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Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Wales Can Clinch Promotion By Beating Denmark 

The odds suggest there is a bigger chance of Labour winning the next General Election than Wales beating Denmark tonight at the Cardiff City Stadium. The Conservatives are marginal favourites to prevail when the country next goes to the polls but Wales are the outsiders of the three options for the Nations League fixture against the Danes. Despite not qualifying for this year’s World Cup Wales have lost just once in 12 competitive matches at home. 

A win tonight would clinch promotion to League A and with Gareth Bale in the side anything is possible. However, the home side are now more than a one-man team and have a good mix of youth and experience. Denmark rely on Christian Eriksen more than Wales need Bale at his best. The Tottenham man is not fully match fit and the absence of the Danish captain will weaken the defence.  WALES are the team to back at 9/5 with William Hill. 

The second round of the DP World Tour Championship is underway. Dubai is four hours ahead of the UK so the action could be over when you are reading this preview. Francesco Molinari and Tommy Fleetwood are the only players who can win the Race to Dubai and the Italian is a big favourite. The defending champion is Jon Rahm and he ticks lots of the boxes again this year. He is proven in desert conditions and has a game suited to the host course. We are talking about in-play betting but at the time of writing JON RAHM is 4/1 with bet365. 

The last horse to win the Grand National more than once was Red Rum (1973, 1974 and 1977). This year’s winner Tiger Roll begins the season in which the main objective is to win the National again at Cheltenham today. The horse won the cross-country race at the festival in March and runs in a handicap over the same course this afternoon (3.00). Tiger Roll is the top weight and carries 15 pounds more than Josies Orders. The horse has won three different races at the Cheltenham Festival. However, the race conditions today mean JOSIES ORDERS is the bet at 9/4 with Betfair.   

Molinari And Reed Can Be The Big Winners In Dubai – By Ian Hudson

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One of the big golfing stories of the year has been the bromance involving Francesco Molinari and Tommy Fleetwood. However, it should be purely business in the season-ending DP World Tour Championship because they are the only players who can win the Race to Dubai. Fleetwood will win the title for the second successive year if he wins the finale and Molinari finishes outside the top five or is tied fifth with more than one player. It would be fitting if the two great mates went head-to-head for the tournament on Sunday and Open champion Molinari won the Race to Dubai. However, two visitors from the US PGA Tour could spoil that perfect end to the European Tour season. 

Fleetwood is at a career high of number 10 in the world rankings and it’s been another fine season. He is over one million points behind his mate from Italy in the standings and only a win this week would suffice. In any case he only wins the Race to Dubai again if Molinari finishes sixth or worse. Fleetwood does not have outstanding course form at the host Jumeirah Golf Estates so it would be a great achievement to win the Tour Championship to clinch the Race to Dubai again. Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson are the only multiple winners of the European Tour Order of Merit in its current format. Lee Westwood won the title in 2009.   

The UAE course measures 7,675 yards and has a par of 72. The fairways are generally wide but there are water hazards on six holes and large fairway bunkers. The greens are large and undulating. The course puts a premium on distance over accuracy but some measure of control is required on the driving holes due to the size and location of the hazards. Driving will be a key skill and McIlroy is one of the best drivers in the world but not in great form. The winner of the Nedbank Challenge last week, Westwood, has a good skills profile but mental letdown could be an issue. Sergio Garcia has the attributes for good scoring in Dubai. The defending champion is Jon Rahm. 

The event in Dubai carries a huge bonus fund depending on finishing positions in the Race. US tour players Patrick Reed and Xander Schauffele are fourth and fifth in the standings so are playing for a share of that pot. Reed won the Masters Tournament on the Augusta National course that favours long hitters who can find the right positions on the undulating greens. Schauffele was tied second behind Molinari in the Open at Carnoustie and won the Tour Championship on a course like Jumeirah last year. On balance Reed has the better chance of being the first US player to win the event. 

