It’s Guineas weekend on the Rowley Mile and down here in Newmarket there is a massive sense of anticipation for the first Classics of the season.
It’s all about the 2000 Guineas today of course and Ballydoyle Maestro Aiden “Listen Richi” O’Brien runs the red hot fave Churchill currently a 5/4 shot.
He was an impressive horse at 2 and Aiden “listen Mike” O’Brien has a great record in the race so yes he has a big chance. But let me play devils advocate here and say he also had the odds on fave here stuffed last year and many of his runners this year have been awful. He may well win but his form is not so far ahead of the others to justify those odds at all. It is lazy bookmaking and we should look elsewhere.
Martyn Meade runs the Frankel Colt Eminent and he won the Craven in style going away but that trial has been a poor guide on the whole in recent years and I’m not sure he is good enough. Al Wukair carries the French hopes and has been well supported but I’m not convinced he will act on this track or if his form is good enough anyway.
The trial I’m concentrating on is the Greenham at Newbury where I’m convinced we saw two group 1 performers in the shape of Dream Castle and Barney Roy. I flagged up my “love” for Dream Castle to you after seeing him at Doncaster but lets deal with Barney Roy first. He has been a very well backed horse since winning the Greenham under James Doyle and is now 7/2 clear second favourite. Clearly hugely talented he must have a major chance of landing this but he is 7/2 the horse he beat Dream Castle is 18/1!
Dream Castle did everything wrong at Newbury and was given a dreadful ride by the dreadful Oisin Murphy to be beaten 2 lengths. Today we have the brilliant stronger in form Sylvester de Sousa on board and the horse is wearing a hood which will make a massive difference. I believe he will settle him and then kick on three out. This horse is a major talent and can be backed at 18/1 each way with BetBright.
I have other max bets today on the Simon Holden Racing Club and some massive gambles lined up for tomorrow 1000 Guineas day.
We had a brilliant April and I’m planning an even better May so get with me!
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Back next Saturday.
Simon Holden Racing Club