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Today’s Sports Betting Preview & BONUS Tips – By Rick Elliott

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The Spurs Can Go Marching On 

Tottenham have won all four matches at their new stadium without conceding a goal. They have not been convincing in each fixture but have managed to get the job done. A semi-final against Ajax in the Champions League is on the horizon but qualification for the competition next season is not assured. The Dutch champions have eliminated Real Madrid and Juventus in the knockout rounds and Tottenham could still finish outside the top four in the Premier League. Three points against West Ham at home today would put that issue to bed so TOTTENHAM are the bet at 4/9 with Coral. 

At the other end of the table Brighton are in a fight with Cardiff to avoid relegation. They lost by a late goal at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium earlier this week but showed enough fight to win the points to avoid the drop. Brighton have not scored in seven marches while Newcastle have notched just 13 times in 17 fixtures on the road. Games involving these clubs are the lowest for goals in the Premier League. Cardiff have a winnable game against relegated Fulham so Brighton need something against Newcastle but may have to settle for the DRAW which is 21/10 with Paddy Power.    

It’s the finale of the jumps season at Sandown but it all starts again next Saturday at Uttoxeter and Hexham. The feature race of the final day is the bet365 Gold Cup (3.35) which used to be called the Whitbread. It’s a staying handicap chase over three miles and five furlongs so has similarities with the Grand National. By the process of elimination a system identified ROCK THE KASBAH as a potential winner of the National. The horse was never going well and was brought down on the second circuit. There could be compensation in the bet365 Gold Cup at 14/1 with Coral.  

  

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Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Day 1 Of Aintree Is The Only Jumps Fixture with Four Grade 1 Races 

The Grand National meeting at Aintree is now about much more than one race and the three day fixture begins today with four Grade 1 races. It is the only day in the jumps calander with so many races at the highest level. The local racing fans love the Thursday of the meeting because it is not as manic as Ladies Day or as packed as Grand National Day but the racing could not be better. Living just up the road makes it perfect for me and it’s dry and bright a few miles from the track. 

The action begins with a novices’ chase over two miles and four furlongs (1.45) and an opportunity for a horse that did not run at Cheltenham. There is a three week gap between the spring festivals this year which makes running at both a challenge. Glen Forsa fell at the fourth fence in the Arkle so hardly had a run but LA BAGUE AU ROI bypassed Cheltenham and can win this race at 13/8 with Coral.

The second race on the card is the second most important of the season for horses aged four after the Triumph Hurdle. The two miles and one furlong contest at 2.20 is sometimes one in which Cheltenham form does not stand up. Pentland Hills won the Triumph last month and has the highest rating but BAND OF OUTLAWS won the consolation handicap hurdle and is the tip at 13/8 with bet365.  

The Betway Bowl over three miles and one furlong at 2.50 is Aintree’s Gold Cup and the form often does translate. Kemboy was a first fence faller in the Gold Cup and has something to find on ratings. Clan Des Obeaux was fifth at Cheltenham on unsuitable ground but conditions will be ideal today. However, the horse has been beaten three times by BRISTOL DE MAI who can prevail at 7/2 with Coral

The Aintree Hurdle (3.25) over two miles and four furlongs is as good as the Champion Hurdle and arguably the best race over the smaller obstacles this season. Melon and Faugheen, both trained by Willie Mullins, ran well at Cheltenham without winning and must be respected. However, on past form and ratings you cannot ignore dual Champion Hurdle winner BUVEUR D’AIR at 10/11 with bet365.  

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Bristol De Mai Runs In The Bowl Not National 

The framing of the weights for the Grand National to attract the best horses has worked well this year because the runner-up in the Gold Cup will be the top weight next Saturday. Anibale Fly was only beaten by Al Boum Photo at Cheltenham two weeks ago and in the absence of Bristol De Mai carries most weight at Aintree. 

The National weights will rise by 4 pounds which means that Anibale Fly will have a burden of 11st 10lbs as the horse tries to improve on the fourth place finish behind Tiger Roll last year. BRISTOL DE MAI now runs in the Betway Bowl and on Gold Cup form is the best horse in the race. Currently there is no ante post betting. 

The highlight of the three day Grand National meeting could be the Melling Chase next Friday if all the intended runners hold their ground. Altior will be trying to break the record for successive wins while Cyranne is the highest rated chaser in Britain and Ireland.  The form of the Champion Chase suggests Sceau Royal and Politologue have place prospects but the horse to take Altior on with is WAITING PAITENTLY who is 7/1 with Betfair to win the Melling Chase a week today. 

There are no meaningful football matches in Britain tonight so the best betting action is a Super League fixture between the home team in Leeds and Castleford. Leeds were the champions in 2015 and 2017 but are currently bottom of the table with just two points from eight matches. The relative point’s difference between the two sides suggests CASTLEFORD -6 is the best bet at Evens with bet365. 

In today’s racing the richest race is the handicap chase over three miles at Warwick. (3.45). None of the five runners can be dismissed and on ratings there is only a five pounds range over the field. Coup De Pinceau has some decent form at a higher grade and could be a good thing at the weights. However, a more reliable proposition is KING OF REALMS at 2/1 with Betfair.  

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Can Mullins Finally Win The Gold Cup? 

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the most prestigious steeplechase in the sport but one of the most successful jumps trainers has never won it. Willie Mullins has had some near misses but not won the Gold Cup but he could get his hands on the trophy today. If Mullins does win the race his horse will have to beat last year’s winner Native River, one of the most improved horses in training Clan Des Obeaux and the impressive winner of last season’s RSA Chase Presenting Percy. 

