With Christmas fast approaching and the festivities well under way already I thought I’d re-cap on the year we’ve had and reflect on everything I’ve written about.
I’ve written nearly 30 articles with my time at Betfan and we’ve covered a whole array of subjects. Here are some of the things we’ve covered.
Strike rates and another angle;
Today I was going to talk about strike rates and what they mean when looking at them in order to find a selection. Strike rates can be powerful aids in helping us to decide the strength of a selection. I often include them when helping me to price up a tissue. The whole concept of them is very important as we see them everyday in the odds that we take when placing a bet.
First up then we are going to focus on trainers and there strike rates and level stakes profit. We can find all this information for free on the Racing Post website. Today’s example will be at Southwell on the all weather and as we look down the stats you’ll see Brian Ellison has a 20% strike rate and a level stakes profit.
Today I thought I’d talk about dutching the field and how we can use dutching to our advantage. For those that don’t know dutching is where we back more than one horse in a race. It can be applied in any form of betting but of course today we’ll focus it around the horses. You go through the card and in a competitive race you can’t split your opinion between who will win between three horses. What do you do? Leave the race, pick one at random or go for the one with the shortest price? Personally I dutch them and dutching makes up a big part of my portfolio.
The problem with finding a horse that has steamed in the market is by the time the horse has been gambled on you are missing out on the bigger price that would make it profitable in the long run. The people that have organised these gambles are betting to the odds that the bookmaker has made a mistake on. They know that the horses true chances of winning are way better than the odds suggest. They then plough their money into the market, this obviously reduces the odds and nine times out of ten, people see this tumble, assume it’s a good thing and start to follow the money themselves. The horse may not win due to various circumstances but the people in the know don’t mind because they have gained the value in the price and in the long run they will turn a profit.
You’ll often hear me talk about my “tissue” prices. These are basically the prices I have worked out for each horse. When building my tissue I try to get the price as close as I can to what the SP will be. It’s no easy feat but the way I started out was to cheat! The night before racing it’s possible to look at another experts “tissue.” Either by subscribing to the Racing Post or free through some of the other racing sites, such as Sporting Life or At The Races. I used to use as many as I could. Racing Post, Sporting life, At The Races and Timeform. By looking at the average prices given by each of the tissues or better known as betting forecasts, you can get a rough idea of what prices will be live when it comes to the bookies putting theirs up.
These are just a few of the ideas and strategies I’ve given and I like to think they are worth a read to help you in your betting.
Using the above ideas and techniques I am pleased to say that VATR heads the leader board for the year and my members have amassed an impressive 905.50 points profit, or in simple terms £9505.50p to £100 bets, showing that it can be possible to make a living by betting on the horses 😉
In fact over two years the service has made £16,163.40p profit to £100 stakes and I intend to keep that going for the next two years! So why not join WIN’s best performing service over the long run and start your New Year off with a bang.
I’ll be back next even on Christmas Eve with a look at what I’ll be backing on Boxing day. Until then happy punting and enjoy your Christmas parties 😉
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