At the end of a season in which Molinari and Fleetwood won all four matches as a pair in the Ryder Cup it is fitting that they are the only two players who can win the Race to Dubai.  Four consecutive top 10s have kept Fleetwood just in the hunt while Molinari has had a dip in form at the end of a year in which he has won tournaments on the two main tours. Fleetwood would love to reel in one of his closest friends but he would be happy for Molinari if the leader was not overhauled. It’s a big ask for Fleetwood to win this week with so much on the line and he could come up short. 

Reed has the game for the track and is a major champion this year. Sixty players have qualified for the tournament but there is no cut and everyone wins a cheque. Molinari, Westwood and Martin Kaymer have played in every edition but the Masters champion can prevail which means Molinari wins the Race to Dubai.  

Grace Can Defend At Sun City – By Ian Hudson

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Tommy Fleetwood won the Race to Dubai last season and Justin Rose finished in second place. The two English players are again in the top three with just two counting tournaments remaining. The current leader is Francesco Molinari but none of the top three are playing in the Nedbank Challenge this week. The title of Europe’s number one will be decided at the DP World Tour Championship next week and anyone of three players could win that honour but Molinari is a huge favourite. 

Rose moved into third place with a solid win in the Turkish Airlines Open last week. It was the first title defence of Rose’s career and the win took him back to number one in the world rankings. He is also the first player to successfully defend a Rolex Series tournament as he came from three shots off the pace ahead of the fourth round. The win was secured at the first extra hole after tieing with Haotong Li on 17 under in regulation play over 72 holes. Rose is too many points behind Molinari secure a first Race to Dubai title. 

Rory McIlroy could come well off the pace and get close to winning the Race to Dubai. The prize funds for the Nedbank Challenge and the Tour Championship mean two wins for McIlroy could see him run close. However, to have any chance Molinari and Fleetwood would have to finish well down the field or miss the cut next week. McIlroy won the Race to Dubai in 2012, 2014 and 2015 and with Henrik Stenson is the only multiple winner of the Order of Merit in its current format.    

If McIlroy is travelling to South Africa to play this week you can assume he still thinks he has an outside chance of winning a fourth title. Colin Montgomerie won the Order of Merit eight times between 1993 and 2005 and another title for McIlroy would make him the winning most golfer since the Monty era. Stenson has won the title twice in the last five years but can’t win this time. McIlroy and Fleetwood are the only players who can deny Molinari the Race to Dubai.     

The Nedbank Challenge is hosted by South African Gary Player and is played on his course at Sun City in the country of his birth. The venue has hosted the event for the last five seasons and the defending champion is Branden Grace. Alex Noren won the title in 2016 but he is not playing this week. McIlroy is the favourite ahead of major champions Sergio Garcia and Louis Oosthuizen in the betting. The course measures 7162 yards which is short by modern standards for a par 72 track. The fairways are narrow which means driving accuracy will be more important than distance. 

McIlroy is an excellent driver but the nature of the course won’t give him an advantage. The greens are small and well protected by bunkers so hitting the greens in the correct number of shots will be required for good scoring. The weather is projected to be very dry and hot with light winds. Stamina and fitness will be important and rounds in the heat will be draining. Li could go one better than last week and win the tournament but he is just two many points behind Molinari to win the Race to Dubai.

Grace has the best course form in the field and clearly has a game suited to the layout. He has finished in the top four in three recent starts at the Nedbank Challenge and is 26 under for 12 rounds on the Sun City course. Grace found 18 greens in regulation in the final round a year ago which he played in 66 shots to clinch the win. His major strength was shots gained in approach play so he knows how to find the greens. Top 30s in his last three major championships confirms that Grace is the player to beat in South Africa where he was born this week. Li is another leading contender.       

Ryder Cup Pedigree Players Win In Turkey – By Ian Hudson

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The Turkish Airlines Open is the first of the three playoff events which will determine who wins the Race to Dubai and it would be appropriate if Francesco Molinari was the top dog in Europe this season. The Italian won the two most prestigious events played in Britain and won five points from five matches in the Ryder Cup. He leads the Race to Dubai by over 1.2 million points and the player in second place is his partner in crime, Tommy Fleetwood. 

