First up then I need to find which bookies are offering money back offers on certain races today. I always start with Bet365 and PaddyPower as they offer some of the best ones.
Yesterday saw Bet365 offering a free bet if you back a winner at odds of over 4/1 or more in the 16:30 and the 17:00 at Ayr. Paddy Power were offering money back if your horse finishes second or third in the 17:00 at Ayr. This is excellent as I can now use both bookies to get a trading advantage.
You’ll see in the screen shot below that I placed a bet for £50 on Saxonette who I fancied to run well with Bet365 at odds of 5.00 (or 4/1). This now qualifies me should Saxonette win the race to a free bet of £50.
I now head over to Betfair to look to lay this off for a small loss. By clicking on the little chart next to the horses name I’m able to see how much money is being traded and can see what I want to lay off at.
In the image below you can see that there’s not a lot of money waiting to be matched on Saxonette so I will be placing an order at 5.30.
I now have to wait for this to be matched. Of course I also need to work out how much has to be staked in order to minimise my losses.
In the image below you will see the calculator that you get when you purchase the Bet500 system. I have filled in the relevant boxes and it tells me how much I need to lay off in order to protect my initial stake.
You can see that we need to lay a stake of £47.62p at odds of 5.30 to secure us a small loss of £4.76p on the horse either way.
If Saxonette wins we lose £204.77 in our Betfair account but make a profit of £200 in our Bet365 account. If Saxonette loses the race then we lose our £50 stake with Bet365 but return £45.24 in our Betfair account.
Either way we will lose £4.77p on the race. But if Saxonette does win the race then we now have a free bet waiting for us on the next special race with Bet365.
So how does this all work. I won’t show you the extra trade with Paddy Power this week as I’ll allow you to get your heads around this trade first.
We’ve risked a total of £4.77p on the race. Now should we get the free bet (something else I will show you in the coming weeks) we can trade this out for around £40 every time.
Saxonette is a general 4/1 shot. If we had our total risk of £4.77p at 4/1 we would make a profit of £19.08p. This is the bookies price though and of course they always have the edge over what prices we can take.
Once we have completed this trade we have secured a price at just over 7/1. That is a massive advantage. We won’t win every trade but with those figures we are guaranteed a profit in the long run.
At 4/1 a horse will on average win 20% of the time. So if all our trades were on horses at 4/1 and we were getting 7/1 we would be getting paid out at 7/1 on 20 out of 100 bets which would mean a profit of around 60% on turnover – that’s amazing 😉
I’ll be back next week with how we can use more bookies to trade these type of bets and more techniques on how to make it all work.
In the mean time if you want one of my own trading strategies that is similar to the one above including the calculator you can grab a copy here –
See you next week