It’s the last week of the month and we have lots of exciting bets in the pipeline. We are working hard to get this month back on track and all our energy is going in to making that happen. It is still possible and plausible that we can make a profit from the month. All it takes is one really good day and in this game no one knows when the next will come but be sure it will!
Tuesday and Glorious Goodwood begins we love this meeting and it has always been good for us historically usually warming up towards the weekend.
Mark Johnson is in great form and he loves this meeting and I’m expecting a few big priced winners from that stable. My friend rides out there and he says there are a couple of dark horses that should love the track. 5/1 for top trainer doesn’t sound like a bad punt and Coral really need applauding for another great betting Guarantee to lose £500 to any customer after 11am on the day of racing. This follows the other ones they have made in the past and if others follow suit it can only be good for the winning punter. It’s hard to get bets matched that’s for sure!
A 200/1 winner yesterday at Wolverhampton DANDY FLAME a 2yo son of Dandy Man and a great performance to blight the odds. You certainly don’t see them every day and not in a 9 runner race although I doubt anyone made any serious money I do like to think that someone that needed it put on a tenner at the 1000 that was available on betfair and made enough to change their lives. That would certainly be a nice story.
Ok let’s have a look at the festival hopes…
GOODWOOD 14:00 – The fore mentioned Johnson stable have 3 running here with STARS OVER THE SEA possibly having the best chance on paper. Although FIREFIGHTING beat team mate REVOLUTIONIST last time and I think the latter will be able to reverse that this time. I think the jockey got the fractions wrong at a trip that the horse only just gets if ridden up top he could be worth a small punt at 12/1. ERIC THE RED also comes from a team bang in form and has interesting form from Ireland.
14:35 – On paper it’s a match between BOYNTON and WAR DECREE both have run together before and the first named won. I’m not sure why I can see any argument for a reversal of form but we are taking fractions of seconds in this game so who knows. It has made a bit of value behind though as the markets poor onto these 2. MEDIEVAL came 4th in the Coventry over 6f and may not be too far away if staying the extra furlong 20/1 is quite a big price. While THUNDER SNOW at 12/1 also looks value for money I think the top 3 will come from these 4 horses.
15:10 – DUTCH CONNECTION is the one for me here. This is a serious racehorse in the making 5/2 looks fair for the bet. You know us though we can’t help being interested in one at a price and the kirk team that came good for us with that 33/1 Epsom winner have DREAM DUBAI 28/1 outpaced over 6 last time the extra furlong should help but the horse we make a 12/1 chance so 28/1 we simply have to have a tickle.
15:45 GOLD PRINCE comes from the kirk yard also and also looks to have a chance today 10/1 is about the right price which makes it really hard to bet. QEWY has looked good over jumps last season but also looked like he would be much better if the obstacles were not in his way! I like him today at 7/1 and A SOLDIERS LIFE too but there really isn’t much value in any horse in the top ranks of the market in this race. HAVANA BEAT and NOTERISED are also heading for the short list.
16:20 I think THESME deserves to win a good prize but I can’t take the price the horse is offered. I think the form of the race ROYAL BIRTH won was stronger so that brings out plenty of horses MALIJA, BOWSON FRED, BOOM THE GROOM and UNION ROSE. All finished within a few lengths of each other. The only form line that looks stronger is the race HAYCHEWD contested behind monsieur Joe and that makes the horse look a value play at 14/1 and maybe makes us put on a few quid with them all as we try land combination forecast and tricast.
16:55 The market has sided with HARRYS ANGEL and it’s not hard to see why that was a really nice first run but often the market gets seduced by horses finishing 2nd first time out so there is often no value in this type of bet. BEST SOLUTION, MAYAZOUN and RICH AND FAMOUS also have to be on the list it could be worth while using Harry as a saver when playing a larger bet on MAYAZOUN and small e/w bets on the other 2 horses again with combination forecast included.
17:30 – PURE ART is looking very interesting near the top of the market 11/4 looks value as a saver but I would rather take a risk on a decent reward BELEAVE at 14/1 looks very good value for money and again the kirk stable have another overpriced horse in PACOLITA at 25/1. I’m not sure if it is unfashionable to bet this stable but they have some good chances today at some huge prices a Trixie to e/w small stakes may well be in mind.
Anyone who joins today will get our thoughts on every race at GOODWOOD over the next 5 days!
Back Next Tuesday.
Matt – Unity Racing Club