Molinari and Fleetwood form golf’s most famous bromance and it would be great for European golf if they went head-to-head in Dubai over the weekend with the title up for grabs. Fleetwood was the European number one last season and a win this week with Molinari not playing would make the Race to Dubai interesting with just two remaining qualifying events. The Turkish Airlines Open is being played at a golf resort in Antayla for the third successive year. Justin Rose and Thorbjorn Olesen are the course winners taking part.    

The course is a par 71 and measures 7,159 yards. There is only one par 5 on the front nine and it measures over 600 yards. The two other long holes at 12 and 15 are reachable in two shots so there will be plenty of eagles and birdie opportunities. Seven of the par 4s measure less than 450 yards on a course that rewards accuracy over distance. The layout suits Rose more than Fleetwood but both players have had long and mentally demanding seasons and other players are preferred. 

Rose birdied the 72nd hole to clinch the Turkish Airlines Open in 2017. It was his second win in two weeks and 10th European Tour title. In the tournament’s five year history no player has won back-to-back and Rose needs a good week to get into contention for the Race to Dubai. He is over 2 million points behind Molinari and would have to win at least twice during the playoffs to overhaul the race leader. Rory McIlroy is fifth in the standings but is not playing in Turkey. 

The Turkish Airlines Open was added to the European Tour schedule in 2013 and every winner has been a past or future Ryder Cup player. Brooks Koepka won the tournament in 2014 and after winning two majors in 2018 is currently the world number one. The nature of the course and the prize money at stake means the cream rises to the top and one of the leading contenders prevails. The champion is of Ryder Cup calibre and Thorbjorn Olesen played for Europe in the match this year.        

In winning last year Rose was fifth for driving accuracy and 2nd for greens in regulation. He also finished in the top 15 for driving distance and GIR putting so clearly a player must have a good all-round game to contend. Olesen was fifth last year when he was first for putts per round and fifth for putting when finding the green in the correct number of shots. His driving and second shot accuracy falls short of the standard required to win this week but his putting could compensate. However, another Ryder Cup player has the game to beat the field. 

Ian Poulter has not played much golf in Europe this season because he has a PGA Tour card. He is based in the States and concentrates on the US tour. He had another good Ryder Cup in France last month and confidence restored he is not afraid to get in contention in the lucrative events. This week Poulter could become another Ryder Cup player to win the Turkish Airlines Open and start thinking about winning the Race to Dubai.     

Molinari Can Win His First WGC Event – By Ian Hudson

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It’s a World Golf Championship week with the HSBC Champions taking place and one of the leading contenders is Brooks Koepka who is the new world number one. Justin Rose defends the title as he returns to action after a break following two tumultuous weeks in his outstanding career. Only Rose truly knows if he felt better winning the Ryder Cup or FedEx Cup and $10 million bonus. Money is probably not an issue for such a wealthy man and you can’t put a price on betting the United States. 

Koepka won the US Open and USPGA Championship this season and was named the PGA Tour Player of the Season. Tiger Woods made a wonderful return to the sport and won the Tour Championship but the measure of the true greats is their tally of major championships. The best two players in the history of the sport are probably Jack Nicklaus and Woods and they are the leading major champions numerically. Both have won each of the four majors at least three times.

Koepka is rare in that he has won more majors than regular tournaments in the States. He won the Turkish Airlines Open on the European Tour in 2014 which means he has won the same number of majors as regular events in total on the two main tours. Koepka hits the ball a long way and overpowers courses so this week’s host course may not suit his game. Sheshan International in China is a par 72 layout over 7,261 yards. The course is short by modern standards and rewards accuracy more than distance. Rose is the defending champion this week.     

The English player chased down Dustin Johnson a year ago who won the title in 2014. Rose is suited to courses that require sound course management and could get in the mix again on his first start of the 2018-19 Tour. The field also includes Francesco Molinari and Patrick Reed which means the current holders of the four majors are playing in Shanghai this week. Rory McIlroy is prominent in the betting for a championship he has never won and Tommy Fleetwood also competes. 

