We all know what it’s like to win and of course likewise, we all know what it’s like to lose! The latter is one of the hardest things to come to terms with when betting on the horses and we all love to blame the jockey! I still do it to an extent even now and I have managed to remove all emotions from my betting. It’s human nature though that when things aren’t going to plan we need to shift the blame.
When I started out betting on the horses I used to just use the Postdata section of the Racing Post. When it won I was a genius and when it lost it was all the fault of “that bloody newspaper!”
When I eventually went pro the hardest thing to do was to except that I would have losing streaks. It all boiled down to the fact that when I was losing it wasn’t my fault, it wasn’t the fault of the sources I was utilising or the methods I was using, it just happens in racing and any other sport for that matter. You have to realise that there are so many variables when selecting your winners that when you get it right those variables have been relevant but when it loses they haven’t. To make things harder no one will ever know which variables are relevant before the race!
Of course there is good news and that is if you choose the correct betting bank you will ride out the losing runs and still have money to bet the winning ones. There is a way of calculating the size of our banks. Different pros have different ways of doing this but this is my general rule of thumb. More maths I’m afraid guys!
Let’s say I have found a method/approach to selecting my bets. I paper trade them until I have 100 results. From this I can work out my strike rate if of course it is showing a profit. Let’s imagine that I’ve had 20 winners from those 100 bets, not bad.
If we place the below calculation into an excel table we will arrive at our expected losing run:
We have the LOG which is the amount of bets we have paper traded of which we divide our subtracted decimalized strike rate to reveal that we would expect 20 losers in a row with a 20% strike rate.
The idea behind this formula is that if you were to have £20 in your pocket and bet £1 per selection on your new system and hot the losing streak straight away your betting bank would be wiped out. What I do is multiply my betting bank by 3. So in the case of having a 20% strike rate on any given angle I would start with a betting bank of 60 points. For example if I were to have £600 to start I would then bet £10 per point. If I hit the losing streak straight away I would still have two thirds of my betting bank left to then inevitably hit a winning streak.
Talking of winning streaks Value At The Races is in phenomenal form at the moment winning over 100 points yesterday. I’d think about jumping on board whilst the going is still good!
See you next Thursday,