Ok guys I have decided on my ratings for the races that I will be covering for the Festival, and have tried to find any trends which will help us dig out some profit in the races chosen.
I will be using :-
• A contender rating which will give an idea if a horse able to contend in the race
• A projected rating which will tell me what rsting figure that the horse is expected to run
• An average rating for runs on the days going
• An average rating for runs at the distance
• A rating that will give me figures on the horses previous runs running up to the festival
• A rating for the horses class
• A rating for good runs in class
I will use all the above ratings for each race, so a quick reminder of the races.
• Day One The Arkle Challenge Trophy
• Day Two The Queen Mother Champion Chase
• Day Three The Ryanair Chase
• Day Four The Gold Cup
The Arkle Challenge Trophy
Contender rating:
The winning horse has finished in the top five of this rating over the last six years bar one year when it was twelfth and that was back in 2009.
Projected rating:
The winning figures for this rating have been 160,176,173,188,109,150 with an average of 159
The ratings are pretty consistent bar 2013 which was quite low.
Average rating going:
The winning figures for this rating have been
169,183,186,198,92,189 with an average of 170
Again the ratings are pretty consistent bar 2013 which was quite low.
Average rating distance:
The winning figures for this rating have been
117,134,149,152,92,nil with an average of 129
With this rating the figures are not as consistent with two below par results and last year’s winner not running enough times over the distance to acquire an average.
Previous run rating:
The winning figures for this rating have been
169,183,186,181,120,146 with an average of 164
Another set of pretty consistent ratings apart from the last two.
Class rating:
The winner in this rating has been ranked either fourth or fifth bar two years when the rank was tenth and seventh.
Good runs in class rating:
This rating has been a bit of a mixed bag but the winner has come in the top seven ranked.
Also bar last year the winner of this race has come from the top four in the betting with the favourite winning twice 3rd favourite twice and 4th favourite once.
The winner has also come from the top four in the official ratings bar last year.
Also in the last six years the winner has had a strike rate of 40% or higher.
For this race I will be back Monday night with my selections and ideas on how best to play the race.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase
Contender rating:
The winner of this race in the last six years has come from the top three in this rating bar two years when it was seventh.
Projected rating:
The winning figures for this rating have been
185,166,177,177,196,206 with an average of 184 all from the top five in the rating bar two years when the winning rating was eight and six.
Average rating going:
The winning figures for this rating have been
191,174,180,184,193,189 with an average of 185 and every rating being in the top five rated.
Average rating distance:
The winning figures for this rating have been 187,157,147,188,165,166 with an average of 168 with the winning rating being in the top five apart from two years when it was sixth and seventh.
Previous run rating:
The winning figures for this rating have been 194,173,178,190,189,219 with an average of 190 again every winning rating has been in the top five with a favour to the top rated coming 3three rimes in the last six years.
Class rating:
The winner has come from the top five in this rating bar one year for which it was rated eigth.
Good runs in class rating:
The winner has come from the top four in this rating.
The favourite has won this race three from the last six years two of those being the last two years, other than that it has come from the top five.
The winner has also come from the top four in the official rating bar one year when it was seventh.
And the lowest winning strike of the winning horse has been 41%.
I will be back Tuesday night with the final write up for this race.
The Ryanair Chase
Contender rating:
The winner of this race has come from the top five bar two years when it sixth and seventh.
Projected rating:
The winning figures for this rating have been 139,176,170,173,181,168 with an average of 168 and strangely these being the sixth , seventh or eigth ranked horse in the rating bar one when it was top ranked.
Average rating going:
The winning figures for this rating have been 162,170,171,191,179,180 with an average 176 with all rating being in the top five.
Average rating distance:
The winning figures for this rating have been 111,nil,180,nil,nil,107 with an average of 133 this rating will be looked at lightly with three winning horses not having run enough times over the distance to gain an average but they have been horses stepping up in trip for the race.
Previous run rating:
The winning figures for this rating have been 158,180,172,193,174,181 with an average of 176all in the top five rated bar two when they were sixth and seventh.
Class rating:
The top rated in this class hasnt won this race in the last six years with the fifth and sixth rated twice each other than it was the second and fourth rated.
Good runs in class rating:
In this rating the winner has been either second or third rated bar two years when it was fifth or sixth.
The favourite or the second favourite has won this race five times from the last six running’s.
The winner has been officially rated In the top four.
And the winner has come into the race with a 40% strike rate or higher.
I will be back Wednesday night with the final write up of this one.
The Gold Cup
Contender rating:
The winner of this race has come from the top five in this rating bar two years when it was eleventh and ninth.
Projected rating:
The winning figures for this rating have been
184,174,194,157,171,178 with an average of 176 with winner never being the top rated but being within the top five bar two year when it was tenth and eleventh.
Average rating going:
The winning figures for this rating have been
184,168,189,173,175,170 with the average being 177 again the top rated hasn’t figured but all within the top five bar one when it was ninth.
Average rating distance:
The winning figures for this rating have been
190,nil,nil,nil,170,171 with an average of 177 all three in the top three of the rating with the other three winners stepping up in trip.
Previous run rating:
The winning figures for this rating have been
188,179,188,149,172,171 with an average of 175 again the top rated nowhere to be seen with four from the sixth being rated third or fourth with the other two being eigth or ninth.
Class rating:
In this rating the second rated has won twice along with the thirteenth rated with other two being eigth and eleventh.
Good runs in class rating:
Another mixed bag with this rating with three winners coming from the top four the seventh sixth and tenth.
The favourite has won this three times in the last six years, third favourite twice with last years winner being unfancied.
The winner has also come from the top three in the official rating apart from last year again.
With the winning horse have a strike rate of 425 or higher except from last year when it was 33%.
I will be back to finalise this race Thursday night.
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