In this article Rick Elliott’s Sports Betting World examines a proven system for making money towards the end of the football season. There are a number of matches from about March onwards with very little at stake and in these circumstances there tends to be fewer yellow and red cards. When both teams in a match are not striving for a result the game is played at a slower pace and there are fewer physical contacts and fouls. Careful selection of these fixtures can pay dividends in the spring.
Over the last three months of each football season in any league there are “dead matches” when the games don’t mean much to each team. This trend is not unique to one league but the system can be applied to the Premier League. Many bookmakers issue odds on the number of cards so you can place your bets at the best odds to maximise the profits from this system. The qualifying fixtures bring together sides that cannot qualify for Europe and are clear of relegation.
History has shown over many years during the Premier League and in the old First Division the last weeks of the season produce far fewer bookings than during any other period. Professional footballers don’t intentionally drop a level but its human nature to lose motivation when there is little at stake. When both sides drop a level fans are not happy with boring kickabouts but they mean easy money from betting on indiscipline in a match.
From March until the end of the season in May many matches will produce low card counts. Bookmakers generally assign 10 points for a yellow card and 25 points for a red card. You can bet on the total being above or below the quote but towards the end of the Premier League campaign actual bookings totals are lower than average. This tendency is written into bookmaker’s prices to a certain extent but the odds on offer do not fully reflect the statistics for end of season matches.
In order to profit from this trend you must identify the right matches for your low cards count bets. When both teams are free from the drop and neither team has a chance of qualifying for Europe the card score will tend to be relatively low. In the first weekend in September the average card count tends to be about 35 but on the last weekend of the season that average drops to about 26. The figure is even lower for the carefully selected meaningless matches.
You must also factor the referee into your betting. Some of the men in the middle are more prone to showing cards while others try to avoid formal discipline. The latest referee stats are available online so you can identify the low card count refs. A number of referees will find any excuse to show a card while others will manage fouls and other breaches of the rules by talking to the players. Identifying the appropriate refs is the final piece in the jigsaw.
So here are the three qualifying criteria used to identify a good opportunity to bet under the quote for bookings:
- Both sides without relegation issues.
- Qualification for Europe is highly unlikely.
- Low card points referee.
Once you have placed your bets on low card counts you can gain some pleasure from these potentially boring matches.