“I’ll bloody kill him,” muttered the guy stood next to me last Saturday whilst bracing myself against the cold northern winds of Haydock. “Why the hell did the trainer let him ride the horse, I could have done a better job the f’ing idiot.”
Bit of a harsh opening to this weeks article I’m sure you’ll agree but going back to the first race at Haydock last Saturday, I presumed the punter who was muttering expletives next to me had backed the second placed favourite in Aurore D’Estruval. Heavily backed on course before the race the 4 year-old for John Quinn went off 6/4 favourite and looked to be delivering the job in hand well when overtaken in the closing stages. The horse that had won at 9/1 had shown nothing in previous races whereas Aurore D’Estruval had won convincingly by 13 lengths just a fortnight before.
I walked away from the muttering punter and went about my business only to see that same guy three races later with his arms in the air shouting further expletives as a 25/1 shot got up to win by one and a half lengths and again I presumed he was on the second placed horse. So where am I going with this I hear you ask?
Emotions and luck in betting are probably the biggest problems we have as punters. Now I’m not suggesting for one minute that we should govern our betting according to luck as we need to be more logical about it than that but what I am saying is that even the most meticulously planned gambles can go wrong and get beaten a head. I see it all the time and this has to be attributed to bad luck. If the horse gets up close and just misses out we can’t blame the jockey or our judgement it is in reality just plain old fashioned bad luck.
As for emotions these are the most dangerous aspect of any punter. Getting excited about a winner and then cursing a loser is fundamentally going to flaw any rational decisions we may make about our next gamble. You can see this tying in with the man I saw at the track last Saturday and he just made the whole experience of being on course a miserable one and had he had a little more perspective could have calmed down and enjoyed the experience a little more.
I know it’s frustrating as in the first race as I’d backed the second placed favourite as well but it certainly wasn’t the jockey’s fault, it was a bit of bad luck at the end of that race and although I was a little frustrated, I calmly walked away and considered my bet for the next race.
So you see my point and talking of emotions, it continues to be a difficult month for all my betting and MATR service. We’ve had seven placed and some of them just missing out (bad luck again 😉 ) and only four winners. We are due an upturn soon though and I’m confident of that and as we continue through the month it is my up most priority to get a few planned gambles into the service so we can turn this round and walk away with a profit.
So that’s it for me this week. As I write this, today’s MATR tip has just come second by 2 lengths and it was the jockey’s fault today so I’ve thrown my arms in the air and called him something I can’t repeat on this here blog for fear of offending someone 😉
See you next week where I’ll be telling you another story of how my Grandad foiled the bookies and it was all to do with his car!