There have been nine WGC-HSBC Champions which have been played on the same course. Six of the winners have been former or future major champions so the cream rises to the top. The average winning score is 19 under and there has been just one playoff since 2009. Three Americans have won the title and five players from Europe have prevailed. Hideki Matsuyama from Japan was the champion in 2016. Rose won with a score of 14 last year and the joint runners-up were Johnson, Koepka and Henrik Stenson. The Swedish player also finished tied second behind Matsuyama.    

Four of the top five players in the world rankings are teeing it up at Sheshan this week. The field features 19 of the leading 30 players in the current standings. Ten members of the winning European Ryder Cup team are competing but only four US players from the beaten side in France have entered. It’s the first tournament of three stops in Asia but for most of the US contingent it could be the last meaningful tournament before the Tournament of Champions in January. 

One notable absentee is Justin Thomas, the 4th ranked player in the world. The PGA champion from last year is struggling with his game and the putting stroke does not look good. If another major champion is to win again Molinari has the best game. Mental letdown could be an issue but he has the skills to add a WGC event to his CV which now includes a major championship.   

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Draw Suits Both Wednesday And Boro 

Sheffield Wednesday have made the best of a bad job and are now in the top six in the Championships. They could not make any signings until near the end of the transfer window so had to rush into making additions to the squad. A good run of fixtures and an unbeaten record at home has taken Wednesday into the playoff places. The good work of the last two months can continue at home to Middlesbrough tonight. 

One point from the in first three league matches did not augur well for the home team but they have steadied the ship. Boro have the best defensive record in the division and have drawn six of their last nine matches on the road. There are reasons to assume both teams would not be too disappointed with a stalemate so the DRAW is the recommendation and that result is 9/4 with bet365.

Some bright spark scheduled England’s five match One Day International series away to Sri Lanka during the monsoon series. The appetite for international cricket meant this was the only window to play the fixtures but rain has affected each meeting. Only 133.3 overs of the scheduled 300 have been played but England lead 2-0. They are at number one in the ODI world rankings but Sari Lanka are average in the format. 

The best bet is that it will be too wet to play all of tomorrow’s fourth ODI which is due to start at 5.15am GMT. There could be a no result or an outcome based on the Duckworth-Lewis Method. At 3/10 with William Hill to win the match ENGLAND are too short to back for the man on the street but any other result is an unlikely outcome if enough overs are bowled but a monsoon could prevent that happening.  

The run-up to Christmas seems to start earlier every year and there are far more worse examples than the Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Handicap (6.30) at the track tonight. Some stores have been peddling Christmas related products since August so the All-Weather track are relatively late. The course probably now think they have NOTHING TO LOSE and a horse of that name can be backed at 16/1 to win the 13 runner contest over seven furlongs. 

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Could Gibraltar Win Euro 2020 At 5000/1 A La Leicester City?

Sotogrande is near the Costa del Sol which is home to many ex-pats who will be out in force for the first round at the resort’s Valederrama golf course for the first round of the Andalucía Masters. From certain points on the course you can see the Rock of Gibraltar which is on the edge of Europe. Gibraltar could sneak into the finals of Euro 2020 which would be remarkable because their home ground is little more than an Astroturf school pitch near the runway of the airport. 

The UK dependency could earn their place by winning one of the minor sections in the Nations League. Surely that would make a farce of a tournament that is known as finals. Gibraltar could qualify while Germany may be absent which is all very democratic but hardly an elite tournament. ENGLAND are 10/1 with Ladbrokes to win the Nations League while Gibraltar are 25/1 to win League D Group 4. 

The course at Valderrama rewards accuracy over distance and Sergio Garcia has the best recent form. He has won all five regular tournaments played in Spain and is a two-time winner on one of his favourite courses. On current and course form Garcia could lap this field but his foundation is the host and he will have duties away from the course. However, he has enough in hand to handle both elements of the week. 

The 2017 US Masters winner has always won on the course as a major champion but the sample is just one tournament. One of the stellar three-balls starts at 12.35 GMT and brings together a course winner, multiple major champion and player from Spain. ANDREW ‘BEFF’ JOHNSTON is the selection to beat Padraig Harrington and Alvaro Quiros over 18 holes today at 13/10 with bet365.   

