I wrote about getting the right odds last week and this was all to tie in with the whole of the last two months where we have been looking to turn ourselves into profitable punters. It’s a long process but I hope you have been following and getting to the final stages of stage one. I will list the articles at the bottom of today’s article so if you’ve not been following you can catch up on them all.

Onto today then and I thought I’d show you how we put together our portfolio and assign a betting bank to each method so that we can start to test out our betting to see how we would cope once we go live. When we combine a portfolio of several selection processes the easiest thing to do it to create one bank for the whole portfolio and run it all at once. As you’ll see below, I have put together 4 systems that I personally use and the results from the last couple of months.

System/tipster One. 90 selections bet/26 winners/SR of 29%/Profit of 21 points

System/tipster Two. 120 selections bet/25 winners/SR of 21%/Profit of 9 points

System/tipster Three. 160 selections bet/29 winners/SR of 18%/Profit of minus 7 points

System/tipster Four. 200 selections bet/45 winners/SR of 23%/Profit of 25 points

Overall profit of portfolio = 48 points

So we need to work out the total amount of points that we need in order to bet these four methods and make sure that we are keeping ourselves protected against losing runs.

The easiest way to do this is by using an excel sheet and apply the following equation to one of the cells.

LOG(Number of selections)/-LOG(1-Strike Rate)

Now in reality you would need a lot more selections in order to effectively work out if the strike rates where to remain consistent but let’s assume they will for this exercise. The first system had 90 selections with a strike rate of 29% so the equation would look like this:

LOG(90)/-LOG(1-0.29) = 13.13

You’ll notice that I’ve changed the strike rate to a decimal format for the equation to work. We simply divide the strike rate by 100. So with the above we would expect a losing streak of no more than 13 consecutive losers in a row. I multiply this figure by 3 so I would need to have a bank of 42 units (rounded up).

The reason I multiply this by 3 is to protect the bank. Imagine hitting the expected losers straight away as soon as we go live. You would by using this method still have 67% of your bank left to then hit the inevitable up-swing.

We move onto the next system as follows:

System 2: LOG(120)/-LOG(1-0.21) = 21 losers (rounded up) multiplied by 3 = 63 units

System 3: LOG(160)/-LOG(1-0.18) = 26 losers (rounded up) multiplied by 3 = 78 units

System 4: LOG(200)/-LOG(1-0.23) = 21 losers (rounded up) multiplied by 3 = 63 units.

So we need to add all the units together which would give us a total of 246 units. I would round this up again to come up with a bank of 250 units to cover all the systems. So with this figure of 250 units we need to divide this into the bank that we have set aside to determine our stake size. Let’s say you have £1000. You would divide this by 250 to get a £4 stake. Now I know that doesn’t sound like a lot but we can build this up knowing that we have the ultimate safeguard around our betting bank. Had you been betting to £4 with the above portfolio then you will have made £192 in 12 weeks. Not a fortune but after 12 weeks you now have £1192 which you can divide by 250. You’re up to nearly £5 a bet. Keep at it and although it may take a year or two you’d be amazed how fast it can snowball and become a massive bank and then you’ll be able to go full time.

Take your time to work out the maths above and apply it to your own betting and the portfolio you’re building. As always any help or questions you may have let me know and I’ll get back to you as soon as I can.

I’ll be back next week with more insights as we build up the portfolio and turn ourselves into profitable bettors.

Regards,

Eddie VATR

P.S Here are the articles that you need to read to get yourself up to speed.

A New Years Resolution For 2015!

Recording Your Bets Efficiently

Two Massive Winners And The Bookies Close You Down

Portfolio Betting And Why It’s Important

– See more at: http://blog.betfan.com/new-years-resolution-2015/#sthash.StEd8ESp.dpuf

– See more at: http://blog.betfan.com/new-years-resolution-2015/#sthash.StEd8ESp.dpuf

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