Well the anticipation of the festival is starting to grip the nation. We are going to analyse the first day and hopefully provide a number of useful pointers to a few winners and maybe pick out a few negatives too.
The first day will kick off with the roar of the Cheltenham crowd as the supreme novices hurdle gets underway…
1:30 SKY BET SUPREME NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £68,340 12 runners 2m110y Good To Soft CH4
Race Conditions: £120,000 guaranteed For 4yo+ Weights 4yo 10st 13lb; 5yo+ 11st 7lb Allowances fillies & mares 7lb Entries 83 pay £ 150 Confirmed 17 Penalty value 1st £68,340.00 2nd £25,644.00 3rd £12,840.00 4th £6,396.00 5th £3,216.00 6th £1,608.00
- Irish trained horses have a great record in the race in recent years, having won ten of the last sixteen runnings.
- Sixteen of the last eighteen winners won on their last appearance before the Cheltenham Festival.
- Eight of the last 23 runners ran no more than twice over hurdles before the Supreme.
- Thirteen out of the last fourteen winners had raced at least once in the previous forty-five days before the Cheltenham Festival.
- The Royal Bond and Deloitte Hurdle have been excellent trials in recent years.
- British horses 5 yr with just 1 previous start have a poor record
- We want a horse that has won in one of its last 3 races
- Only three of the last seventeen horses to start at odds of 3/1 or shorter have won.
- We want a horse that has run more than once this year as horses with only 1 run this year have a poor record
- We don’t really want horses absent over 100 days
- We don’t want a horse coming from a handicap
It is a tough race to work out. What we can say is favourite DAUVAN is far too short with only 1 run this year he is a huge statistical negative and at quoted prices of 15/8 and 7/4 I would be against this horse winning.
Paddy Power are offering money back on losers if Dauvan wins. They are obviously in the same camp as us and know that if you back horses with this profile you will go broke in the long term.
Could there be a winner at 100/1 ? VELVET MAKER is definitely overpriced won its last start in a pretty good time, improving with each run it beat 20 other horses last time out comes from an Irish stable etc.
The horse has only ran once this year so has that stat to beat but it did run on the 26th of December so if any horse can beat the 1 run this year negative it will certainly be one that ran late in December.
We make the horse a 33/1 shot so 100/1 is huge in comparison and backing this profile over the long term will yield a profit, but is it the right bet for us to make even being overpriced it is a huge risk as we are still betting a true 33/1 shot. That been said December 2013 this horse finished 3rd 7 lengths behind VAUTOUR who went on to win this race last year by 6 lengths. The horse has ability for sure but does it have enough experience/ race fitness to really win.
The only other overpriced horse we can see is SOME PLAN @ 40/1
So its small bets here with a lay bet on DAUVAN