Eddie Lloyd | My blog

The Supreme Novices Hurdle

March 1, 2018 By Ed Leave a Comment

Last week I covered my staking plan for Cheltenham, if you missed it, you can read it here. Having decided to cover 16 races in my analysis, today I’m going to look at the first race at the festival, the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

The opening showpiece, which starts with the Cheltenham roar (a truly magnificent sound, around the racecourse!) is just over 2 miles and a Grade 1 race.

First thing on the list when analysing these big races, is to look at the trends and this is a great way to narrow down the field and give us a head start.

Here are some of the key trends in the race –

11 of the last 16 winners have been Irish trained

17 of the last 19 winners had won on their previous outing prior to the festival

14 of the last 19 winners had raced at least once within the previous 45 days prior to the festival

14 of the last 18 winners have won at odds of 3/1 or greater (not a great stat for the current favourite, Getabird!)

Going through these trends immediately reduces the field to just two runners –

The Amy Murphy trained Kalashnikov and Mullin’s Laurina.

Kalashnikov isn’t Irish trained but won on his last outing, has raced within the last 45 days and will likely go off, higher than 3/1.

Laurina is obviously Irish trained, won on her last outing, has raced within the last 45 days and will almost certainly be a decent price, come the off.

Of the two qualifiers, my preference would be for Kalashnikov purely because he’s got more experience, having won 4 out of 5 of his races over this distance. He doesn’t have to travel far and with my preference for focussing on the top of the market, he’s the one for me.

He’s available to back at 6/1 on the Ante-post market and I’ll be going each way with half of my stake. I will then wait until the day of the race and look at how I will play the second part of my stake. If he gets backed in I’ll go win only but if he drifts I’ll go each way again. I may save a few quid and cover the whole lot with a small saver bet on Laurina.

So, that’s the first race covered and I’ve got two weeks to cover the other 15!

Let me know what you’ll be backing and if you’re on the same selections as me 🙂

Next week I will have a look at Day Two of the festival and cover a race from that card.

Eddie Lloyd

Value in Over 2.5 Goals II

January 18, 2018 By Ed Leave a Comment

Today I’m going to repeat last week’s article and I have put together some simple ways of finding some value in the Over 2.5 goals market for those football bettors out there. We’re basically going to look at the last 10 seasons of each team in the Premiership and use a simple calculation to see if we can find some value in the current market for this Saturday’s games.

First up then, head over to the link below and see what games we have for the Premiership, this Saturday –

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/scores-fixtures/2018-01-20

We can see that there are 8 fixtures and we’re going to quickly analyse these games using the head to head feature over at Soccerbase –

http://www.soccerbase.com/teams/head_to_head.sd

The first game is Brighton v Chelsea and we need to enter this into the team boxes. This will show a page with all of the games the two teams have ever played.

By scrolling down, we need to count how many games they’ve played over the last 10 years. We can see that these two teams don’t have enough data for us to analyse, so we move onto the next game –

We have enough data for this game so we input the data into the top part of the calculator –

You’ll see the odds are displaying as 1.8 in the top line, on the right-hand side. Now, if history is to repeat itself then these two teams should score 3 or more goals in 56% of their games.

We head over to the market and see what the bookies are offering –

We can see that we’re able to get best priced 1.62 for over 2.5 goals. I make this a no bet as the bookies price is too short. We now work through the rest of the games. If two teams don’t have 10 years worth of data, then we leave them out of our analysis and move onto the next game. If a game doesn’t offer value, then we leave them alone.

This is what I will be betting on, this weekend –

All over 2.5 Goals to be scored in 90 minutes –

Everton v West Brom

Leicester v Watford

1 point double = total outlay = 1 point

If they both result in over 2.5 goals then the payout is 4.81 points

Let’s hope for a good Saturday.

OVER 2.5 GOALS CALCULATOR

There are three qualifiers for the Turbo Winner System –

14:20 Southwell – Letmestopyouthere

14:35 Ludlow – Lygon Rock

15:10 Ludlow – Now Ben

Good luck and catch you next week.

