

My favourite theory though is that back in 1770, Eclipse was unbeaten on his previous 10 races. A journalist at the time was convinced that the horse could not win an 11th consecutive race, so when compiling the papers racing section, he penned the letters N.A.P next to the horse’s name. When questioned by the editor as to what this typo meant, the journalist exclaimed Not A Prayer. The typo was allowed to stand but the horse, Eclipse, won by many lengths at odds of 1/10!

Another theory is that newspapers in general, never really took racing seriously but had to provide tips to their readers. As most journalists felt this task below them, they would ask the apprentice to run through the card and find the horse with the best chance. NAP, therefore, stood for Newspaper’s Apprentice Pick!

Whatever, the origins of the word NAP, as punters, it’s a great idea to be able to find our own NAP. Over the rest of this article, I will look at a quick and easy way to find your own Newspaper’s Apprentice Pick!

Go here first – https://www.oddschecker.com/market-movers/horse-racing

Select the first two or three horses that have steamed in the market –

In this case, we’ll look at Dragon Mall in the 16:40 Newcastle. Head over to the market and check that this horse is the most backed horse in the race.

Take a price with a BOG bookie and try to do this as early as you can. You’d be surprised how many times you’ll end up on the favourite of the race. Spread your bets around as bookies will soon shut you down if you keep beating the SP.

I appreciate this is a very simple system but we’re relying on the market, which is the most accurate indication of a horse’s chance. By finding these horse’s that are being backed in, we will make money over the long-term.

Before I finish up, there are two selections for the Turbo Winning System –

12:30 Ayr – Caventara

13:00 Ayr – Too Many Chiefs

Eddie Lloyd

Compare The Tipster

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Everything about the marketing for this service screams scam. It is typical appeal to greed and contains completely unverified claims about past profitability. Even more you are asked to believe that the service subscribes to hundreds of other tipsters and somehow manages to distil their recommendations into 3 selections daily. You have to provide an email before you can even get to the payment page and when you sign up there is an immediate up-sell attempt where we are told another 60 tipsters are used and will make life even better than the £80k a year we can now expect when following their tips. (In theory only 1 in 5 new members are invited to this bonus but that is as believable as the assertion that only 40 places are available for new members.)

If you resist the extras and stick with the main service you are then left in complete limbo until the next morning when your selections arrive. There is no welcome advice nor instructions on staking for the selections. A request for definitive instructions on this point was ignored. Incidentally I waited a couple of days before signing here as the suggestion was that places would go in an hour or so! Two months later they are still being sold and another giveaway is the availability of the service via the Clickbank affiliate marketplace. If you go to the trouble of setting that up you are looking to sell a load more than 40 places – I had at least 15 emails from differing sources offering the service so you can see this was not the true situation.

Selections emails appear early most mornings and merely give 3 selections (sometimes already non runners) with no price advice but just a note to place the bets for the win. I find it equally unbelievable that these tips are derived from other tipsters – the majority of services do not advise their bets until the markets are open and developed and and overnight non runners can be taken into account along with the latest going predictions. To be able to produce these tips by the time achieved is not going to be possible if their source is other tipsters. There is a veiled suggestion that they receive their tips earlier than normal subscribers. Again as likely as England ever winning the world cup again.

We are told that the process refines the possible down to find tips that are at least 70% likely to win – a rather nebulous assertion as it could mean that the horse is in the top 3 in the betting or that a strike rate of 70% is likely. Prices have ranged from odds on to double figures at the time of receipt.

But now the question that really arises is why make all these fatuous claims as the service has performed well in the trial. Nothing like the claims of course but a strike rate of 23% with 31 points profit at BOG prices based on taking a price on receipt of the email. With an ROI of 16.67% and approaching 200 bets the potential does seem good here. Just why the service does not help it’s clients maximise their profits is a bit of a mystery. If you look at the price options on the proofing you will see that waiting for SP is not a good plan. The best BOG day to date saw 16 points profit and there can be no more than 3 points lost daily if you back at level stakes.

You have to ask why the service offers tips for life at a one off £30 especially in the light of the performance seen. A monthly subscription would be more than justified if what we have seen to date is maintained. Of course the whole thing could just be a way of getting an up to date mailing list but there does seem to be a trick being missed here. While time permits I will keep going with the monitoring and in the light of the results to date I think we have to award a positive rating – that said I retain severe reservations about the long term potential but with the 60 day Clickbank guarantee available you can take a look risk free.

