SOLID START IN JANUARY
Hello Good Morning and Welcome
With The Service for 2016 starting a couple of weeks in, only a short month but some profits nevertheless. Scores on the doors for January – Bet 51 Pts Profit 22.5Pts ROI 44.2%. As I mentioned last week if Pictograph had not lost a shoe it would have been Bet 51Pts Profit 35.6Pts ROI 69%.
We are light on Bets at this time of year but there is a long way to go and I reckon we will have bet in around 600 races before we Ring in the New Year. They reckon you should always have a Target and my Target for the 2016 is 501 Points. If it’s good enough for Brian Lara (and Levi’s) then it’s good enough for me. We will of course be going for the occasional big price plus the odd treble and acca. This might boost profits a deal should one or two oblige.
Having mentioned Up For Review in the column last week I was of course hugely disappointed to see him bow out at Doncaster. All the Willie Mullins contingent ran poorly on Saturday and Willie himself reckoned they might have caught a chill on the boat coming over, which as excuses go is a new one on me. The horse himself moved really well in the contest and coming into the straight I thought we were in for a cracking finish and I was relishing a mighty battle but sadly not this time. Hopefully there was nothing untoward and the horse gets to turn up at the Festival. If he does there’s a fair chance he might drift in the betting. If he does will I be going in again?? Just you Try and Stop Me!!!
Over the years I have backed scores of horses that have disappointed in their trials only for them to go on and reach new heights later on. When writing for The Racing and Football Outlook I put up Looks Like Trouble for The King George. I also said on Sportsadviser “Looks Like Trouble trained by Noel Chance is the ‘Young Pretender’ for the Blue Riband at Cheltenham in March and his appearance before the Bovis Chase would have had his supporters in raptures. A sleek classy sort, to compare him with most other Chasers is to liken a Rolls Royce to a bunch of Dump Trucks. He will take the world of beating in the King George prior to a crack at the big one”.
LLT then ran like a drain in The King George and drifted out to 20/1 in the weeks following. His win in the Pillar Chase at Cheltenham saw him catapulted back into the betting and he won The Cheltenham Gold Cup on the big day at odds of 9/2.
Another one last year was Pethers Moon. I said on my blog in April that this horse should be “a truly international star” and went in big time at Newmarket only to watch him get further and further stuffed. I was absolutely winded as if Tyson Fury had whacked me one in the solar plexus. He then comes out at Epsom in the Coronation Cup and a rank outsider at 25/1 in the morning. Held up last in a heat run to suit the front runners, he cut down top performers Dolniya and Flintshire and beat them for sheer speed to win in style and finally justify my aspirations for the horse.
Horses like Lahan, Sakhee, Dubai Millennium and others have ran below par and then came back to prove themselves Champions.. Even Jungle Cat ran bad when I first mentioned him. The lesson of course is if you have faith in a horse then KEEP THE FAITH.
Do I always follow this Mantra myself? Do I eck as like!! I put up Dominandros as a saver at Lingfield as I had him second favourite on my Tissue and he was sent off at 16/1. He gets beat sixth of seven runners. He comes out at Southwell in a poor race on Tuesday and I fail to include him even for a point or two. He returns 9.2 on the machine!!! I end up beating myself with a branch like John Cleese on the Specsavers Ad and in that episode of Fawlty Towers!! RIGHTLY SO!
Regarding types of excuses I have heard dozens over the years. I was at Wolverhampton one day when somebody said a runner called Elite Hope had bled in his previous race. As it was only a few days before I wasn’t having any of it and had a £2000 to £400 to win. Anyway it bolts in and I am feeling chuffed with myself. A few of the boys were discussing it after and I said that the theory was rubbish. One of the lads was actually the stable lad for Elite Hope who confirmed that as he was leading it back in on the previous Saturday evening it was pouring with blood out of his nose. This was one occasion when ignorance was bliss, this time in my favour!
The most unique excuse I ever came across was when a Rat bit through the wiring in a horses stable near to where the water was kept and where the horse drank from. It caused an electrical short and every time the animal went to get a drink he got an electric shock. As a result he got very dehydrated and ran below par even though the stable money was down. It was only when the stable lass got a shock herself some time later did she realise the problem. Just how long he had had been thirsty nobody knew but they made certain next time everything was ok before they had their readies on again!
When horses get unexpectedly beat there is usually an appraisal of what went wrong. I have to admit that when it comes to Post Mortems I can’t be asked. Let’s face it there is no money in it and the real reasons rarely appear straight away. At the end of the day the only one who gets paid at an Inquest is The Coroner!! Everyone else goes home with what they came with. Trust me if there was any wonga in it I would have every Sleuth South of Slough on the case. As above if you have faith in a horse it usually pays to give it another chance but I do baulk at giving two. The chances and odds of valid excuses for two poor showings is just too big.
Someone saw my writing on Best Mate on the Betfan Chris Anzani website and also on the Cuttings Section on my website and asked me if I had noted any other National Hunt horses to follow at that time. I said No and was asked why not. The reason being was that the Sportsadvisor management thought there would be little interest in a National Hunt Paddock Piece and decided to pull the Column. Not only did I highlight Best Mate but headlined it as well saying the horse was “A Tremendous Novice To Follow” and they still Pulled The Column!! The horse goes on to write Cheltenham History by Winning The Gold Cup three times in succession and achieving Legendary Status.
It seems there’s no pleasing some people – OBVIOUSLY!!!!!
The only bit of bad luck for The Service this last week was on Thursday when Eljaddaaf got a nightmare run at Chelmsford. The Marquis de Sade was well noted for Torture and if he had seen the rerun of this race he would surely include it in his Bag of Tricks. After a scrum of a start the gelding gets further back than Dancing Brave and cuts through the field like a machete when finally getting a run. He would have won five minutes with anything like a clear passage. I can’t see him going up more than a pound or two and I will be keeping a very close eye on him. He looks an athlete and off a current rating of just 57 it will not be long before he gets off the mark. He is in good hands with Deano.
Be Lucky and may The Gambling Gods be with you.
Back next Saturday.
Chris Anzani Racing
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