As you know I’ll be on holiday as you read this but I promised a post so here it is. I always take a holiday at this time of year as it helps to refresh me before I start my campaign for the jumps and all weather season. So that brings me to this post and I’ll be having a look at the new season and what to expect.
The start of a new season sees new and old alike starting their campaign for their respective code. The all weather season is a little easier to grasp in my opinion where as the jumps season can become a rather complex affair for us punters and traders alike.
We have horses that are running for the first time since last March over the jumps and on top of that we have changing ground conditions that can sometimes turn into a slog. The bookies usually clean up at this time of the year and straight up punters be warned it’s not the time of year to necessarily be agreeing with the market.
However having said that it can be an absolute profit pit for punters if they do their homework. I’ve listed some of the pointers that I look for in a horse when researching what to back/trade on. Although fairly obvious at first glance it would be worth noting that I ignore the market until I have found such a horse. You’d be surprised at some of the big prices that can be achieved early on and thus resulting in a profitable trade or massive value that will profit you in the long run.
1. Look for horses that have proven to run well after a long lay off. They don’t necessarily have had to have won but some that have gone close or placed could well be worth backing if running fresh.
2. When researching the night before check the weather forecast. I find the BBC site fairly accurate. If the course has declared soft the evening before but the forecast is for torrential rain then look for horses that perform well on heavy ground. Back them early as the market will react as soon as the rain comes. You could be one step ahead.
3. Keep an eye on trainers that have just the one runner and are travelling over 100 miles to enter the horse. They too will be aware of the weather and if it’s still declared at 10pm the night before then they must fancy its chances. Always back this up however with your own analysis. This information can sometimes go unnoticed in the market especially the night before.
4. Last of all when you see a horse pulled up or unseated rider displayed as either PU or UR in the form looks a little closer as to what happened. Horses can be dismissed by the market rather too quickly for such figures in the form but sometimes if the form was half decent before hand they could represent some good value.
So to sum up. Do your homework and you’ll find opportunities out there that can help you profit in the long term.
That’s it this week. I’m off for a cold Spanish beer 😉
Back next week,