I would not be splashing out large stakes until a much longer proofing period is seen but this service might just be the exception that proves the rule. And still forget the profit claims – at the level we are currently seeing to generate £80k per year would mean level stakes of around £660. Any takers?

Update 31/3/2018: At the end of February I thought that my fears were going to be justified with a near 30 point loss and a downwards spiral. But March has been just the opposite with a recovery past the previous peak and we now are seeing an overall BOG profit of 31 points at a reasonably respectable ROI of just under 9%, The strike rate remains low at 21% but some good priced winners have been seen which compensate for the variation with the marketing claims. The chances of this being other tipsters work is still laughable – the timing of emails makes this all but impossible and I cannot believe that a serious tipster would offer selections with odds at 25 to 1 ON!

That said I have seen much worse than this service and if it could reshape into a credible form might be worth following.

 

Forget About Finding Winners!!

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I was asked last week by a friend of a friend how I go about finding my winners? I got a surprised look when I told them that I didn’t look for winners, in fact, that’s the last thing you want to do if you want to make a profit from backing the horses!

This may sound like a completely bizarre concept and one that would be laughed at inside every bookie up and down the land but stop to think about it for a second. Is the bookie looking for the winner? Who are we trying to get money from when we win? The bookie doesn’t really care who wins the race just as long as they have taken enough money on each runner in the field to cover their book. So if I’m not looking for the winner what am I trying to do?

My aim every day when I place my bets is to beat the bookie by not finding the winner but by beating him on his price. To illustrate that this works and is the most efficient way of making money this is what a trader working at a bookie will look at:

Customer 1:
This customer has backed 20 winners in the last 2 weeks and is several thousands of pounds up. The prices he has taken are roughly the same price as SP. Keep his account open he will inevitably hit a losing run.
Customer 2:
This customer has had 8 winners in the last 2 weeks and is a couple of hundred pounds in profit. All of his 12 winners have beaten SP by a long way. Minimise his account or limit to SP bets only.

As you can see, customer 1 is able to continue betting as he hasn’t beaten the SP whereas customer 2 is going to be shut down because although he hasn’t won as much as customer 1 he’s beaten the SP.

Customer 2 is much more of a concern than customer 1 because the bookie knows that he is likely to continue to make money by beating the SP than customer 1.

Have a look at your betting each day. If you are beating the SP then you will be in with a chance of actually turning a profit as you have maths on your side.

Have a look at the proofing charts we offer and compare advised prices with SP prices and you’ll notice a big difference in the profit margins 😉

Why You Should Always Take A Price

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The SP (starting price) is the most accurate measure of a horses chance of winning the race. If it goes off at evens then it has a fifty-fifty chance of winning and so on. This is the case 90% of the time but what of the other? The other 10% is what is called smashing the SP and the bookies are behind it.

The SP or starting price is effectively the result of people’s opinions expressed from their betting throughout the day and then finally at the course. The bookies have an opinion in the morning and they might think that a certain horse has a 10% chance of winning, therefore, it becomes a 9/1 shot. Remember that is just the opinion of one odds compiler and a pre-constructed odds line (or tissue in the trade) which is compiled the night before by another odds compiler.

There are so many variables in horse racing he can’t possibly account for everything and as the day progresses new factors come into it, like the changing of the ground or a jockey change on another horse, etc etc. The money starts to come as 1000’s of different opinions, angles come for that horse and it becomes apparent that the horses chances are a lot higher than first thought and then they have to shorten their odds.

There is a bit of a myth that when a gamble is going down its informed money going on, therefore, the horse is likely to win. Don’t get me wrong this does happen but a lot of the time it’s just a change in circumstances and with the age of the internet there are so many well-informed punters out there it doesn’t take long for the market to collapse.

Anyway, that’s the SP, what of this smashing it?

On the course, the SP is determined by between four to six on course bookies just before the off. An official will collate the average price available from these bookies just as the horses are set to go. Once the winner has been declared this is officially stamped by an official and then sent to all the shops, bookies head offices etc. Now what the big bookies do is when there is a large liability going down on a certain horse, for example, a multiple bet like the lucky 15 or a treble, they will need to lower the SP before the off so that they don’t have to pay out as much money.

