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Li And Palmer Can Deliver In The Desert – By Ian Hudson

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Tommy Fleetwood is attempting the rare feat of winning the same tournament in three successive years but he may be rustier this week than in the past. The defending champion has taken his game to a new level and his status in the world rankings mean he can plan a less frantic schedule. Clearly Fleetwood has a game suited to the Abu Dhabi host course and he is not a two-time winner by accident. However, although he has been quick out of the blocks in the last two years Fleetwood could be vulnerable this time to a hot putter who can take advantage of the scoring conditions. 

The desert course is exposed and it has few defences in still conditions. Big hitters have dominated in recent years and there is no great penalty for inaccuracy off the tee. However, nine of the 12 winners on the course for this event finished in the top 10 for greens in regulation over 72 holes. First time winners are rare in this tournament because the lucrative prize fund attracts the better players. The star attractions from the US Tour this week are Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka. The former is no price and his one time mate has poor course form so other players are preferred.

Abu Dhabi measures 7,583 yards and puts a premium on distance over accuracy. Low scoring a few years ago led to more bunkers, tighter fairways and more penal rough but over time scores returned to the low levels of the past. Water is in play on several holes and the greens are above average in size. Despite the modifications the course is vulnerable and only severe wind will make this tough. The main skill for good scoring is power but any potential winner must have a great week on the greens. The 72 holes record is 24 under and the lowest score over one round is 62.   

Thomas Pieters ticks many of the right boxes and has finished in the top five three times in the last four years. He is coming off a season in which he won the World Cup with Belgium so may have not put in the hard yards over Christmas. Haotong Li won on a desert course last season and has a game suited to the course. Driving distance and touch on and around the greens are the skills that can help Li get in the mix this week and record a third European Tour win. 

The US PGA Tour event also returns to a regular host location but the Desert Classic is being played on three courses at La Quinta in California. This is a pro-am event with a slightly complicated format that involves individuals and teams. Each host course has a par of 72 and two of the tracks averaged below 70 last year. There have been no modifications over the last year so we have a similar scenario to in Abu Dhabi whereby a hot putter will be required to contend. Driving distance is more important than driving accuracy on these relatively easy desert courses.  

Justin Rose is playing in the tournament for the first time in nine years. That means he has no recent course form and his game is not a good fit for the conditions. Jon Rahm is the defending champion and is perfect for the course but he has obligations as the winner from last year. Phil Mickelson is a two-time winner on the track but may take some time to find his best game. Charles Howell has great course form but rarely wins so Ryan Palmer is the selection who can be backed at a working man’s price. The tip combines course form with recent form and his game is made for the course.  

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Could Be A Huge Night In Leeds For Derby

Derby have been in a strong position to qualify for the playoffs for most of the season but Frank Lampard could soon be setting bigger ambitions. The risk of recruiting a rookie manager seems to have paid off and DERBY are now just six points out of the automatic promotion places and now just 3/1 with Paddy Power to be promoted to the Premier League. Lampard had no managerial experience before taking over at Pride Park but a long career with Chelsea in particular and England meant he had a great contacts book and he is related by marriage to Harry Redknapp, the King of the Jungle. Tonight’s away match at Leeds is Derby’s biggest test of the season so far. 

Lampard’s team are playing the league leaders who are five places and eight points ahead of them in the Championship table. The visitors have only won one of five league fixtures but Leeds have lost their last two matches. Leeds injury list grows day by day and they have conceded two goals in each of their last five matches. Derby have more strength in depth and follow the manager’s attacking forward thinking philosophy. Lampard will appreciate the significance of beating Leeds on their own ground and on EFL Cup form at Manchester United and Chelsea DERBY can make a statement by beating Leeds and that outcome is 29/10 with Coral.  

The second round of the Sony Open provides some Friday evening three-ball betting. Dead heat rules apply if two or indeed three players return the same score over 18 holes. There was an industry tip on Patton Kizzire to win the tournament but he is six shots off the pace after day one. A big move is expected today which suggests KIZZIRE can outscore Bubba Watson and Patrick Reed at 8/5 with Paddy Power. The bet would have won in the first round yesterday.  

There is a Fast Track Qualifier for the All-Weather Championships at Dundalk tonight (6.30). The one mile race on sand has attracted just seven runners but the winner earns a place in the mile final at Lingfield Park on Good Friday. A horse who was tried in Group contests last season without great success now races in handicap company. THEOBALD is a course and distance winner and the tip on ratings and form so should be backed at Evens with Coral. 

