Hello Good Morning and Welcome
ANOTHER WINNING WEEK: CLIENTS ADVISED TO INCREASE STAKES BY 20% AND EXPECT PROFITS OF £10,000 THIS YEAR ON A STARTING BANK OF £1,000.
Another quiet week but we moved our profits to 39.76 Pts for our 4 weeks of operation which is near 20% Profit on an advised Bank of 200 Points. I expect us to improve on this as the number of Bets increases and as the pace of racing quickens in the next couple of months. I have advised Clients to increase Stakes by 20%. Therefore if a Client was betting £5 per point they should now increase to £6 per point. If we repeat this every month then the initial £1,000 Bank will grow to £10,000 by the end of the year. You can check my maths on the website http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/compound_interest_calculator.htm
This is line with my projected target of 501 Pts Profit for the Year which I am expecting to be very conservative. This No Guarantee of course but very much expected.
I suggested last week that when following Tipsters and especially if they are new to the service, Punters should start slowly, in moderation and move up stakes only when profits have accrued. If we do this every month with my Chris Anzani Racing Service we will carefully and gradually build up our Betting Bank. Of course there will be quiet months and possibly a bad month where we have to scale down stakes. But this should not be for long and we can recontinue and upping our Bets where appropriate.
It was a profitable week for us but otherwise disappointing. No hard luck stories and only 3 Strike Bets which all lost. So Far this campaign we have had 13 Major bets of 4 Pts and above and only 4 Winners. During 2016 I expect around 550 Major Bets with 220 Winners between 3/1 and 7/2. Therefore we have barely scratched the surface of what we are about to achieve this season. I have made some tipping mistakes as mentioned in prior articles but am starting to ease back into the role and feeling more confident every day.
I don’t like to put up each way bets in Stakes races. If there has been one way to get accounts closed quickly over the years it is to bet ‘snide’ each way bets in maidens or stakes races; where the favourite is odds on and where the bookie can only lose mathematically. It is weird but when I do bet snide I always lose. However on Saturday I put up Mr Caffrey each way @ 5/1 as I was doubtful about the Bumper Form of the favourite Walpole. Despite going a steady pace my horse quickly bombed out. Incidentally he would never have beaten the winner Walpole who looked a different league and should be followed off his new mark of 77. He is useful.
On Friday I thought Bishan Bedi was a Bet. The fav Captain Joy was returning after an operation and a long layoff and was unlikely to be hard fit. The second in – Political Policy needed a strongly run race over 10 or 12 furlongs and was bound to be found out by the slow pace. The rag was a stone wrong at the weights. I expected Bishan Bedi to Bowl along and have his rivals in a Spin as they followed in Indian File but he Swung left in the straight and looked a Wrong Un. The fav did me a Googly and my Bet was Doosra’d.
Cat Royale came to our rescue when popping in at Kempton on Wednesday at a nice price of 12/1 bog (19 bfsp). I was impressed by his guts when he was touched off at Lingfield the time before. I love attitude in a horse and give me Guts over Ability anytime. However I was told that the Mark Johnston horse Isharah was Ascot class but might just need the run. I went Eachy Waysy accordingly but mistakenly failed to go the maximum 2.5 pts ew. I think it was the pain of my failed EW Bet on Mr Caffrey still hurting my wallet and I eased back a little. The only other misgiving was that I had to take my boy to the swimming baths and missed the drift in the market. For those of you who snaffled the bf21 I would very much appreciate a drink. Thank You!!!
Before he went skint Eddie the Clock was always keen to remind anyone who would listen that “you have to be with them on the day“ (i.e. when they win). It’s no use following a horse and being on too early in their career and missing out when they do win. In this case we got it right by swerving Isharah but I will be watching him closely and reckon he is one to follow. If he is Ascot class who am I to say otherwise.
We are now counting down the days to Cheltenham and there was a shock when the Champion Hurdler withdrew from the stage. I have had only 2 bets so far – Up For Review and Vautour. After that I am Gus the Guesser and would very much appreciate advice. Suggestions on a postcard please (will accept email to save the stamp!!)
I have done Tipping on and off over the years, initially with the Racing and Football Outlook and a bit privately and have always shown a profit. When I last did it for the RFO one of my punters reckoned I showed a profit on the year of over 100 pts to a level stake. I said this was impossible as I was doing the cards early on a Monday morning for the whole weeks racing and when all I had to look at were the 5 day cards and where every field had upwards of 100 entries. To do the cards for one day with known runners was hard – to do it for a week from multiple runners was nigh on impossible. However my punter kept records and insisted it was correct.
The one bugbear about being a Tipster is that Proprietors want you to give just the one Tip – that is the Winner. You can make a case for all the other runners if you wish but at the end of the piece just give the name of one horse. When working for the RFO I had to rely largely on my list of Live Horses whether it was Gallops info or Paddock improvers or horses that had returned excellent speed figures and were well in wherever they went. So in that situation I was lucky to be able to come up with just the name of any one horse in order to provide a number of tips for the week.
I was reluctant to do another Tipping Line as all too often just giving the one tip does not reflect the way I play in the Markets and there can end up an antagonism between my tips and my bets especially where I am able to define more than one horse whose odds reflect positive value. Let’s put it this way. Let’s say I do my ‘Tissue’ for a race – that is My Forecast of what the Odds should be. I might make My favourite 6/4. I then look on Oddschecker and see it is 7/2. Obviously I have a Bet. But what if the second favourite on my Card is 4/1 and that horse is available at 9/1 do I ignore it? Furthermore I might have an improver priced at 6/1 who is available at 20/1. Do I ignore this one as well? When betting personally of course not. In this situation when it comes to tipping, clearly I would tip My fav as it has the best chance of winning but if I put up just the one horse then I am going to be fearful of the other 2 Value Bets.
I explained to the Chiefs in Betfan and asked if they would object if I were occasionally to put up more than one horse. They said – Fine but please do mention it in the Prospectus on the Betfan Chris Anzani webpage. This I have done. Clearly it is simpler to tip just the one horse but so long as Punters to my service appreciate the reason why I sometimes put up more than one horse they will see that it’s not that I don’t have faith in my Main Selection but there are other Good albeit Lesser Bets in the same race. In the above example we would have a 74.3% chance of winning if my Value prognosis is correct. Therefore the chances of Winning are improved and this also reduces the chances of the Dreaded Losing Streak.
One example was The Oaks last year where I made Legatissimo the fav on my Tissue. Crystal Zvezda was second in with me but one horse I could not leave out was Qualify trained by Aiden O’Brien. The filly was out of a Galileo mare and seemed certain to be suited by the step up in trip to 12 furlongs. She had sluiced up in the Weld Stakes at The Curragh as a 2 year old and was thought good enough to contest the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I was very impressed with her in the paddock before the 1,000 Guineas and she had clearly had done well physically. In the race however she tailed off. As the horse was unsaddled in the enclosure after the race I stood looking at the horse next to connections. They surprisingly were apologising to the trainer for the horses poor showing. I have heard a trainer make excuses to owners before now for a below par run but not the other way round. As they say – you couldn’t make it up. Anyway come Oaks Day Qualify was 100/1 in the morning and went off 115bfsp. There was no way I could leave it out. So when you see me tipping more than one horse in a race just know there is Method in My Madness!!!
Be Lucky and May The Gambling Gods Be With You.
Back next Saturday.
Chris Anzani Racing
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