As promised a few weeks ago, I have put together a simple way of finding some value in the Over 2.5 goals market for those football bettors out there. We’re basically going to look at the last 10 seasons of each team in the Premiership and use a simple calculation to see if we can find some value in the current market for this Saturday’s games.
First up then, head over to the link below and see what games we have for the Premiership, this Saturday –
We can see that there are 7 fixtures and we’re going to quickly analyse these games using the head to head feature over at Soccerbase –
The first game is Chelsea v Leicester and we need to enter this into the team boxes. This will show a page with all of the games the two teams have ever played.
By scrolling down, we need to count how many games they’ve played over the last 10 years. I make it 10 games. From this, we then need to count how many games have resulted in 3 or more goals.
We enter this into the calculator, below –
You’ll see the odds are displaying as 1.25 in the top line, on the right-hand side. Now, if history is to repeat itself then these two teams should score 3 or more goals in 80% of their games.
We head over to the market and see what the bookies are offering –
We can see that we’re able to get best priced 1.57 for over 2.5 goals. I make this a bet and we can work through the rest of the games. If two teams don’t have 10 years worth of data, then we leave them out of our analysis and move onto the next game. If a game doesn’t offer value, then we leave them alone.
In the above example of our excel sheet, we can see that Crystal Palace v Burnley aren’t a bet because the odds available are less than our 3 (or 2/1).
This is what I will be betting on, this weekend –
All over 2.5 Goals to be scored in 90 minutes –
Chelsea v Leicester
Newcastle v Swansea City
Watford v Southampton
1 point Trixie ( 3 doubles and a treble) = total outlay = 4 points
If all games end in over 2.5 goals, then the return is 18.24 points, or just over 14 points profit.
Let’s hope for a good Saturday.
There are three qualifiers for the Turbo Winner System –
13:35 Clonmel – Draconien
15:15 Clonmel – Head Turner
20:00 Chelmsford – Marshall Aid
Good luck and catch you next week.