Eddie Lloyd

What Sauce Do You Have On A Bacon Sarnie?

November 21, 2017 By Ed Leave a Comment

Having spent the last 10 years living up North in Leeds, I’ve come to learn that brown sauce is the only acceptable condiment to have with your bacon sarnie or chip butty. Anywhere, South of the Watford Gap and you’re onto red sauce with no exception. Now bear with me as I’m not here to talk about what sauce goes with what but there is a logic behind this!

I personally love a bit of red sauce with my bacon and two slices of really cheap, white bread, covered in butter. Who wouldn’t? The problem is, I get ridiculed by the wife and the rest of her family! Southern Fairy and all of that jazz! So what do I do? I have a hidden bottle at the back of the cupboard that only comes out when I’m eating alone in an empty house. My secret fetish, if you will! When everyone else is about I put that spicy brown sh*t on my sarnie and grin and bear it. I should man up I guess!

Anyway, the above completely random and almost crazy fact about my life got me thinking about betting.

Can you cope with long losing runs?

Do you prefer backing favourites and keeping a high strike rate?

Have they made a profit every month or can you cope with a few losing months but make money over a longer period?

You need to ask yourself these questions when signing up for tipsters and services. That’s what the proofing is there for.

If you know beforehand that you don’t like brown sauce then you wouldn’t put it on your bacon sarnie, would you?

You can check out all of our proofing pages on the links below –

Proofing Pages

Eddie Lloyd

Is This Tipster Right For Me?

November 9, 2017 By Ed Leave a Comment

This week I’ve uploaded a brand new video that shows you how to find out if a tipster is right for you before subscribing to them. I’ve created a calculator at the bottom of the page that you can use after watching the video.

IS THIS TIPSTER RIGHT FOR YOU CALCULATOR

Click on the link above to download your calculator and see if a tipster is right for you.

As always if you have any questions let me know.

Eddie Lloyd

How To Win At Doubles

November 7, 2017 By Ed 10 Comments

This week we’ve no video but a look at a better way of placing a double bet. It’s a question that I get asked a lot and a question I always answer the same. DON’T DO MULTIPLE BETS.

However there is a way of enhancing our chances of landing a double bet (the lesser of two evils when it comes to multiples!) should we choose to place such a bet.

There is a bet that is called block betting and the bookies don’t publish it because it’s not in their interests to do so. This block betting is a very old method of placing a bet that can still be struck today and although many a cashier in your local bookies won’t understand it, it is perfectly legitimate.

So how do we go about constructing such a bet.

Let’s say that we have two races of which we want to bet in. Usually you would select your two horses and place a double.

Well you’ve done it many a time before and either one has placed and the other won etc. You know the score. But what if we could cover two horses in both races.

We have our two fancies in each race but we also think that there is another horse that could outwit us.

So we now have two horses in each race. We need to perm this as you’ll see in the photo below:

By placing two horses in the same race we enhance our chances of landing the double. This of course will cost us extra but it’s not too much of an extra and we have a better chance of hitting the double.

So how does this work?

Any one from two means that we are asking the bookies to allow us to have one horse from the two selected in each race. I have shown this in the explanation below –

2.10 Wolverhampton –

Horse A

Horse B

2.40 Wolverhampton –

Horse A

Horse B

Any 1 From 2 in a double.

Staked as 2 chances in the first leg multiplied by 2 chances in the second leg. This breaks down as follows –

Horse A from the 2.10 can win and so can Horse A from the 2.40 (this is one bet)

Horse A from the 2.10 can win and so can Horse B from the 2.40 (this is one bet)

Horse B from the 2.10 can win and so can Horse A from the 2.40 (this is one bet)

Horse B from the 2.10 can win and so can Horse B from the 2.40 (this is one bet)

As you can see we are covering four outcomes in two races and this is the best way to optimise our stakes.

Have a go at finding races where you fancy two contenders and find if this way of betting will work for you.

