I was asked last week by a friend of a friend how I go about finding my winners? I got a surprised look when I told them that I didn’t look for winners, in fact that’s the last thing you want to do if you want to make a living from backing the horses!
This may sound like a completely bizarre concept and one that would be laughed at inside every bookie up and down the land but stop to think about it for a second. Is the bookie looking for the winner? Who are we trying to get money from when we win? The bookie doesn’t really care who wins the race just as long as they have taken enough money on each runner in the field to cover their book. So if I’m not looking for the winner what am I trying to do?
My aim everyday when I place my bets is to beat the bookie by not finding the winner but by beating him on his price. To illustrate that this works and is the most efficient way of making money this is what a trader working at a bookies will look at:
Customer 1:
This customer has backed 20 winners in the last 2 weeks and is several thousands of pounds up. The prices he has taken are roughly the same price as SP. Keep his account open he will inevitably hit a losing run.
Customer 2:
This customer has had 12 winners in the last 2 weeks and is a couple of hundred pounds in profit. All of his 12 winners have beaten SP by a long way. Minimise his account or limit to SP bets only.
As you can see, customer 1 is able to continue betting as he hasn’t beaten the SP whereas customer 2 is going to be shut down because although he hasn’t won as much as customer 1 he’s beaten the SP.
Customer 2 is much more of a concern than customer 1 because the bookie knows that he is likely to continue to make money by beating the SP than customer 1.
Have a look at your betting each day. If you are beating the SP then you will be in with a chance of actually turning a profit as you have maths on your side.
VATR has a proven record of beating the SP on a regular basis and you can find us on top of the all time leader board over at WIN.
I’ll see you next week,
Ed
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