Thomas Can Win The Second Leg Of The Hawaii Swing – By Ian Hudson

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Justin Thomas has the best recent course form so can win his second Sony Open in three years. Gary Woodland has been knocking on the door in this tournament and could make the frame again. Jordan Spieth at his best could lap most of the field and can get his career back of track after a winless season. There is plenty of course form to assess and the geography of the Hawaii location makes for special demands. 

The modern history of the Hawaiian Open dates back to 1965. However, in 1999 the tournament was given a fixed slot and renamed the Sony Open. It’s now the second event of the year but the first regular full field tournament. The host course is at the Waialae CC in Honolulu and in the week after the Tournament of Champions forms the second leg of the Hawaiian Swing. Xander Schauffele won the season opener on the Plantation Course in Maui last week but is resting on his laurels this week. 

In 1998 there was a low-scoring runway winner which did the event no favours. The course was significantly overhauled and the changes left two par 5s and a par of 70. Even though the par was reduced the yardage remained the same. The course now measures 7,044 yards which is short by modern standards even for a par 70 track. There are four par 3s and a number of demanding and almost drivable par 4s.  

Waialae used to require accuracy off the tee but wayward hitters then did well over a number of years and the most important attribute was finding the Bermuda greens in regulation. The greens are tricky but less awkward than those on the Plantation Course last week. The tee-to-green specialists no longer have an edge and the tournament has evolved into a putting contest. The highest winning score over the last six years is 17 under and no winner recorded such a low score in the previous six. 

Despite the modifications and changing nature of the tournament the biggest factor is still the wind. If the wind really gets up players able to keep the ball low and shape shots are at a considerable advantage. Tee times can be important so check the weather forecast to have an idea of when the wind is expected to get up or die down. It’s wise to be wary of players due to be playing in the worst conditions over the first two days. Given good starting times Thomas is the player to beat.

The current world number four combines current and course form with a decent skill’s profile. He set the course low for the tournament in 2017 and produced a steady tied 14th effort last year. Thomas also finished tied 6th when he first played in the Sony Open in 2015. The selection finished third in the Tournament of Champions last week so the Hawaii conditions will not be a culture shock. It’s rare that a player has so many elements in his favour so Thomas is tipped to win the Sony Open.  

Woodland is a consistent operator who has found it hard to win on the PGA Tour. However, since 2015 he’s had four three top 10 finishes in the Sony Open and not finished lower than tied 13th. Spieth has made the top 20 in 2017 and 2018 with an overall scoring average of 66.25. However, the field are playing for second place because Thomas’s profile stands out.      

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

Are You Backing Burton At 50/1?

Manchester City are owned by a state and sponsored by one of the most cash rich airlines in the world. The club have been estimated as the fifth richest in the world and revenue was over half a billion Euro during the 2017-18 season. One of Burton Albion’s main commercial partners are Russell Roof Tiles, a national manufacturer of roofing solutions who employ 10 office staff and have plants in Burton and Lockerbie. BURTON ALBION are 50/1 with bet365 to beat Manchester City in the first leg of the EFL semi-final tie at the Etihad Stadium. Stranger things have not even happened at sea and even this David would not fancy his chances against Goliath, characters in the most famous underdog story ever told.     

Backers of Manchester City in 90 minutes betting would earn a return on investment of 4%. This fixture must present the most blatant money buying opportunity in the history of the EFL Cup. However, the match is live on television on a quiet night for football action so there should be plenty of betting interest but identifying bets that are not ridiculously weighted in favour of City will not be easy. The handicap odds are related to the match odds and a 1/25 favourite is expected to win by three goals or four goals. On the basis of a potentially weakened City team and motivated opponents the recommendation is BURTON +4 at 20/23 with Ladbrokes.   

There are five second round matches in the BDO World Championship in darts, starting from 1pm to 7pm. There are fewer mismatches than in the PDC version and the second round is more competitive than at the same stage in the other organisations’s showpiece occasion. On seedings the closest match brings together Richard Veenstra and Scott Waites and the value lies in backing VEENSTRA at 6/5 with bet365 to progress to the quarter-finals of this world championship of darts.    

In terms of Class and prize money the best race of the day is the conditions stakes over six furlongs at Kempton (18.15). Corinthia Knight is a smart horse who has won over the course and distance but was a well beaten favourite last time out. Guliver is another decent course and distance winner but ran below form in his last race. The booking of Ryan Moore and some smart form makes CENOTAPH the banker of the meeting at 10/11 with Ladbrokes. 