I’ll be back next week with how we can do this with trebles and may even film a video of how I place the bets online.

Eddie Lloyd

Trading Made Simple

June 27, 2017 By admin 2 Comments

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Today I wanted to look at and re-visit how trading works and what a simple process it is once we know what we’re doing. I think a lot of punters are put off because there’s a certain amount of effort required in order to make it work.

I want to quote someone I spoke to recently about the subject and it made me smile because it’s so true!

‘The downside to trading is that you have to spend so much time in front of the computer’. You might as well say ‘I make great money from a well-paid job but the ‘downside’ is that I have to spend eight hours a day in an office to get it’.

Now I’m not suggesting that we have to spend eight hours a day trading but to some degree we do have to spend a certain amount of effort in making the “game” pay.

So let’s simplify what trading is and the way we should look at it before we put that “effort” in.

Like anything in the betting world, it’s a numbers game. This doesn’t have to be overwhelming or complicated it’s quiet simple maths once we’ve understood it.

Let’s use an example using the old and understood principle of buying and selling. I have tried to lay this out in a simplified manner –

We back a horse at 9/1 in the market first thing in the morning for £50.

The 9/1 needs to be seen as a percentage. These odds state that the horse has a 10% chance of winning. So in theory we’ve “bought” the horses chance of winning the race at 10%.

Later in the day we see that the horse is now 4/1 in the market. We can now “sell” its chances at 20%, double what we “bought” it for.

The horse wins and we pay collect our profit of £450 plus the £50 staked.

We layed the horse at 4/1 so we need to pay out £250.

Our profit should the horse win would be £250 (this is before commission of course).

However should the horse not go onto win then we lose our £50 stake but as we layed it off we get to keep the other punters £50 (that punter “bought” the horses chance at 20%) meaning we have lost nothing.

So I hope that you can see, trading is simply buying and selling a horses chance within the market.

There are now so many ways of trading that it can all seem a little overwhelming. One of the most popular forms and one that I use on a daily basis, is in-running trading. This is where we back (buy) the horse before the race and then lay it off (sell) it at a greater chance once it’s off and running.

I have published a video below of me trading pre-race to give you an example of how with a little bit of effort you can be making money from trading. It is a little cringy to watch as it was one of the first video’s I ever made so with a deep breath here it is –

I hope you enjoyed watching the video and got something from it. Please leave any comments below and I will get back to you.

So in the video you saw me trade on the second favourite in the 16:20 Windsor. To arrive at this selection I simply went to oddschecker and clicked on the relevant market. Scrolling down the screen I looked at the pie chart at the bottom and looked for the horse that had received the most bets as you’ll see in the image below –

So Calm Attitude was the most bet on horse and was steady around the 10/3 price. This enables us to take one tick profits within the 5 minutes before the off.

I hope you enjoyed the video and if you have any questions please leave a comment below and I’ll get back to you as soon as I can.

Regards,

Eddie Lloyd

The Flat Season Is Here – Four Pointers To Profit From

April 13, 2017 By Ed Leave a Comment

The start of a new season sees new and old alike starting their campaign for their respective code. The all weather season is a little easier to grasp in my opinion where as the flat season can become a rather complex affair for us punters and traders alike.

We have horses that are running for the first time since last winter and on top of that we have changing ground conditions. The bookies usually clean up at this time of the year and straight up punters be warned it’s not the time of year to necessarily be agreeing with the market.

However, having said that it can be an absolute profit pit for punters if they do their homework. I’ve listed some of the pointers that I look for in a horse when researching what to back/trade on. Although fairly obvious at first glance it would be worth noting that I ignore the market until I have found such a horse.

You’d be surprised at some of the big prices that can be achieved early on and thus resulting in a profitable trade or massive value that will profit you in the long run.

1. Look for horses that have proven to run well after a long lay off. They don’t necessarily have had to have won but some that have gone close or placed could well be worth backing if running fresh.

