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Rick’s Sports Betting: Returning Heroes At The Cheltenham Festival – By Rick Elliott

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This week’s article is relevant for the Cheltenham Festival next week but is also a good guide to a trend that can occur in subsequent years. It’s a discussion about horses winning races at the festival more than once.

There have been multiple winners of each of the four main championships races at the Cheltenham Festival this century. The atmosphere and the pace of the races is unique and some horses can’t cope. Other runners relish the experience and run well over a number of years and a special few win one the major races more than once. That information is valuable for next week’s meeting and in the future. Buveur D’Air is an odds-on favourite to win the Champion Hurdle for the second successive year.

Repeat winners happen because of the special demands of the track and the occasion. Every horse is trying and running on its merits so the best horse wins most of the big races. Course and distance form is carried forward from year to year which means there are instances of horses winning the same race more than once. Inexperienced horses or runners who have not contested a festival race before are at a disadvantage. Those that have seen it before excel from year to year.

Trainers and jockeys also contribute to multiple winners because they know what it takes to prepare and ride horses at the festival. Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins are the perennial leading trainer and jockey and that gives their horses an edge. Winning a race at the Cheltenham is a huge achievement because the racing is the most competitive of the season. If a horse has won one before the chances of it happening again are reduced. This trend is particularly common in the four biggest races.

Here is the list of horses that have won one of the four most prestigious races more than once since 2000:

Champion Hurdle

Hardy Eustace 2004 and 2005

Hurricane Fly 2011 and 2013

Last year’s winner: Buveur D’Air

Buveur D’Air has the best chance of winning a championship race in successive years. The horse was a comfortable winner of the Champion Hurdle last season and no genuine rival has emerged over the last 12 months. Faugheen is not the force of old and My Tent Or Yours has finished second in the race three times. Buveur D’Air has by far the best form in the race and can win the Champion Hurdle again.

Champion Chase

Moscow Flyer 2003 and 2005

Master Minded 2008 and 2009

Sprinter Sacre 2013 and 2016

Last year’s winner: Special Tiara

This is the only other race out of the four that can produce the same winner as last year. The race fell into Special Tiara’s lap because Douvan ran poorly and finished lame. Altior assumes the role of Douvan this year but there are no injury doubts about the horse. Altior is just about the best horse in training and Special Tiara is well behind the form on ratings so can’t win the Champion Chase again.

Stayers’ Hurdle  

Baracouda 2002 and 2003

Inglis Drever 2005, 2007 and 2008

Big Buck’s 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Last year’s winner: Nichols Canyon

Since 2000 nine of the winners of the stayers’ hurdle were multiple winners but sadly that is impossible this year. Nichols Canyon won the race in 2017 but was fatally injured in a race in Ireland. It’s ironic that the race that has produced most returning winners won’t be won by last year’s champion.

Gold Cup  

 

Best Mate 2002, 2003 and 2004

Kauto Star 2007 and 2008

Last year’s winner: Sizing John

Sizing John still has other chances but the horse won’t be winning the Gold Cup this year. Due to a pelvis injury Sizing John has been withdrawn which means the three most recent winners of the race will not be taking part. Another year will have to pass before the race produces a multiple winner.

So, only two of the four winners of the main features of the day from last year can win the same race in 2018 and Buveur D’Air has by far the best chance.

Bookies Are Already Offering Non-Runner No Bet On Festival Races – By Ian Hudson

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It’s still more than two months before the Cheltenham Festival but the battle of the bookies to win your betting pound has begun. Three major operators will give you your money back if a horse you back in five of the most prestigious races do not take part. You can combine this concession with best odds guaranteed which means bets will be settled at SP if that is a bigger price than the ante post price. The non-runner no bet offer has never been introduced in January before but three bookmakers will refund stakes on ante post wagers on horses withdrawn before the race day.

Here are some ante-post pointers for the five Festival races that apply:

Champion Hurdle

Faugheen’s inexplicably bad run in Ireland over Christmas made it a one horse race before the markets readjusted. Buveur D’Air would merely have to turn up and jump around the course to win the Champion Hurdle again. However, Faugheen has been introduced back into the betting but the horse now has many questions to answer. Assuming Buveur D’Air is home and hosed we must now identify some each way value. APPLES JADE would get the mare’s allowance and that could persuade connections to go down the Champion Hurdle route.