This Weeks Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott 

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Wolves Are Tipped To Beat Liverpool In The FA Cup 

The 32nd and final tie of the third round of the FA Cup takes place tonight and the fixture between the home club in Wolves and Liverpool could go against form and current league standings. Wolves are becalmed in mid-table safety, too good to get involved in relegation issues and unlikely to break into the top six and contend for a place in the Champions League. 

Liverpool have set their heart on being the champions of England for the first time since 1990 and would love to be the top dogs in Europe for the sixth time. Team selection and motivation will be key but it’s worth noting that Liverpool have won just three of 10 FA Cup ties with Jurgen Klopp in charge. However, he did lead Borussia Dortmund to the league and Cup double in Germany in the 2011/12 season. 

However, the pressure to deliver a first Premier League title for Liverpool could lead to some second string players starting against Wolves. Newport showed that a hungry outfit can outplay an under strength Premier League side in beating Leicester in the Cup. WOLVES could be hungrier tigers than Liverpool and can be backed at 29/10 with William Hill to win the tie in 90 minutes. 

The Premier League reconvenes next weekend and the match of the schedule is Tottenham’s home match with Manchester United. The transformation in style and points gathering is such that United could win the match at Wembley. Three points would take them closer to Champions League qualification and MANCHESTER UNITED are now 7/2 with Paddy Power to finish in the top four. 

There are early season tournaments on the US PGA and European tours in golf and minor tennis events outdoors on hard courts in the Southern Hemisphere. These tournaments are prep events for the Australian Open which begins in three weeks. NOVAK DJOKOVIC is 5/4 with bet365 to win the first Grand Slam of the season. NAOMI OSAKA is 8/1 with bet365 to win the women’s event. 

There are no major handicaps or Cheltenham trials this weekend so the next key race is the Clarence House Chase at Ascot a week on Saturday. ALTIOR is an intended runner but only the money buyers will be interested in backing the horse at 1/3 with William Hill. The conditions stakes race at Wolverhampton on the All-Weather at 6.45 is the richest race of the day and HATHAL is the nap at 11/8 with Coral.   

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Manchester City Can Win Premier League Showdown 

For a season and a half Manchester City have been the best team in the Premier League. In winning the title in 2017/18 they scored 22 more goals than Liverpool and won 25 more points. Despite improvements in personal at the back and in goal Liverpool have not closed the gap. Granted they are unbeaten after 20 matches but City are still in striking distance despite three defeats in their last five matches. There is no need to hype this meeting because it is the most important match of the season to date. It’s a must win for City and a draw would be a great result for Liverpool.

City have played five games against the top six this season and these matches have produced nine goals. The reverse fixture at Anfield was goalless but the visitors missed a penalty late on. However, the 40 matches involving both sides this season have produced 102 goals but only 24 of those have been scored by the opposition. Before losing to Crystal Palace at the Eithad City won all nine matches at home scoring 33 goals and conceding six. Liverpool have dropped just two points in 10 fixtures on the road but MANCHESTER CITY are tipped at 11/10. 

It’s the first day of the Tournament of Champions which brings together the winners on the US PGA Tour from last season. The key attribute for success is power and on the long track with wide fairways driving distance is more important than driving accuracy. Francesco Molinari won the Open and five points at the Ryder Cup but his game is based on accuracy. JASON DAY is a powerhouse so he can outscore Molinari over 18 holes in the first round today at 5/6 with bet365. 

The All-Weather track at Chelmsford City offers decent prize money for racing on an artificial surface during the winter. The course is now attracting quality horses some of which then move on to Dubai for their lucrative meetings leading up to the Dubai World Cup. The richest race of the day is the Class 2 handicap over five furlongs at 5.55. VERNE CASTLE has won on the course five times and ran respectably at Lingfield last time out so is the nap at 4/1 with Ladbrokes. 

Jon Rahm Is Tipped For the Season Opener – By Ian Hudson

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The Tournament of Champions has a limited field and only winners from last season are eligible. Tiger Woods won the Tour Championship in September but is not playing this week. The former world number one is now 43 and will be managing his schedule to be competitive for the tournament that matter most which are the four major championships. In his absence Jon Rahm can get his PGA Tour season of to a winning start on the Plantation Course at Kapaula in Hawaii. 

Woods’ return to the higher echelons of tournament golf was one of the sports stories of last year. He had reached a nadir when arrested for a driving offence which was put down to a cocktail of prescription medication. His mug shot was distressing for his millions of fans around the world. Competing in elite sport looked a million miles away but Woods never gave up on his dream of winning 19 majors. 