2. When researching the night before check the weather forecast. I find the BBC site fairly accurate. If the course has declared soft the evening before but the forecast is for torrential rain then look for horses that perform well on heavy ground. Back them early as the market will react as soon as the rain comes. You could be one step ahead.

3. Keep an eye on trainers that have just the one runner and are travelling over 100 miles to enter the horse. They too will be aware of the weather and if it’s still declared at 10pm the night before then they must fancy its chances. Always back this up however with your own analysis. This information can sometimes go unnoticed in the market especially the night before.

4. Last of all when you see a horse pulled up or unseated rider displayed as either PU or UR in the form look a little closer as to what happened. Horses can be dismissed by the market rather too quickly for such figures in the form but sometimes if the form was half decent before hand they could represent some good value.

So to sum up. Do your homework and you’ll find opportunities out there that can help you profit in the long term.

Back next week,

Eddie Lloyd

Brown Or Red Sauce?

September 6, 2016 By Ed Leave a Comment

Having spent the last 10 years living up north in sunny Leeds I’ve come to learn that brown sauce is the only acceptable condiment to have with your bacon sarnie or chip butty. Anywhere south of the Watford Gap and you’re onto red sauce with no exception. Now bear with me as I’m not here to talk about what bloody sauce goes with what but there is a logic behind this!

I personally love a bit of red sauce with my bacon and two slices of really cheap white bread covered in butter. Who wouldn’t? The problem is I get ridiculed by the wife and the rest of her family. Southern fairy and all of that jazz! So what do I do? I have a hidden bottle at the back of the cupboard that only comes out when I’m eating alone in an empty house. My secret fetish if you will. When everyone else is about I put that spicy brown shit on my sarnie and grin and bear it. I should man up I guess!

Anyway, the above completely random and almost crazy fact about my life got me thinking about betting.

If we don’t like something about a service, tipster or even a bookmaker do we continue to use them? No way do we. If I’m trialling a tipster and they show poor form over a period of three months, then they get binned. I don’t carry on using them. What amazes me, however, is that some people will continue with them because it’s easier to do that, than complain and try something different.

Of course, we need to try before we buy when using any service or tipster and this can be done by looking at the proofing. By examining their past results we can see if they would suit our personal style of betting. Can you cope with long losing runs? Do you prefer backing favourites and keeping a high strike rate? Have they made a profit every month or can you cope with a few losing months but make money over a longer period?

You need to ask yourself these questions when signing up to tipsters and services. That’s what the proofing is there for. If you know beforehand that you don’t like brown sauce then you wouldn’t put it on your bacon sarnie would you? Or would you?

You can check out all of our proofing pages on the links below –

Betfan

WIN

Bet Kudos

Tipster TV

Don’t forget to leave me a comment about whether you agree with my brown or red sauce preferences and the north versus south divide 🙂

Eddie Lloyd

Grand National Week

April 5, 2016 By Ed Leave a Comment

Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last 2 weeks you’ll know that it’s the Grand National this week. Channel 4 have obviously cut their budget on the event as they air the same advert as last year and probably feel somewhat downtrodden at the fact ITV3 will be taking over the reigns next year.

What is all of that about? Good for the sport or not?

I’ll save that for another article!

There’s is an air of optimism at the moment as we see the last of the major jumps taking place at Aintree and punters look to take on the new flat season with gusto. Usually all guns blazing and no consideration of the lack of form. You know the score but before we get to the flat what do we make of the last week of jumping glory?

We’ve three days of excellent and competitive racing starting today and Channel 4 airs 15 of the 21 races for us to enjoy.

So it’s at the beginning of the week that we need to start considering how and how much we are going to risk and wager on this sporting giant.

I’ve set out a list of the things that I go through before a festival and make sure that I adhere to each one to either maximise my winnings or certainly limit the damage!