Champion Chase

Market leader Altior is some punters banker of the meeting and the horse’s form for this race is in the book. Politologue is the new kid on the block, proven at the highest level and is a worthy second favourite. Special Tiara won last year’s race but a recent fall at Kempton does not augur well when under pressure in Politologue’s last race. Charbel was upsides to Altior before falling at the second last in the Arkle Chase. The horse was still going quite well and would not necessarily have been outpaced up the hill. Even so at the ante post odds CHARBEL is an ante post wager worth making.

Stayers’ Hurdle

Sadly Nichols Canyon who the race last season suffered a fatal accident at Leopardstown over Christmas. Despite not winning the stayer’s championship for hurdlers Unowhatimeanharry had the best form leading up to the race. The horse then won at Punchestown and made a winning start to the season but was disappointing in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December after finishing second to 40/1 shot Beer Goggles at Newbury. SAM SPINNER won the Ascot race and is the favourite for a very open Stayers’ Hurdle but that is justified on form and ratings.

Ryanair Chase

This is the championship chase at the intermediate distance and the betting market is unclear because running plans have not been confirmed. Several of the leading contenders could be targeted at other races and that muddies the waters. CUE CARD is not the force of old and has been tried and exposed in the Gold Cup, falling in the last two renewals. The Ryanair Chase is now being considered and you can’t do much damage at the latest odds and you should get a run.

Gold Cup

Might Bite is being trained to run in the Gold Cup and will fall or win the race. The horse won the King George on Boxing day, a race that is seen as the mid-season championship for chasers. Sizing John and Yorkhill blotted their copybooks in Ireland and Thistlecrack finished six lengths behind Might Bite in the King George so needs to show plenty of improvement to reverse the form.  MIGHT BITE has given backers some thrill and spills but can win the Gold Cup in 2018 at Cheltenham.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Burnley busted many coupons by preventing Manchester United winning at Old Trafford yesterday but punters can get their money back by backing Manchester City minus one goal in the handicap markets in their Premier League fixture at Newcastle tonight. Burnley were a 14/1 chance to win their match and only a goal in injury time secured a point for United. City can go 15 points clear in the table with a win in the north east which would be an 18th league victory on the bounce.

Newcastle have been plummeting down the table in recent months but were impressive in beating West Ham away from home last weekend. However, it can be dangerous to look at one match form and the overall trends mean this fixture brings together a struggling side and a winning machine. There is an adage in football betting that you should never back an away team at odds-on but City are an exception. They have scored in the first half of four of their last five away matches in the Premier League but the bet tonight is CITY -1 GOAL at 4/6 with Betfair.

Michael Van Gerwen is by some distance the best darts player in the world and can confirm that status by winning the PDC World Championship again. We have reached the third round of this year’s tournament and tonight’s six matches involve three players with the word Van in their name. The nation that brought us Total Football is now the centre of the darts world but VAN GERWEN is head of shoulders above the two other players from the Netherlands. The Dutchman must be backed to win the world title at 8/13 with Paddy Power.

Betfan members were left in no doubt about the outcome of the King George yesterday. Might Bite was tipped as the winner if not falling and the horse is now the second favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup behind Sizing John who won the race last season. The feature of the racing programme today was the Welsh National at Chepstow but the meeting has been abandoned. The Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton (2.30pm) features a clash between the Champion Chase winner and leading contender for next year’s race. Special Tiara won that race at Cheltenham in March but POLITOLOGUE is the bet today at 8/15 with William Hill.

The Gambling Don

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Hi %%First Name%%,

I’ve been going racing at Sandown for a long long time and yesterday will live in the Don’s memory forever. We often talk about the things that are wrong in our sport but yesterday Sandown, the media, and more importantly AP McCoy himself played a blinder.

Because of the long goodbye tour many had began to feel that he wasn’t really packing in but as everyone walked in yesterday passed the huge banners with goodbye on them there could be no doubt at all, it really was the end.