Jack Nicklaus holds the record of 18 major championship victories and Woods has not won one of the big ones since 2008. He has won 14 major titles but contested in the British Open and USPGA Championship last season. In fact he led the Open at the start of the back nine in the final round but two poorly played holes were costly. Woods came from well off the pace in the final major of the season but could not quite overhaul Brooks Koepka at the top of the leader board. 

If Woods is to reach his target you would think he needs to win a major this season. He has won majors on three of the host courses in the past and will have as good a chance as anyone of winning the Open at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland which is new to the modern rota. One respected golf tipster has even recommended a small bet on Woods to win the Grand Slam at 1000/1. No player has won the four majors in the same season and it would be a wonderful way to draw level with Nicklaus.   

Woods won the Tour Championship in his dominant fashion of old, beating the best players from the 2108 Tour. It was the first time some of the young brigade had seen Woods at his best and wearing a red shirt or pullover on a Sunday. He is not playing in the Tournament of Champions as this event is not on his wish list and he would probably swap 100 of the season openors for a fifth US Masters title in April. Woods has won majors at Bethgate State Park (PGA Championship) and Pebble Beach (US Open) so will relish going back to those courses for majors.  

Dustin Johnson is the defending champion and favourite for this week’s tournament for winners from last season. He clearly has a game suited to the host course in Hawaii but he is not the same player as 12 months ago and looks a vulnerable favourite. Kapalua is a long hilly course which is a test of golf and stamina. The fairways are very wide but the course is known for the large greens. In benign conditions it’s a low-scoring course but the degree of difficulty increases in wind. 

Rahm beat Woods in the Ryder Cup singles and then was an impressive winner of the event Woods hosts last December. The Spanish player has the confidence to win on any course and against the elite. Rahm has a good all-round game with few weaknesses and can begin the 2019 season by beating all the other tournament winners from last season. Meanwhile Woods will be looking forward to the Masters Tournament in April at Augusta where he has won four times in the past.    

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

Solskjaer’s United Can Keep The Run Going At Newcastle

Newcastle are edging away from the relegation places but they could be back in the mire after tonight’s home fixture against Manchester United in the Premier League. The match brings together hosts who have lost all six matches against the top six this season and opponents who are benefitting from the influence of a caretaker manager. A study has revealed that during the rest of the season a side do not win significant more points after sacking the boss despite an initial positive impact of a fresh regime.  

However, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer seems to be bucking that trend and United can win their fourth match since the new man was given the temporary role. Its debatable whether Solskjaer will get the job on a permanent basis but all United can do with him in charge is win matches and score goals. Three wins and 12 goals but no clean sheets indicate where his priorities lie but the fans are loving it. MANCHESTER UNITED can keep the run going by beating Newcastle and that outcome is 8/13 with Betfair. 

There are five other fixtures in the Premier League this evening which are a precursor to the biggest match of the season to date. Manchester City host Liverpool tomorrow night and the visitors can take a huge step to being champions of England for the first time since 1990 by avoiding defeat. A win for LIVERPOOL will see their current odds of 8/13 with Ladbrokes to win the Premier League plummet and they are playing well enough to achieve that result against City at the Etihad Stadium. 

It’s the second day of the two dedicated racing channels new arrangements today with three meetings on Sky Sports Racing and Ayr on Racing TV. Viewing figures are unlikely to break any records set yesterday because the racing is average. Paying to view Cheltenham or Royal Ascot is one thing but moderate fare hardly justifies the fee but that is the model in place. Backing GLITTERING LOVE to win the Ayr 3.10 race at 11/10 with Paddy Power could recoup the subscription cost this month. 

Rick’s Sports Betting: Who Is Your Sports Personality of the Year? – By Rick Elliott

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In the last 10 years cyclists and one tennis player have accounted for six winners of the BBC Sports Personality of the Year. This year’s award appears to be a four way battle and the only contender from those sports is Geraint Thomas who won the Tour de France. However, his prospects won’t be helped by the perception that the sport has a doping problem. That may or may not be true but Thomas is also at a disadvantage as the Tour was shown on ITV4 which is a minority channel compared to the ITV main channel and the BBC. 

The last decade has also seen winners from Formula 1, athletics, football and horse racing. Ryan Giggs and Sir Anthony McCoy were subject to campaigns within their sport to get them the honour. Last year’s winner, Mo Farah, was a big outsider and an interview on the night which was gate crashed by one of his young children could have been the decisive factor. A year ago Anthony Joshua was the sixth odds-on favourite in 12 years not to win SPOTY. The market is more open this time and there are four names with a genuine chance of picking up the award.

