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Cheltenham 2015 – “Cheltenham Goes Dutch”

March 8, 2015 By Ed Leave a Comment

The ‘Cheltenham Roar’ fast approaches and as the runners and riders of the first race, the Supreme Novices hurdle set off and mark the start of the biggest race meeting we have seen, the roar will be deafening.

In this article I will be looking closely at my “Cheltenham Goes Dutch” ante-post portfolio. This consists of the three TOP races at the festival. I will go through the history, key trends and importantly, how I am going to bet these three big races for profit using a technique called ‘Dutching’.

It’s an important fact to make, but I always use a separate betting bank for Festival meetings, totally separate from my everyday betting business funds. I would recommend everyone do this. This is NOT an everyday meeting.

Okay, lets get stuck into these three races.

Day One – Champion Hurdle

The Champion Hurdle is one of the most coveted and fiercely contested hurdle races in national hunt racing.

The Champion Hurdle is an old race with a rich Cheltenham Festival heritage stretching back to 1927 when Blaris won the first ever race, ridden by George Duller. The race is a Grade 1 National Hunt hurdle race and is run on the Old Course at Prestbury Park.

Entry to the Champion Hurdle is restricted to four-year-old and above horses that are required to jump eight hurdles during the 2 mile, 11 yard race.

Recent Winners

Date Track Winner Winning Odds
11.03.2014 Cheltenham Jezki (IRE) 9/1
12.03.2013 Cheltenham Hurricane Fly (IRE) 13/8
13.03.2012 Cheltenham Rock On Ruby (IRE) 11/1
15.03.2011 Cheltenham Hurricane Fly (IRE) 11/4
16.03.2010 Cheltenham Binocular (FR) 9/1

Trends

The Irish Champion Hurdle has strong credentials towards the winner of this race. The Irish Champion Hurdle ran at Leopardstown has produced eight Cheltenham Festival winners, six Irish Champion hurdlers have gone on to win the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle.

Therefore, the one to note there is Hurricane Fly.

Last Run Position

All winners have finished in the first four on their previous run.

Horses Age

The winners have been aged between 5-9. The main focus of the winners has been 6yo or 7yo horses, particular 7yo’s who have won on six occasions for a level stake profit of +29.19 points.

Position In Market

Favourites have a produced the most winners in this race, although other winners have generally come from the first five in the market.

Days Since Last Run

Ideally you are looking for a horse that last ran between 16-60 days.

Previous Winning Trainers With Runners

W P Mullins (2)
N J Henderson (2)
P F Nicholls (1)
A P O’Brien (3)
Mrs John Harrington (1)
Phillip Hobbs (1)

Race Conclusion

Hurricane Fly won the Irish Champion hurdle beating last years Cheltenham Champion Jezki. But although he meets some criteria the fact that he is an 11yo counts against him, as no 11yo has won this race. However, It would not be a total surprise to see him make the frame at least.

Looking through all the main trends above this is the short list.

Artic Fire,
Faugheen
Jezki

So we are down to three. Festivals can be very difficult to get 100% right, so what I am going to use is a technique called ‘dutching’ to cover myself just in case. This is purely covering more than one horse in a race.

Faugheen is the main fancy, technically just fails on the days since last run, although there has been a winner from that time span previously. Given he is the favourite, trained by Willie Mullins I’m happy to include him in my bet plan.

I am covering all three as follows to Ante-Post prices quoted.

Faugheen – £40 Win @ 5/4
Jezki – £15 Win @ 6/1
Artic Fire – £5 Win @ 16/1

 

Day Two – Queen Mother Champion Chase

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is the feature race of day two of the Cheltenham Festival.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is a race that dates back to 1959 when it was first run as the Champion Chase and won by Quita Que, ridden by Bunny Cox. The Champion Chase was renamed the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 1980 to mark the Queen Mother’s 80th birthday.

The Queen Mother was also honored for being a keen patron of national hunt racing throughout her life, and attended the Cheltenham Festival past her 100th birthday. The Queen Mother also owned and managed a number of national hunt racehorses.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is a Grade 1 steeplechase run over 2 miles on the main racecourse at Prestbury Park. Horses competing in the race are five-years-old and above, and are required to jump twelve fences during the race.

Recent Winners

Date Track Winner Winning Odds
12.03.2014 Cheltenham Sire De Grugy (FR) 11/4
13.03.2013 Cheltenham Sprinter Sacre (FR) 1/4
14.03.2012 Cheltenham Finians Rainbow (IRE) 4/1
16.03.2011 Cheltenham Sizing Europe (IRE) 10/1
17.03.2010 Cheltenham Big Zeb (IRE) 10/1

Trends

The Victor Chandler chase run in January at Ascot has the reputation as key preparation for the Queen Mother Chase.

But more significantly there is a superior trend that needs noting. In the last 20 years NINE Victor Chandler Chase winners have gone on to win at the Cheltenham Festival, including six Champion Chase winners and two Cheltenham Gold Cup winners.

The Tingle Creek Chase run at Sandown In early December is regarded as another race which grooms future Queen Mother Chase winners. Nine horses placed in the Tingle Creek have gone on to win the Queen Mother Chase. Of these, three were winners of the Tingle Creek.

The one to note here is Dodging Bullets who won both of these races!!

Last Run Position

Those horses finishing first last time produce the most winners, and third, the next best.

Horses Age

The winners have been aged between 5-11. The main focus of the winners has been 6-9 year old horses. Only one 5yo has run in the race and WON, which was Master Minded back in 2008.

