Harry Kane arrives at Euro 2016 as the top scorer in his domestic league and playing for a country that could win the tournament. Robert Lewandowski averages almost one goal in two matches over 75 internationals for Poland. Scoring records in major football tournaments indicate if either player scores six goals in the Euros this summer they will win the Golden Boot. At a much bigger price Pedro could get in the mix playing for Spain who have won the last two European Championships.
Generally in tournaments a goal per game is enough to win the top marksman honour. In 2012 six players topped the charts but with just three goals but with an added knockout round the finalists will play seven matches. This market has produced big priced winners and the shortest price outright winner since the expansion of the format to include 16 teams was Alan Shearer at Euro 96. Bookmakers make a distinction between the top scorer and the winner of the Golden Boot. Fernando Torres won that honour in 2012 but five other players matched his tally of three goals.
There will be an extra round of matches this year so strikers could have an added two hours to score. The maximum number of matches is seven which means the top scorer should finish the tournament on the five or six mark. Another interesting trend is that not one of the top scorers in qualifying for the last five Euros has been the finals tournament leading marksman. Shearer is the last player to score most goals in his domestic league and then be the top scorer at the European Championships. Not one of the top scorers in qualifying for the last five Euros has been the finals tournament leading marksman. Wayne Rooney top scored for England in qualifying.
Kane struggled for goals with Tottenham at the start of the season and critics hinted he could be a one season wonder. But despite that slow start he scored 25 goals in the Premier League to become the first English player since Kevin Phillips in 1999-2000 to score more league goals than anyone else. Kane is a definite starter for England barring injury so could play seven matches if his team qualify for the final. England are fourth favourites and the only finalists to win all their matches in qualifying. Roy Hodgson has selected a squad that has the youngest average age of the 24 teams in France and most squad members have no baggage from previous disappointments.
Poland are as big as 50/1 to win Euro 2016 but Denmark in 1992 and Greece in 2004 won the championships at much bigger prices. Bookmakers see little to choose between France, Germany and Spain whose combined price is 4/6 to win the tournament. There is not one standout team this time so an outsider could get some momentum and upset the odds. Poland’s first group match is against Northern Ireland who are big outsiders to win Euro 2016. Goals are usually scarce in opening fixtures but if Poland score several Lewandowski could be on his way. His team will struggle to score against Germany but Ukraine could give up several openings. Lewandowski feasibly could score four goals in the group and go from there.
Pedro has scored 17 goals in 56 internationals for Spain so needs to improve his strike rate to contend for top scoring honours at the Euros. Bookmakers are offering place terms of each way, one quarter the odds and four places in this market so Pedro could sneak into the places with as few as four goals. The key to that scenario is getting game times but he is the most experienced striker in Spain’s squad. Spain are in a tough group with Croatia, Turkey and Czech Republic but if the midfield performs Pedro if selected will have enough scoring chances to trouble Kane and the rest but Harry’s the man this summer!