There are 21 races to get through. Do we need to bet in every race? Hell no. Just stick to the races that you fancy your chances in and don’t bet on any other races for the sake of it.
Once you’ve decided what races you’ll be betting in then divide this number into the betting bank that you have set aside for the meeting.
Only bet with bookmakers that are offering money back concessions. This will make your money go a lot further.
Remember that it’s where you finish on the last day of meeting. If you don’t get any winners in the first couple of races then stick to your guns or you could miss the winner that turns you into a profit.

By sticking to those rules you should see yourself at least getting through the meeting without too much sweat.

Here’s how I work out my bank –

I’ll be betting in 14 of the 21 races and have put aside £500 to bet with.

£500 / 14 = £35 per race.

I’ll split that usually with two £15 bets and divvy up the £5 into some forecast bets to see if I can win a big one!

So planning is the name of the game and a little thought before the meeting kicks off should see you well prepared and ready for the action.

Here are some bookie offers that will make your money go further and hopefully help you to make more money.

WINNER ARE OFFERING 4 PLACES IN THE 4.05 CRABBIES FOX HUNTER CHASE PLUS FALLER’S INSURANCE

LADBROKES ARE OFFERING YOU YOUR MONEY BACK IF SECOND ON ANY CHANNEL 4 RACE PLUS 5 PLACES ON THE GRAND NATIONAL

WILLIAM HILL ARE OFFERING YOU YOUR MONEY BACK IF YOU HORSE COMES SECOND IN ANY CHANNEL 4 RACE THIS AFTERNOON

That lot should keep you going and if you haven’t already got an account with the top three then we strongly recommend that you grab one now and use their sign up bonuses as well 🙂

We’ll be back later in the week with an extensive write up about the Saturday and the best way to exploit the bookmakers free offers and make your money go further.

Eddie Lloyd

Increase Your Chances Of Success

March 22, 2016 By Ed Leave a Comment

It came to my attention last week as I was laying down my plan of attack for the Cheltenham Festival, that the various systems, data and statistics that I use were bringing up several selections in every race. Now this is not out of the ordinary and I often dutch my selections but what jumped out was the great odds I was getting despite backing up to five runners in one race!

So I was inspired to write out the math behind how to dutch, specifically in large, competitive handicaps.

Now the selection process is up to you and there’s plenty out there to help you with that but when it comes to the big races why not back a few and increase your chances of success?

Last Thursday saw the 4.10 Cheltenham open the betting at 7/1 the field with 22 runners set to race. I’d done my analysis and decided that there were four horses worthy of investment.

Empire Of Dirt (IRE) 16/1
Kings Palace (IRE) 11/1
Sew On Target (IRE) 25/1
Dare Me (IRE) 50/1

Four horses at big prices. I couldn’t split them though so decided to dutch them. Now there are various calculators out there that will work out your staking but I feel it’s important to understand the math behind what and why we’re betting like this.

Each horses’ odds need to be turned into a percentage.

We divide the left number of the fraction by the right and then add one.

So 16/1 becomes 17 and 11/1 becomes 12 etc.

We now get the percentage chance of each horse as follows –

Empire Of Dirt = 5.88%

Kings Palace = 8.33%

Sew On Target = 3.85%

Dare Me = 1.96%

We add these together to get a total percentage of all horses combined – 20% (rounded down)

We now take 100 and divide this by the 20 to get 5 as our decimal odds or 4/1 about the four of them.

Now I head over to here – Dutching Calculator and add in the odds in decimal format as you’ll see below –

A £10 stake returns a snippet under £50 and a profit of £40. This is of course 4/1.

Now those odds may seem a little skinny to some in such a competitive race and imagine if Dare Me had won, then our returns would be more with level stakes. However by using this method and understanding the math behind it, if we can find 1 in 4 winners on average then we will turn a profit. Or £10 profit to every £40 staked which is a 25% return on investment. Better than a bank although a little riskier!

With Aintree coming up in a couple of weeks this type of betting is worth considering in the big fields and a method I will continue to use.

I’ll be back next week with a look at more of the math behind betting and how we can use it to our advantage.

Eddie Lloyd