Thomas also suffers from the theory of recency. It takes a special performance in July that resonates with the voting public in December. The Welshman rode into Paris at the end of the seventh month wearing the Yellow Jersey. The scarcity value of a British rider winning the most famous bike race in the world has gone due to the wins for Sir Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome. Until there is evidence to the contrary cycling has an image problem which makes Thomas the most unlikely winner of the four. The late announcement of the nominees makes campaigns from a sport difficult.  

Lewis Hamilton won the award in 2014 which was a World Cup year. England were dismal in that tournament in Brazil and Rory McIlroy finished second behind Hamilton after winning two major championships, including the British Open. I’m sure it takes great skill and commitment to win the F1 Driver’s Championship but the sport is predictable and Hamilton did not produce a SPOTY winning year. Five championships should not be sniffed at but the other contenders are preferred.

Harry Kane won the Golden Boot at the World Cup and England reached the last four for the first time since 1990. They look nailed on for the Team of the Year but I have a sneaking feeling that the honour will go to Leicester City for non-sporting reasons. Kane started the World Cup well but did not score in England’s last three matches. His sporting achievement was in June and July and something happened last weekend that could trump anything else. 

Love him or hate him you can’t deny that Tyson Fury has made a stunning return to boxing. Many judges thought he beat Detonay Wilder is Los Angeles but the fight was declared a draw. Tyson has come back from the brink and proved all his doubters wrong. Boxing has a history of winning the BBC award with Henry Cooper and Lennox Lewis. Fury actually showed some dignity in reacting to the perceived injustice of the Detonay fight and that could give him an edge when the public vote for the Sports Personality of the Year.     

              

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

Three More Points For City At Chelsea

Chelsea have not been able to beat Everton or Manchester United at home this season so avoiding defeat against Manchester City at Stamford Bridge today looks beyond them. If it’s possible City are looking an even slicker outfit after their record breaking Premier League campaign in 2017/18. The champions are unbeaten in 14 matches on the road in the Premiere League and all but three of those road trips have resulted in winning three points. MANCHESTER CITY are the bet at Evens.

Liverpool could have overhauled City at the top of the league by kick-off time. Their match at Bournemouth is the early live TV fixture while Chelsea and City lock horns at 5.30. Liverpool were fortunate to beat Everton and the win at a struggling Burnley midweek was expected. They have kept winning without impressing and just like Arsenal most of the damage is done in the second half. However, Bournemouth are unlikely to fold so the DRAW at 7/2 with bet365 is the prediction.     

There is a third televised match in the Premier League this evening which is Tottenham’s match at Leicester. The visitors are third in the Premier League despite not buying any players in the summer and still having to play home matches at Wembley. Crowd numbers are plummeting at the national stadium but the club’s travels continue to bring rewards. In fact Tottenham have scored in all but one of 22 Premier League matches and Leicester are unbeaten in six matches. It’s tricky to call the outcome but BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 4/6 with Ladbrokes is on. 

Blaklion was unseated at the first fence in the Grand National this April after finishing fourth the previous year when looking like the most likely winner for most of the race. The plan to hold up the horse this year never materialised due to that very early mishap. BLAKLION is back at Aintree today for the Becher Chase over three miles and two furlongs of the National course and distance and is the tip at 4/1 with Coral.   

Will Tiger Woods Win A Major In 2019? – By Ian Hudson

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Golf is now almost a 12 month sport and no sooner has one season ended than the next one begins. In fact the Race to Dubai on the European Tour and Money List on the PGA Tour for 2019 have already begun. The core seasons begin in January and John Rahm in Europe and Brooks Koepka in the States are the players to back to be top dogs on their main tours. Tiger Woods is 7/2 to win a major next year and that is not the worst price in the world.  

Woods looked tired and demotivated at the Ryder Cup but that was one week too many at the end of such a great season. The former world number won contended in the last two majors of the season and won the Tour Championship. Woods then had to travel to Paris for the Ryder Cup but he was emotionally and physically drained. Even in his halcyon days he underperformed in the matches so playing so poorly this time should not be of great concern to his fans and backers.   

Woods led the British Open at the start of the back nine on the Sunday but one poor hole cost him dear. He almost chased down Koepka at the PGA Championship but just came up short. However, his ability to still compete at the highest level was displayed when he beat the best other 29 PGA tour players in the season finale. It was a Woods master class thanks to a great swing, iron play and putting. The 14 times major champion is now good enough to add to that tally.