I’ll use an example.

A punter in a shop has put a £10 treble on. First horse wins at 9/1. He’s got £100 going onto the next one which wins at 9/1 also. He’s now got a grand rolling onto the next horse. The punter hasn’t taken a price but the money’s rolling onto the favourite in the next. That favourite opens at 4/1 so at that price, the punter will stand to win £5,000. That’s a £4,990 loss to the bookie but of course, there is something they can do!

They smash the SP.

The on-course rep for the bookie in question will now go round to all the main bookies in the ring having £200 bets (if it’s a weak market or maybe £500 in a strong market). These £200 bets over several bookies mean the price will now go into 7/2, 3/1, 11/4. The horses leave the stalls or jump away and the bookies now only stand to lose £3,750 to that punter if the jolly wins. Of course, if it does they are collecting the money from the other bookies to go towards the punter’s winnings but if it losses they’ve only lost the money that other punters were having on the horse anyway.

The moral of the above story is the bookies are clever in how they reduce their liabilities which is why you should always take a price. You can’t beat the SP if you don’t take a price!!!

Caravaggio Is A Worthy Favourite For The July Cup – By Rick Elliott

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Caravaggio looks like being the best backed horse on a busy day of racing on Saturday and the Aidan O’Brien runner cannot be ignored for the July Cup at Newmarket. The race identifies the best sprinter in Europe and brings together the Classic generation and older horses over six furlongs at Flat racing’s headquarters. It is one of Britain’s most valuable and prestigious sprint races.

The race is part of the British Champions Series and the Global Sprint Challenge. Three-year-old colts and geldings carry nine stone, fillies of that age are allocated three pounds less and older male horse race under a burden of nine stone six pounds while the older female horses run with nine stone on their back. The race is run over the straight July Course at the home of Flat racing. The key form guide is often the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot won this year by The Tin Man.

The July Cup was first run in 1876, was given Group 2 status in 1971 and became a Group 1 race in 1978. The only three times winner called Sundridge prevailed at the start of the last century and Lester Piggott is the leading jockey with 10 wins between 1957 and 1992. Sunridge represented the leading owner and joint leading trainer who both had five wins with Vincent O’Brien also training the winner five times.

Since 2000 there has been one winner aged six, 10 winners aged 4 and 5 and four three-year-olds have won the race. The last 10 winners were in the care of different trainers while Paul Hanagan is the only two times wining rider over that spell. Frankie Dettori has never won the July Cup while Aidan O’Brien’s only success was with Starspangledbanner in 2010 but he trains Caravaggio.

The average starting price of the winners since 2007 is about 6/1 in a range from 7/4 to 20/1. Seven winners have started as favourite or joint favourite and one winner was the SP second favourite. The last four winners were returned at less than 5/1 so punters should focus on the first three in the betting which brings in Caravaggio, Limato and The Tin Man. Limato won the race last year so is trying to become the first back-to-back winner since Right Boy won the race in 1958 and 1959.

Caravaggio has been the horse for money this week. By Wednesday there was not much odds against about and the horse could start odds-on. A spokesman for Paddy Power summed up the feelings of the bookmakers in the Racing Post when quoted as saying:

“Caravaggio will be the best backed horse of the week come Saturday, and on what is one of the busiest days of the year, he’ll definitely be bookmakers’ biggest headache”.

O’Brien does like to hype his horses but he is suggesting Caravaggio is one of the best he has trained. The horse was an impressive winner of the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot but only three-year-olds were eligible. The fastest horse O’Brien has trained is a popular choice to make it seven wins from seven runs on Saturday. He would be the second three-year-old colt to win the race in the last three years and eighth from the last nine from the top three in the betting.

Limato is trained by Henry Candy who believes there is a weakness in Caravaggio’s profile but he is not saying much on the subject. The 2016 winner had the lowest rating of the last four winners and this year the field looks stronger. Limato was a slightly unlucky third behind The Tin Man at Royal Ascot and there is little to choose on ratings between the two horses. Limato could reverse the form but beating Caravaggio looks beyond him. The Tin Man seems booked for the payout places behind the favourite. Harry Angel has something to find on past form.