The racing is more about quantity than quality with six meetings in Britain and Ireland and no fixture offering prize money getting close to six figures. There is a competitive handicap chase at Carlisle (3.45) which is a qualifier for a staying chase series final and its just over three miles in distance. Six of the runners can be backed between 5/1 and 8/1 at the top of the betting. ACDC won at Wetherby yesterday and the seven pounds penalty is negated by a jockey’s allowance. The horse is 11/2 with William Hill to win races on two consecutive days which is rare.   

Sergio Could Struggle In His Own Event – By Ian Hudson

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Valderrama is one of the most iconic golf venues in Spain and the course on which Europe won the Ryder Cup in 1997. The team was captained by Severiano Ballesteros and included Ignacio Garrido and Jose Maria Olazabal from Spain. Thomas Bjorn, the captain of Europe this year, also qualified as a rookie. The matches against the United States 21 years ago came too soon for Sergio Garcia who was still an amateur. His golf foundation hosts the Andalucia Masters at Valderrama this week.  

Garcia was one of Bjorn’s wildcard picks and justified his inclusion in the team that won impressively at Le Golf National near Paris. He is the clear favourite for his own tournament but hosting an event can go one of two ways. Jobs off the course may make practising unfeasible or the course can be a refuge form interviews and other responsibilities. Garcia is in the former camp and is too short in the betting even against a moderate field and other players are preferred. 

The 2017 Masters champion is odds-on to be the top Spanish player. He has followed Ballesteros and Olazabal as world class players from Spain. Jon Rahm is next in line but he is not playing this week. He beat Tiger Woods in the singles in the Ryder Cup and is a winner on both main tours. Rahm should win majors and would be a big favourite if competing this week. There are 16 players from Spain in the field and that includes a guest appearance from Olazabal, maybe in memory of Seve but definitely in support of Garcia. Valderrama is a worthy venue for Garcia’s event.  

Garcia is Europe’s leading Ryder Cup point’s scorer and a two-time winner of this tournament. He won the second edition in 2011 and is the defending champion this week. Garcia won three titles in total in 2017, including that elusive first major. He has been trying to win one of the tournaments that matter most for over 20 years. Winning the Masters was the ultimate dream but winning his own event will be very special. Garcia will be suited to the second shot track but will be busy away from the course and juggling both activities will be tough.

Valderrama was the first Ryder Cup venue in mainland Europe. The home team won by one point and have now won six Ryder Cups in succession on home soil. Ballesteros has inspired many Ryder Cup wins especially in matches involving his compatriots. Apart from Garcia Spain will struggle to produce a genuine contender in southern Spain this week. The Rock of Gibraltar is visible from the area and the UK dependency is the last land in Europe before the crossing to Africa. Lee Westwood is the favourite in the top English player betting.     

The captain and three of his vice captains from last month’s Ryder Cup are playing this week. Padraig Harrington has joined the field and he was one of Bjorn’s assistants in France. Harrington has won three majors and Valderrama suits his game. The tournament will raise funds for deprived children in Spain and the fan’s favourite to win will be Garcia. Shane Lowry will feel at home on the course that is parkland but with a links feel due to breezes even though the course is a few miles inland. Accuracy is more important than distance for good scoring. 

Andrew Johnston, or Beef, is a course winner and he made the top 25 last year. He won the Spanish Open at Valderrama in 2016 after graduating to the Tour the previous year, heading the Challenge Tour rankings. His winning score of one over indicates the degree of difficulty around Valderrama. Johnson can win at one of his favourite venues again and set up the barbecue of steak and some beers. The drinks could be on Beef on Sunday night. 

This Weeks Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Roaring Lion Can Be The Champion

It’s Champions Day at Ascot this Saturday and the card is full of Group action in five championship races and a heritage handicap. The Champion Stakes is a Group 1 contest and offers the biggest prize. The race distance is one mile and two furlongs and colt’s and fillies aged three and older are eligible. There are weight for age and sex allowances which mean female horses aged three have a weight advantage. ROARING LION gets the age allowance and is the nap at 11/4 with Betfair.