He is chasing Jack Nicklaus’s record of 18 majors but he has not won one of the four titles that matter most since 2008. Nicklaus won his last major aged 46 and Woods turns 43 at the end of the year. That means he will have 16 more chances to win more majors before passing the age at which Nicklaus won one. Given no more injuries and operations Woods could be competitive until he reaches 50 which doubles his opportunities to get to 15 majors and beyond. However, you have to think if he comes up short in 2019 Nicklaus’s total will not be overhauled.    

The US Masters is Woods’ best chance to win another major. He is a four times winner and the course is ideally suited to his game. Woods won his first major in the Masters Tournament in 1997 and the fairways provide some scope for wayward driving. Putting under pressure was always a strength and the greens at Augusta are amongst the fastest and most challenging on the tour. The second most successful player in major championship golf can bring the house down by winning the 2019 US Masters. Woods in his prime won more than one major some seasons.

Koepka has now won three of the last seven majors and that is Woods-esque when he was winning them for fun at the start of the century. He defended the US Open title and then won the PGA Championship. Koepka played on the Challenge Tour and European Tour at the start of his career so his game is more than one-dimensional. He overpowers courses of the tee and his confidence must be sky high. Kopeka has won more majors than regular tournaments but if he can start winning in the less demanding weeks the Money List is within his scope.          

Rory McIlroy is thinking about focusing on the US PGA Tour in a concerted effort to win more majors. The logic is that he will be competing against the best players more often. Rahm is more loyal to the European Tour and money won in the majors and WGC events counts. However, Rahm will play enough regular tournaments in Europe to boost his prize money and make him a leading contender for the Race to Dubai which he can win in 2019.   

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

Harry Is Odds-On To Win In The Jungle

Is it possible to resist backing Manchester United to win a match at Old Trafford at odds of almost 2/1? During the Alex Ferguson era that proposition was unheard of even when Arsenal were in town. Some bookmakers are offering much lower odds for a home win so it will be interesting to see how the betting market reacts from now until kick-off at 8pm. Jose Mourinho’s job could be on the line. 

Mark Hughes has not let his backers down by winning the next-manager-to-leave market but Mourinho is the new favourite. However, he has a habit of getting a result when he needs it most. There is a good chance that could be on the cards by half-time because Arsenal have not been in the lead at the break in any match this season. The logical bet is MANCHESTER UNITED/DRAW at 14/1 with bet365.

Harry Redknapp’s name is not appearing in any lists for the next manager of a club. He has been in charge at Southampton and there is a vacancy now that Hughes has gone. It’s questionable whether Redknapp can be taken seriously as a football manager as his main role in the jungle appears to be cleaning out the dunny. REDKNAPP is 4/7 to be the winner of I’m A Celebrity.    

Southampton have appointed a caretaker manager and the temporary role begins with a Premier League fixture against Tottenham at Wembley. I wonder if Mauricio Pochettino will now rest players so his squad peaks for the FA Cup third round tie at Southport or Tranmere early next month. The home team won the fixture 5-2 last season so anything similar makes TOTTENHAM -1 the bet at Evens with Betfair.   

There is an early evening All-Weather meeting at Kempton but it’s debatable whether the place will be packed out for the Class 5 race that opens the fixture at 3.55 on a working day. The fifth race at 6pm is a Class 2 handicap over six furlongs and there is a decent prize up for grabs. TROPICS is the top weight but the horse has performed well on artificial surfaces over the last year and is the nap at 11/1 with Ladbrokes.  

Will Tiger Woods Win A Major In 2019? – By Ian Hudson

Golf is now almost a 12 month sport and no sooner has one season ended than the next one begins. In fact the Race to Dubai on the European Tour and Money List on the PGA Tour for 2019 have already begun. The core seasons begin in January and John Rahm in Europe and Brooks Koepka in the States are the players to back to be top dogs on their main tours. Tiger Woods is 7/2 to win a major next year and that is not the worst price in the world.  

Woods looked tired and demotivated at the Ryder Cup but that was one week too many at the end of such a great season. The former world number won contended in the last two majors of the season and won the Tour Championship. Woods then had to travel to Paris for the Ryder Cup but he was emotionally and physically drained. Even in his halcyon days he underperformed in the matches so playing so poorly this time should not be of great concern to his fans and backers.   

Woods led the British Open at the start of the back nine on the Sunday but one poor hole cost him dear. He almost chased down Koepka at the PGA Championship but just came up short. However, his ability to still compete at the highest level was displayed when he beat the best other 29 PGA tour players in the season finale. It was a Woods master class thanks to a great swing, iron play and putting. The 14 times major champion is now good enough to add to that tally.

