Value in Over 2.5 Goals II

Today I’m going to repeat last week’s article and I have put together some simple ways of finding some value in the Over 2.5 goals market for those football bettors out there. We’re basically going to look at the last 10 seasons of each team in the Premiership and use a simple calculation to see if we can find some value in the current market for this Saturday’s games.

First up then, head over to the link below and see what games we have for the Premiership, this Saturday –

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/scores-fixtures/2018-01-20

We can see that there are 8 fixtures and we’re going to quickly analyse these games using the head to head feature over at Soccerbase –

http://www.soccerbase.com/teams/head_to_head.sd

The first game is Brighton v Chelsea and we need to enter this into the team boxes. This will show a page with all of the games the two teams have ever played.

By scrolling down, we need to count how many games they’ve played over the last 10 years. We can see that these two teams don’t have enough data for us to analyse, so we move onto the next game –

We have enough data for this game so we input the data into the top part of the calculator –

You’ll see the odds are displaying as 1.8 in the top line, on the right-hand side. Now, if history is to repeat itself then these two teams should score 3 or more goals in 56% of their games.

We head over to the market and see what the bookies are offering –

We can see that we’re able to get best priced 1.62 for over 2.5 goals. I make this a no bet as the bookies price is too short. We now work through the rest of the games. If two teams don’t have 10 years worth of data, then we leave them out of our analysis and move onto the next game. If a game doesn’t offer value, then we leave them alone.

This is what I will be betting on, this weekend –

All over 2.5 Goals to be scored in 90 minutes –

Everton v West Brom 

Leicester v Watford

1 point double = total outlay = 1 point

If they both result in over 2.5 goals then the payout is 4.81 points

Let’s hope for a good Saturday.

OVER 2.5 GOALS CALCULATOR

There are three qualifiers for the Turbo Winner System –

14:20 Southwell – Letmestopyouthere

14:35 Ludlow – Lygon Rock

15:10 Ludlow – Now Ben

Good luck and catch you next week.

Eddie Lloyd