I am sure most Sports fans have at some stage or other indulged in fantasy football. Where you select a team of players who earn points for you in various ways such as the scoring of goals, assists for a goal, clean sheets for your keeper and defenders.
This style of grading a player’s performance on how he has performed has been adopted by some betting sites and offered as a market to bet on. Most notably Bet365 but also available at 888, Unibet, and Paddy Power as well.
The premise is quite simple the bookmaker will offer a points total on a player and will offer up two options to bet on of Over or Under the designated line offered by the bookie. Points are scored in the following fashion.
1 point per run, 20 points per wicket, 10 points per catch, 25 points per stumping. Stakes refunded on non-selected players.
As such Bet365 would offer you a line on usually 6 players with an example being:
Under 30.5 points – 1.83
Over 30.5 points – 1.83
This is obviously a very different style of market to the more traditional markets offered on cricket. It does have low odds but also obviously has only the two scenarios/runners in the market of the player either being over or under the line offered.
Despite the low odds on offer there is certainly value to be had in some instances when the market has been priced up a few days in advance and information comes to light after the initial lines have been on the site to be bet on.
An example of this occurred in the recent Ashes series between Australia and England. Moeen Ali is a genuine all-rounder who was England’s number 1 (and only spinner) and was selected to bat at No 7. Over the 5 day test match Moeen was offered as (3 days in advance)
Over 115.5 – 1.83
Under 115.5 – 1.83
The day before the Test match Moeen had damaged his hand in training and it was reported that he could well be playing as a straight batsman with not being able to bowl or have limited bowling he could manage with his injury. This news now made the line offered by Bet365 totally wrong with it being based on the likelihood of Moeen taking some wickets over the course the match (20 points per wicket). Moeen was out of form with the bat and batting at 7 would also get limited opportunity to make the big scores needed to challenge the line being offered and making it a very strong bet on Under 115 points for the match.
As is quite often the case being selective and waiting for opportunity is the key to making this market work. This can also happen in 20/20 cricket where the market is priced up and is available before late news of a change in batting order where a bowler who bats lower down the order with limited opportunity of scoring points through runs is likely to be moved up the order to bat in the top 3 and now has excellent opportunity to score points with bat and bowl.
An example of this was the excellent West Indian spinner Sunil Narine, who had hardly been seen with the bat for his various T20 sides due to being selected at 8 or 9 in the order was to be given the opportunity to open the batting due to an injury to Chris Lynn. This now made the overs bet on Sunil Narine excellent value with the change in circumstance and the original line (with him expected to bat low or not at all changing quiet dramatically).
I am going to add these style of bets as and when value becomes available on them as they offer a clear edge when opportunity arises
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