Last week I covered my staking plan for Cheltenham, if you missed it, you can read it here. I also covered the Supreme Novices Hurdle and you can read that, here.
Having decided to cover 16 races in my analysis, today I’m going to look at the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
This showpiece is 2 miles and a Grade 1, Class 1 race.
First thing on the list when analysing these big races, is to look at the trends and this is a great way to narrow down the field and give us a head start.
Here are some of the key trends in the race –
30 of the last 32 winners had won over this course and distance
16 of the last 17 winners had not run more than four times in the season
33 of the last 34 winners had an SP of 11/1 or under
14 of the last 15 winners were rated 160 or higher
14 of the last 15 winners had one at least one Grade 1 race
The only horse that fits all of the trends, is Altior at a generous 8/11!
I generally look to oppose the favourites in any race where I’m looking for value, but when betting at the festival, we’re looking for as many winners as we can. This is because we have a short timeframe to make a profit, as we’re using a separate betting bank. On paper, Altior looks a machine and with previous experience of the gruelling test that can be Cheltenham, he has to be on of the festival’s bankers.
Min is the obvious threat but looking at all of the trends, I’ll be using Altior as a single and in some form of multiple bets.
I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at one more race and then it’s time to pack my bags and head down to the meeting! The excitement is already brewing here at Betfan towers!
There is one selection for the Turbo Winning System, today –
14:20 Southwell – Crosse Fire
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