The international break in football continues with more matches in the UEFA Nations League. England have picked up just one point from two fixtures in the competition. They lost to Spain at home and then drew 0-0 away from home against Croatia behind closed doors. England did have the chances to win and kept Luka Modric quiet but three months too late as he ran the World Cup semi-final. SPAIN should be too good for England in the reverse fixture and are 4/6 with Coral to win the match.

England play Sri Lanka away from home in the third and fourth of five One Day International this week. However, the series is a farce because it has been scheduled for during the rainy season. There was no result in the first match and England won the second ODI by 31 runs through the Duckworth-Lewis Method. It’s a big price for either of the matches to be completed with the full compliment of 50 overs for both sides. ENGLAND are 4/11 with bet365 to win the 3rd ODI.

There are some huge golf tournaments on the European Tour over the next few weeks. The HSBC Champions is a World Golf Championship event and then there are three post-season tournaments culminating in the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. The Valderrama Masters hosted by the Sergio Garcia Foundation precedes those events this week. Vladerrama awards accuracy over distance. SERGIO GARCIA will be the favourite to win his own tournament but prices are unavailable.

Westwood Can Win Rose’s Tournament – By Ian Hudson

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The British Masters is sponsored by Sky Sports and hosted by Justin Rose so it will be a great tournament at Walton Heath. Matt Wallace and Matthew Fitzpatrick might want to make a statement while three Ryder Cup colleagues have accepted Rose’s invitation to appear this week.  However, there could be life in one of the old dogs and Lee Westwood can bring back some memories by winning for the 24th time on the European tour and clinch his 43rd professional title. 

Tommy Fleetwood and Francesco Molinari are in the field and it would really be something if they challenged against each other over the weekend. They combined to win four points from four matches in the Ryder Cup. They became the first European pairing to win all four of their matches in the four balls and foursomes. Molinari is now the only European to go 5-0 in the Ryder Cup and he is the current Open champion. The Italian leads the Race to Dubai but mental letdown could be an issue. 

The British Masters returned to the European Tour schedule in 2015 with the backing of Sky Sports. One of the innovations was to designate a tournament host. Ian Poulter, Luke Donald and Westwood have performed the duty but Rose is the highest ranked player to host the week. He won the FedEx Cup and $10 million dollar bonus on the PGA Tour and is currently only behind Dustin Johnson in the world rankings. Duties off the course will keep Rose busy so winning this event looks beyond him. 

Paul Dunne is the defending champion but bookmakers are suggesting he won’t win again. He has not had a great season and not looked like adding to his first win on the European Tour. However, he did win the Golf Sixes tournament in May but that wasn’t a regular individual 72 hole stroke play tournament. Dunne has positive mental associations with the event and his nine under par round of 61 clinched the title last season when Rory McIlroy was in contention.         

Rose has a say in the course and venue and the three previous hosts chose layouts close to their heart which one part of the benefits of hosting the British Masters. It will never have the prestige of the US equivalent but Sky make it a special week with a number of unique features. Walton Heath has two demanding heath land courses and it will take a good all round game for decent scoring this week. The Old Course is being used with a par of 72 over 7.394 yards which is about average in distance.    

Thomas Bjorn made the right calls with his wildcard picks for the Ryder Cup. He had to take into account the five rookies who qualified by right so he went for experience. His four picks all contributed points (as did each member of the team) but also brought a wealth of Ryder Cup experience to the environment. Jim Furyk’s picks gave very little so Bjorn made the right choices. Wallace and Fitzpatrick were in the running for a pick so may feel slightly aggrieved they didn’t get the call. Winning the British Masters would be compensation and both players are in good form. 

Westwood is a former world number one and multiple winner in Europe and the rest of the world. It would be churlish to say he has underachieved because he has not won a major. Westwood has finished in the top three in all four majors and has won over €34 million in prize money in Europe and more than $19 million on the PGA Tour. He won the English Open in 1998 so it would be appropriate if Westwood won a second British Masters 20 years after his first win on home soil.