This year there is one horse entered who is a 5yo, that is Clarcam trained by Gordon Elliot.

Position In Market

Generally winners are in the first six in the betting, but the main area of concentration should be the first three, which has produced the most winners.

Days Since Last Run

Ideally you are looking for a horse that last ran between 31-60 days.

Previous Winning Trainers With Runners

P F Nicholls (3)
N J Henderson (2)
Henry De Bromhead (2)
A. King (1)

Race Conclusion

There two very clear selections that meet all criteria of the key trends I have identified. I don’t see Sire De Grugy winning this year as the preparation has not been right.

The main fancy has got be Dodging Bullets, has impressed and of course meets every criteria, including winning the Victor Chandler Chase. But Sprinter Sacre also plays a bit part, and if reports are correct, the spark is back.

It makes for a thrilling race and I am going to cover those two as follows:

Sprinter Sacre – £25 Win @ 11/4 BetVictor
Dodging Bullets – £18 Win @ 11/2 BetVictor

 

Day Four – Cheltenham Gold Cup

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the most prestigious Grade 1 steeplechase in National Hunt racing, and the highlight of the Cheltenham Festival. Apart from the Grand National, no other horserace in Great Britain attracts such interest from punters and fans alike.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is run on the New Course at Prestbury Park. The race is the feature race of Ladies’ Day at the Cheltenham Festival, and sees racehorses taking on a 3-mile, 2½ furlong course featuring 22 fences.

Recent Winners

Date Track Winner Odds
14.03.2014 Cheltenham Lord Windermere (IRE) 20/1
15.03.2013 Cheltenham Bobs Worth (IRE) 11/4
16.03.2012 Cheltenham Synchronised (IRE) 8/1
18.03.2011 Cheltenham Long Run (FR) 7/2
19.03.2010 Cheltenham Imperial Commander (IRE) 7/1
13.03.2009 Cheltenham Kauto Star (FR) 7/4
14.03.2008 Cheltenham Denman (IRE) 9/4
16.03.2007 Cheltenham Kauto Star (FR) 5/4
17.03.2006 Cheltenham War Of Attrition (IRE) 15/2
18.03.2005 Cheltenham Kicking King (IRE) 4/1
18.03.2004 Cheltenham Best Mate (IRE) 8/11
13.03.2003 Cheltenham Best Mate (IRE) 13/8
14.03.2002 Cheltenham Best Mate (IRE) 7/1
16.03.2000 Cheltenham Looks Like Trouble (IRE) 9/2
18.03.1999 Cheltenham See More Business (IRE) 16/1
19.03.1998 Cheltenham Cool Dawn (IRE) 25/1
13.03.1997 Cheltenham Mr Mulligan (IRE) 20/1

Trends

The key race here is the The King George VI Chase run at Kempton on Boxing Day. One of the toughest races in National Hunt racing. Run at Kempton on Boxing Day it has a massive reputation for producing Festival winners.

In the last twenty years winners of the King George VI Chase has produced fourteen Cheltenham Festival winners. This includes NINE Cheltenham Gold Cup winners.

The one to note here is Silviniaco Conti.

Last Run Position

Those horses finishing first last time produce the most winners, but second or third last time comes into the equation.

Horses Age

The winners have been aged between 6-10. The main focus of the winners has been 7-9 year old horses. Only one 10yo has won and that was Cool Dawn back in 1998.

Position In Market

Generally winners come from the first three in the betting. In fact favourites have a level stake profit of +5.61 points. Third favourites are also in profit to the tune of +12.5 points.

Days Since Last Run

Ideally you are looking for a horse that last ran between 31-90 days. Those running 61-90 days last time out show a level stakes profit of +13.11 points.

Previous Winning Trainers With Runners

P F Nicholls (4)
N J Henderson (2)
Jonjo O’Neil (1)
J H Culloty (1)
M F Morris (1)

Race Conclusion

All the front three in the market meet all key trends. The main fancy here is of course Silviniaco Conti who also meets the prep race requirements. I think he will win, but things can happen, so this is how I am going to play the race from a dutching point view.

Silviniaco Conti – £25 Win @ 10/3 Paddy Power
Many Clouds – £10 Win @ 9/1 Paddy Power
Road To Riches – £10 Win @ 10/1 Betway

So there you have all the facts and stats of my “Cheltenham Goes Dutch” ante-post portfolio.

Just to re-cap. Here are all the bets placed.

Day One – Champion Hurdle

Faugheen – £40 Win @ 5/4
Jezki – £15 Win @ 6/1
Artic Fire – £5 Win @ 16/1

Day Two – Queen Mother Champion Chase

Sprinter Sacre – £25 Win @ 11/4 BetVictor
Dodging Bullets – £20 Win @ 11/2 BetVictor

Day Four – Cheltenham Gold Cup

Silviniaco Conti – £25 Win @ 10/3 Paddy Power
Many Clouds – £10 Win @ 9/1 Paddy Power
Road To Riches – £10 Win @ 10/1 Betway

Bets: 8
Total Outlay: £150

I hope you found this article of interest.

Good luck whatever you back and most of all ENJOY what is the greatest spectacle in the horseracing world.

Kind Regards,

Nick Field
Nick Field Racing Club
Visit Nick Field Racing Club

Filed Under: BetfanCheltenham2015 Tagged With: Cheltenham Festival, Last Run Position, Paddy Power, Queen Mother Chase

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