I spoke last week about making the bookies our friends as of course they are the people that pay us. Onto today then and I thought I’d re-visit a topic I covered last year. Understanding the SP is certainly one of the most important factors when turning a profit from horse racing and I’ll go into why.
The SP or starting price is effectively the result of people’s opinions expressed from their betting throughout the day and then finally at the course. The bookies have an opinion in the morning and they might think that a certain horse has a 10% chance of winning therefore it becomes a 9/1 shot. Remember that is just the opinion of one odds compiler and a pre-constructed odds line (or tissue in the trade) which is compiled the night before by another odds compiler. There are so many variables in horse racing he can’t possibly account for everything and as the day progresses new factors come into it, like the changing of the ground or a jockey change on another horse, etc etc. The money starts to come as 1000′s of different opinions,angles come for that horse and it becomes apparent that the horses chances are a lot higher than first thought and then they have to shorten their odds.
There is a bit of a myth that when a gamble is going down it’s informed money going down therefore the horse is likely to win. Don’t get me wrong this does happen but a lot of the time it’s just a change in circumstances and with the age of the internet there are so many well informed punters out there it doesn’t take long for the market to collapse. Anyway that’s the SP what of this smashing it?
On the course the SP is determined by between four to six on course bookies just before the off. An official will collate the average price available from these bookies just as the horses are set to go. Once the winner has been declared this is officially stamped by an official and then sent to all the shops, bookies head offices etc. Now what the big bookies do is when there is a large liability going down on a certain horse, for example a multiple bet like the lucky 15 or a treble, they will need to lower the SP before the off so that they don’t have to pay out as much money.
So understanding the SP is important for us to turn a profit. Try to understand this and you’ll be well on your way to making a profit.
Back next week,