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Professional Betting Advice –
Today I wanted to go through a very simple strategy that enables you to create your own basic football tissue (or odds line).
By heading to this page here we can see all of the results of Liverpool v Middlesbro who are playing Sunday –
At the top, you’ll see these stats –
To create a tissue we need to add the total number of games they’ve played between them. In this case, it would be 143 games.
So to create our odds we need to do the following –
Liverpool Wins = 62
62/143 = 0.4335 * 100 = 43.36%
This is the percentage chance of Liverpool to win if history repeats itself. To turn this into odds we divide this percentage into 100 which comes to 2.31
We repeat the same math for the draw and Middlesbro.
Draw = 3.58
Leicester = 3.49
I have built one of my excel calculators which you can download here –
This is what it looks like –
You simply fill in the yellow boxes and the red boxes will automatically update themselves with your odds.
Now, this is obviously a very simplistic model but it’s the foundations of building a tissue which professionals use every day to calculate their value and make long term profits.
We can build on this by adding in either our own knowledge or researching media outlets.
For example, if you have three positive factors for Liverpool and three negatives for Middlesbro you would do the following –
We have 6 more factors which we add to the games played section on the excel sheet. The more you come up with the more accurate your tissue will become.
So we add the 6 factors to get 149 and add 3 to the 62 for Liverpool (as these are positives) and take 3 away from Middlesbro (as these were negatives).
We now have altered figures like this –
So we need to add as much information as we can to get a more accurate tissue.
By the way, the 4/1 about Liverpool, that the above offer is giving you is massive value as you can see!
General Sporting Event Previews –
Atletico Madrid used to play on the other side of the tracks to Real Madrid and the Vicente Calderon was often worth a goal start. The club have moved to a new modern stadium in another part of the city and results have been decent so far. However, it’s on the big occasions like a Champions League match against Chelsea that the crowd can make a difference and the visitors can avoid defeat tonight.
Atletico played six Champions League matches at their old ground last season and won five and drew one of those fixtures. They beat Bayern Munich and Real Madrid on their old stomping ground but only beat Leicester 1-0 in the home leg of their quarter final and the winning goal came about from a questionable penalty. Chelsea can get a DRAW in this fixture tonight:
Manchester United have a trek to Moscow and a match against CSKA. The home team have conceded at least one goal in their last 40 Champions League group games. That’s quite a run and they always find a way to let one in. CSKA have lost four of their last ten matches at home which suggests UNITED can return to Manchester with all three points after winning this match:
Win Money Backing The Young Ones!
In racing contests for two-year-olds can be tricky to work out. However, its worth noting that 66% of such races are won by a horse that won or was placed last time out. Here are three reasons why:
- Juveniles race against each other so the form is solid.
- Races are sprints so tactics are not important.
- Young horses are enthusiastic.
July to September is the best time to profit and there is one horse today that ticks all the boxes. BARTON MILLS finished second on debut and can go one better in the 6.40pm race at Kempton this evening:
Focusing on horses that won or made the frame on their previous outing is a great strategy for betting in races for two-year-olds and it can deliver again!
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