Racing is bigger than any one individual but there was something super human about McCoy. If I’m honest Ruby is a better horseman and Geraghty is a better judge of pace BUT nobody has the tenacity and sheer will to win than AP. I have seen him on rainy days at Fakenham and Plumpton over twenty years when even one man and his dog had gone home, giving incredible power packed desperate rides.

I watched the morning line yesterday (I know it’s usually garbage) and McCoy looked forlorn and demoralised and I will wager anyone had he not said what he said in February that he would be riding on. He will be a lost for a long time and will be wishing he had continued but it is the right time to go. He is in one piece and though the hangers on around him won’t say it to his face he is not as good as he was ten years ago and that decline would speed up had he continued because whisper it… he is actually human.

So for being the best punters pal out there over an incredible career thank you and goodbye AP.

Though he was not a bag of laughs at the races one other thing I will pass on, I’ve never seen AP blank anyone or refuse a picture or autograph even in the last few weeks. That’s not the case with someone whose persona is much friendlier and a cheeky chappie when the cameras are on! Mentioning no names.

Wetherby for some reason feels the need to stage Flat Racing starting today. Last time the Don looked Yorkshire was full of brilliant flat racecourses. I would have thought Wetherby would have been better staging better quality jumps racing rather than flat, however it’s here, but let’s see how it rides before betting.

Sakhees Jem ran second at Newmarket in a race where the winner is extremely highly regarded so the fact she has placed the horse in the first at Chelmsford today makes me think a win is on the cards. Take the evens with Bet365 in the 2.15.

The Dons members had a cracking day yesterday with Menorah and Special Tiara both storming up the Sandown hill for us. We are well on the way for another superb year of profit.

So Trust in the Don he is A number 1.

Back next Sunday.

The Gambling Don

http://go.betfan.com/1000/119

The Gambling Don

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Hope you all had a great Xmas and Boxing Day and are now settling down to a Holiday Sunday of top quality racing from Leopardstown.

By now all the relatives should have realised they’ve outstayed their welcomes and buggered off home and it’s time to get the racing on and relax.

I’ve had two days at Kempton where the look on Alan Kings face as he passed me in the car park would have depressed Santa. This is a yard who I think need to be treated with a little caution as yesterday they had three faves which were backed off the boards. Balder Success who is starting to look like he must work sensationally at home but is surely no Champion Chaser. Every time he’s beat we hear excuses and then he is backed off the boards!

He got well beat yesterday by Special Tiara who hasn’t won for two years which tells you all you need to now. Things then took a turn for the worst as over in Ireland Uxizandre was Kings Raider for the big pot in Ireland. It looked a weak renewal and I had backed him early and watched his price tumble all morning as mountains of cash came. The performance was woeful and he was beaten before the home straight. On that showing theres more chance of Andy Bell winning the Booker Prize than him winning at Cheltenham.

Leg 3 of the King nightmare came in the last at Kempton as Chatez a promising novice was smashed into in the final handicap. I saw one leading pro get several thousand on saying the strength of the message was such that this was the handicap snip of the year. Well it was beat miles out and again won’t be winning at any Festivals.

King is a top Trainer but something is either wrong with the horses or they are being seriously overrated and fingers are being singed badly. I would urge caution in backing faves for a while and see what develops.

Leopardstown is where all eyes will be focussed today for some hugely significant Grade 1’s which will throw up Festival Pointers a plenty.

The star attraction and the Dons bet of the day is the mighty Bob’s Worth in the Lexus Chase @ 2.55 which he won last year in such brave fashion. We haven’t seen him for a long time but I view that as a positive and his reappearance last year was at Haydock which is far too tight a track for him. Henderson will have got plenty of work into him and there’s nothing in here fit to shine his boots. 7/2 Betvictor might look very silly at around 3.10pm. Back him to win and hopefully we get to see him claim another Gold Cup in March.

From the Dons Notebook

John’s Spirit

Despite his trainers wretched form and the King George Trip being too far I thought he ran Fantastic and when back at Cheltenham on better ground I take him to resume winning ways.

Join me in 2015, 2014 has been a massive winning year for my members and I aim to do even better in 2015.

I’m here to stay and it’s a proven long term advisor you need at your side so Trust in the Don.

Back next Sunday.

The Gambling Don
http://go.betfan.com/1000/119