He is chasing Jack Nicklaus’s record of 18 majors but he has not won one of the four titles that matter most since 2008. Nicklaus won his last major aged 46 and Woods turns 43 at the end of the year. That means he will have 16 more chances to win more majors before passing the age at which Nicklaus won one. Given no more injuries and operations Woods could be competitive until he reaches 50 which doubles his opportunities to get to 15 majors and beyond. However, you have to think if he comes up short in 2019 Nicklaus’s total will not be overhauled.    

The US Masters is Woods’ best chance to win another major. He is a four times winner and the course is ideally suited to his game. Woods won his first major in the Masters Tournament in 1997 and the fairways provide some scope for wayward driving. Putting under pressure was always a strength and the greens at Augusta are amongst the fastest and most challenging on the tour. The second most successful player in major championship golf can bring the house down by winning the 2019 US Masters. Woods in his prime won more than one major some seasons.

Koepka has now won three of the last seven majors and that is Woods-esque when he was winning them for fun at the start of the century. He defended the US Open title and then won the PGA Championship. Koepka played on the Challenge Tour and European Tour at the start of his career so his game is more than one-dimensional. He overpowers courses of the tee and his confidence must be sky high. Kopeka has won more majors than regular tournaments but if he can start winning in the less demanding weeks the Money List is within his scope.          

Rory McIlroy is thinking about focusing on the US PGA Tour in a concerted effort to win more majors. The logic is that he will be competing against the best players more often. Rahm is more loyal to the European Tour and money won in the majors and WGC events counts. However, Rahm will play enough regular tournaments in Europe to boost his prize money and make him a leading contender for the Race to Dubai which he can win in 2019.   

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

Harry Is Odds-On To Win In The Jungle

Is it possible to resist backing Manchester United to win a match at Old Trafford at odds of almost 2/1? During the Alex Ferguson era that proposition was unheard of even when Arsenal were in town. Some bookmakers are offering much lower odds for a home win so it will be interesting to see how the betting market reacts from now until kick-off at 8pm. Jose Mourinho’s job could be on the line. 

Mark Hughes has not let his backers down by winning the next-manager-to-leave market but Mourinho is the new favourite. However, he has a habit of getting a result when he needs it most. There is a good chance that could be on the cards by half-time because Arsenal have not been in the lead at the break in any match this season. The logical bet is MANCHESTER UNITED/DRAW at 14/1 with bet365.

Harry Redknapp’s name is not appearing in any lists for the next manager of a club. He has been in charge at Southampton and there is a vacancy now that Hughes has gone. It’s questionable whether Redknapp can be taken seriously as a football manager as his main role in the jungle appears to be cleaning out the dunny. REDKNAPP is 4/7 to be the winner of I’m A Celebrity.    

Southampton have appointed a caretaker manager and the temporary role begins with a Premier League fixture against Tottenham at Wembley. I wonder if Mauricio Pochettino will now rest players so his squad peaks for the FA Cup third round tie at Southport or Tranmere early next month. The home team won the fixture 5-2 last season so anything similar makes TOTTENHAM -1 the bet at Evens with Betfair.   

 

There is an early evening All-Weather meeting at Kempton but it’s debatable whether the place will be packed out for the Class 5 race that opens the fixture at 3.55 on a working day. The fifth race at 6pm is a Class 2 handicap over six furlongs and there is a decent prize up for grabs. TROPICS is the top weight but the horse has performed well on artificial surfaces over the last year and is the nap at 11/1 with Ladbrokes.  

 

Can Tiger Woods Win His Own Event? – By Ian Hudson

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There were signs that Tiger Woods could still compete at the highest level in the Hero World Challenge this time last year. It was the former world number one’s first tournament of any kind for over a year and he played well enough to suggest his professional career was not over. Woods steadily moved up the world rankings in 2018, led the Open Championship at the start of the back nine and won the Tour Championship at the end of the regular season. He returns to the Hero World Challenge this week at number 13 in the world rankings having been 1,199th 12 months ago before finishing tied 9th in the event.   

It was appropriate that Woods played competitively for the first time in 15 months at the Hero World Challenge. He hosts the event which benefits the Tiger Woods Foundation. The field is limited to just 18 players and it is a non-official Tour event. However, there is plenty of prize money up for grabs and world ranking points on offer. The invited field consists of the most recent winners of the four majors, the 11 best available players from the world rankings and the defending champion. Two additional players receive special exemptions. Most of the qualified players are competing but Open champion, Francesco Molinari, and Rory McIlroy have not accepted the invitation. .  

