I was asked over the weekend how I even begin to break down a race or even start with what races to look at to arrive at my selections. I’ve written about this concept before and I’ll say it again. Forget about finding the winner. Always throws people that statement 😉
Of course don’t get me wrong, we do need winners but I’ll explain what I mean by not looking for the winner. To put it simply is that everyone else is looking for the winner. In order to profit from our betting we need to not do what everyone else is doing and find another angle that either locks in value that we’ve found or a method that inadvertently locks it in for us.
One method of finding selections is to start without the horse. I’m well known for my liking of trainer stats and of course it is the trainer that places the horse, gets it fit and ready to run and should they be doing their jobs properly get some winners. Looking at how far a trainer has traveled and how well they do at a course are all good starting points and once we have found a well traveled trainer with a good strike rate we can then look at horse.
Should the horse then look like it has a chance we can then look to price up the race. This of course a little trickier to get right but there’s plenty of ways to get your head around it. One example would be to look at the SP forecasts of several sites and take an average. This will give us an average price and if we can beat this in the current market then we’ve found the value.
That’s it from me this week as I’m going to put together a more extensive method for finding selections that is a bit different from everyone else. That will be for next week.
In the mean time have a great week and have a go and looking for some value. You can grab some of your own value right now by signing up to Value At The Races for £1.00