Making Your Own Football Odds Like A Pro

Today I wanted to go through a very simple strategy that enables you to create your own basic football tissue (or odds line).

By heading to this page here we can see all of the results of Liverpool v Middlesbro who are playing Sunday –

http://www.soccerbase.com/teams/head_to_head.sd?team_id=1563&team2_id=1697

At the top, you’ll see these stats –

To create a tissue we need to add the total number of games they’ve played between them. In this case, it would be 143 games.

So to create our odds we need to do the following –

Liverpool Wins = 62

62/143 = 0.4335 * 100 = 43.36%

This is the percentage chance of Liverpool to win if history repeats itself. To turn this into odds we divide this percentage into 100 which comes to 2.31

We repeat the same math for the draw and Middlesbro.

Draw = 3.58

Leicester = 3.49

I have built one of my excel calculators which you can download here –

Free Calculator For Pricing Up Your Own Football Games

This is what it looks like –

You simply fill in the yellow boxes and the red boxes will automatically update themselves with your odds.

Now, this is obviously a very simplistic model but it’s the foundations of building a tissue which professionals use every day to calculate their value and make long term profits.

We can build on this by adding in either our own knowledge or researching media outlets.

For example, if you have three positive factors for Liverpool and three negatives for Middlesbro you would do the following –

We have 6 more factors which we add to the games played section on the excel sheet. The more you come up with the more accurate your tissue will become.

So we add the 6 factors to get 149 and add 3 to the 62 for Liverpool (as these are positives) and take 3 away from Middlesbro (as these were negatives).

We now have altered figures like this –