The event has been played at the Albany development in the Bahamas since 2015. The course was designed by Ernie Els and its location means wind is often a factor. There are five par 5s on the par 72 track over 7,309 yards. Last year the field averaged 70.333 and Rickie Fowler returned a winning score of 18 under. The four winning scores on the track have been 18 under twice, 25 under and 26 under. The strongest winds are expected on Saturday and rain is forecast for Sunday but the winning score will still be around 20 under. Putting well is a requirement for getting in the mix. 

Even though the Hero World Challenge is not an official US PGA Tour event it has brought together the best players in the world who will want to beat their peers. There are not many occasions when most of the top 10 players in the world rankings compete in the same event. Woods’ name is probably a draw because the current professionals know how much he has done for the game and helped boost the prize money that they are competing for to win. The 14 times major champion was the best player in the world when the current crop were growing up and working towards a career in professional golf. However, Woods is not fancied to win this week.

Justin Rose is a local resident but the Bahamas based player has a poor record at Albany. In a small field form figures of 13th – Withdrawn – Tied 5th are nothing special but that could change this week. Rose has finished in the top four in all but one of his last five starts and recently won the Turkish Airlines Open in Europe. Rose is currently at number two in the world rankings, behind Brooke Koepka who won two major championships in 2018. He could end the year at the pinnacle of the sport but winning this week is required with Koepka finishing down the field. However, another player is preferred.        

Dustin Johnson does not have the best course from which is surprising because he has a game suited to Albany. At his best Johnson does everything well and if the putts drop he will be difficult to beat. Johnson can overpower par 5s so he should have plenty of eagle and birdie opportunities this week. Woods would be a popular winner of his own event but the head is ruling the heart in making Johnson the selection.   

Hong Kong Can Be Good For Garcia – By Ian Hudson

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The 2019 European Tour golf season begins in Hong Kong this week. The 2019 US PGA Tour season has already begun. The lesser lights have a chance to shine and winning a tournament on both tours gives a player a two-year exemption. Rory McIlroy is considering giving up his European Tour card. These facts may seem unrelated but a world tour now seems inevitable. The global tour would combine the biggest events in the United States and Europe and it would sit alongside a rest of the world tour. Patrick Reed is the favourite to win the Hong Kong Open.  

The four major championships are the pinnacle of the sport and they bring together the best players. Many years ago Greg Norman proposed a world tour but the concept did not get off the ground. However, it did lead to World Golf Championship events that aimed to pit the best players against each other more often. McIlroy has identified that he must play against the best players in the world to win more majors. His loyalty to Europe is not as important as his major championship ambitions. By focusing on the PGA Tour as the rules stand he can’t captain Europe’s Ryder Cup team.

Professional golf is always evolving but television viewers want to see the best players in competition. The subplot to last season was the form of Tiger Woods but he can’t sustain interest in golf on his own. There are no dominant individuals just now so more tournaments that involve the best US and European players is the way forward. Jason Day is the only player in the top 20 from other parts of the world. Eight golfers in the top 50 in the standings were not born in Europe or the States. The top 10 is made up of six Americans and four Europeans. 

The highest viewing figures are in the US and Europe and that will attract the advertisers and sponsors. The new world tour would include the majors and WGC events and in theory the 10 biggest tournaments from the two main tours. The second tier events would form a secondary tour and there could be promotion and relegation based on world rankings. Even though the favourite for this year’s Hong Kong Open is the 2018 Masters champion it would be a second tier event. Tommy Fleetwood has also entered the first counting event for the Race to Dubai. 

The tournament has been on the European Tour schedule since 2002 and it has always been played at the Hong Kong Golf Club in Fanling. It’s a short course on which accuracy is more important than power. However, a player with a hot putter can contend. Low rounds are possible so this is a catch up track on which players can make up ground quickly. At 6,700 the course is short by modern standards. There are only two par 5s and the last five holes are par 4s at less than 430 yards in length. Wade Ormsby from Australia is the defending champion.

Fleetwood and Rafa Cabrera Bello finished in the top 10 last year so can handle the course and are respected. Lucas Bjerregaard has the greens in regulation stats to contend this week but hitting enough fairways could be an issue.  Sam Horsfield is a potential winner in Europe this season but he is more suited to longer courses where driving distance is more important than driving accuracy Miguel Angel Jimenez from Spain has by far the best course form with four wins in the event but winning may be beyond the veteran this year. His compatriot, Sergio Garcia, has the best skills’ profile and decent accuracy numbers last season so he is the player to back.