Caravaggio is taking on older horses for the first time but gets the handy weight allowance which could be crucial. He is reported to be in great form at home and mentally very laid back until racing. The horse becomes totally motivated to win races which he has never failed to do during a two season racing career. Caravaggio is facing his biggest challenge on Saturday but carries six pounds less than Limato and The Tin Man. It would take an exceptional horse to beat Caravaggio on these terms and the horse is the tip to win one of the most important sprints of the season.

 

Tuesday’s Horses In Focus

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Nice winner in last week’s horses in focus going off at a crazy price EDGAR ALLEN POE ended up with an SP of 15/2 and that was enough to ensure a profit for the day. A staggering SP the horse’s chance was there for all to see.

Here is what we said. ‘230 EDGAR ALLEN POE has improved in two starts and is beginning to look a decent type if the rate of improvement continues he should be bang there at the business end today. 11/2 looks a very nice price to me. I would have thought 3/1 was generous.’

I really did mean that as well I was expecting 3/1 from our pricing (we price up every horse blind to what the bookies have done this way we are not biased against a horse that has drifted and allows us to try and work out our own probability of the horse winning). To get that return SP was huge.

Tuesday’s Horses In Focus.

Brighton 6:15 Handicap (Class 6) 6f – COOPERESS 9/1 is slightly over priced, I remember the start of the season she was doing well at home and they thought that she might progress this year as she was a little weak as a 3yo. Well she hasn’t done well at all but this race is weak and the drop back to 6 may help as well as a bit of rain that should fall that would be my choice here.

Brighton 6:45 Handicap (Class 5) 7f – CHARACTERIZED is the pick for us at the top of the market but ONE BIG SURPRISE does come a really close 2nd. Both horses have great chances enhanced by a non runner The stalking Moon so maybe the right bet here is the reverse forecast with a chunk on CHARACTERIZED at 5/2.

Brighton 7:15 Handicap (Class 4) 12f – HEPPLEWHITE 8/1 in places is the value pick of the race. Ran a decent speed figure last time out and is from a stable who are coming into form. The price is decent and we could do well at Brighton tonight.

Brighton 7:45 Handicap (Class 6) 8f – JACK BLAINE 15/2 with bet365 must have a decent chance here yet the weather may not do him any favours. It was the same race at Wetherby that EDGAR ALEN POE came out of and hacked up and JACK finished ahead of him. Another horse to take from that race is KELPIE SPIRIT who may like the conditions and is a big price 14/1 and drifting. I certainly won’t be put off I think that Wetherby race is going to work out very strong form for the grade.

Pontefract 2:10 Handicap (Class 4) 6f – It’s nice to see JED O KEEFFE firing in some winners again after a few bad seasons and a ton of problems but they have really turned it around this year. Their horse COLLINGHAM PARK would make a decent bet and 7/2 looks quite big. The horse has improved on every run according to the ratings. Another to watch out for would be NOBEL MANNERS 8/1 looks a little overpriced.

Pontefract 2:40 – BAY STATION looks a big price at 8/1 he posted a decent rating last race and may go close here. The two at the top are dominating the early betting but it’s the DAPPER MAN that comes 2nd on our ratings.

Pontefract 3:40 Handicap (Class 3) 6f – MISHAAL 20/1 is much overpriced on the back of a poor show this year but skip back a year around this time you find a very different prospect. I think the horse will be somewhere near at the end. 20/1 is well worth the risk of looking silly. Even if the ground isn’t ideal.

Pontefract 4:10 Maiden (Class 5) 10f – BROADWAY DREAMS 3/1 is our Ponte Nap I think the horse will go really close today the rating he posted last race was well above any of these and with sds riding he is in very capable hands.

Pontefract 4:40 Handicap (Class 5) 8f – EDGAR ALLEN POE won with some authority last week and may well go in again today. 3/1 looks worth a small punt even though this race is harder. On our ratings KILBANA LADY has improved with every run and rates the main danger at 8/1 is well over priced.

Wolverhampton 1:55 Handicap (Class 6) 6f – BINGO GEORGE at 10/1 is just about a big enough price to get involved it’s a tough race but connections feel they will go close today and connections money will be down.

Back Next Tuesday.

Best Wishes,

Matt
Unity Racing Investments