Mullins has four runners in today’s Gold Cup (3.30) but Ruby Walsh has decided to ride BELLSHILL. His mount is proven at the highest level in bumpers and over hurdles and fences. The Irish champion trainer can finally win the Gold Cup with this horse and that outcome is 10/1 with bet365. At a bigger price THISTLECRACK at his best must have place prospects especially with bookmakers who payout on four places which includes Paddy Power who offer 16/1.  

Favourite backers can get off to a good start because Sir Erec has rock solid credentials for the Triumph Hurdle (1.30). The horse finished third in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot in October and that form puts him way ahead on official ratings for the Flat. He seems to love jumping and has the Flat speed to run away from the rest of the field after the final hurdle. So SIR EREC is placed at Group 2 level on the Flat and can jump hurdles at speed so must be backed at 10/11 with bet365.

The football action is ordinary with the TV highlight being a League One all-Yorkshire clash between the home team in Doncaster and Barnsley. The visitors have won three and drawn tree of their last six matches and their hosts have not won in five league fixtures. BARNSLEY have not lost in 17 league matches and can extend that run by beating Doncaster at 7/5 with Ladbrokes.  

Trackside In Ireland – By Declan O’Donoghue

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By the third day of the Leopardstown Christmas shenanigans, the social wannabes, the holly and ivy drinkers, the “must get out of the house after Christmas” crew have melted away, and it’s a real racing enthusiastic crowd that thronged the Foxrock enclosures to enjoy the top class fare at the south Dublin track. 

Fog in the UK causing air flight delays meant Noel Fehily was still stuck in traffic on the M50 and missed a winning ride in the opener, Barry Geragthy happily stepping in for Henry de Bromhead on Malinas Jack 8/1.

Barry was fortunate in more ways than one as Diol Ker 20/1 seemed home and hosed for Noel Meade but Sean Flanagan’s mount lost his footing just after the last and had to settle for third place. 

The Willie Mullins trained French import Elite Charboniere was sent off at a crackpot price of 4/6, and, tucked in just behind the leaders most of the way by Ruby Walsh, found nothing at the business end and finished ninth.

Given a routine veterinary check after the race at the request of the Stewards, Elite Charboniere was found to be “blowing hard post race.” I should hope so!

De Bromhead was on target in the next too where Rachael Blackmore gave a masterclass on Cuneo 12/1 who was all out to hold 10/1 chance Walk To Freedom – who came from the next parish for Robbie Power – and 7/1 fancy Themistocles who had every chance and attracted plenty of overnight support.

The tempo moved up a few gears for the Ballymaloe Foods Beginners Chase where 3/1 fancy Gun Digger picked up the pieces for Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy after long time leader Borderline Chatho and the rapidly improving Bacardys both fell independently of each other at the last.

“We got lucky” Elliott admitted “but he’s a good honest type who jumps nicely and could make into an Irish Grand National horse some day.” 

Elliott had much bigger fish to fry in the next when Apple’s Jade gave another superlative display in the Squared Financial Christmas Hurdle. The 8/13 hot pot led from flag fall and probably had Faugheen well cooked when the latter took a terrible fall at the second last.

Big cheers from the stands when Faugheen finally got back on his feet while as ever Apple’s Jade has all sorts of Cheltenham options.

She’ll go for the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Festival back at Leopardstown first, and it would not surprise if the Sun Racing Stayers Hurdle was her ultimate Cheltenham target.

She certainly takes the three miles trip in her stride and could have her rivals chasing shadows from an early stage.

It hadn’t been a great day for Willie Mullins – and defeats for hotpots Annamix and Stormy Ireland at Limerick hardly lightened the mood – but suddenly everything came up roses with a superb performance from Kemboy in the Savills Chase.

Sent to the front relatively early when David Mullins decided to inject some pace into the race the 8/1 shot fairly buried his rivals, including some Gold Cup hopefuls, when drawing way clear of the chasing pack going to the line.

The hugely supported Monalee 11/2 ran a respectable race in second with 9/4 jolly Road To Respect – who met some traffic problems – third and Bellshill – a stablemate of the winner – an eye catching fourth. 

But really it was one way traffic, and Willie Mullins’ initial thoughts of going straight for the Gold Cup looks an inspired idea. 

That said, the 6/1 odds that Ladbrokes chalk up won’t have me kicking their door down in the morning to get on. 

 

CLICK HERE FOR DECLAN’S IRISH RACING

Rick’s Sports Betting: Proven Horses In Five To Follow – By Rick Elliott

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You can try to be a bit clever and include some promising but unproven horses in a list of horses to follow during the jumps season or focus on horses that have already produced the goods at the highest level. Horses often go back to the Cheltenham Festival and win races after being successful in a previous season. The horses to back during the 2018/19 National Hunt season in this list have already delivered at the meeting that matters most and can do the business again this season. The festival is unique in that it brings together the best horses in an atmosphere few have experienced before and knowing what to expect is worth its weight in gold. The Grand National is another unique occasion and experience of the fences and the whole occasion is worth a few pounds in weight.  

In no particular order here is Rick Elliott’s top 5 horses to follow for the jumps season:

Tiger Roll won the Grand National in April and will be aimed at the race again. It takes a special horse to win more than one National because the winner is burdened with more weight. Red Rum is the only horse to win the most famous steeplechase in the world three times and Tiger Roll could become a dual winner next spring as long as the handicapper gives the horse a fighting chance. 

Samcro will be kept over hurdles this season and is the current favourite for the Champion Hurdle. The horse is a chaser in the making and has the scope to win the Champion Hurdle and then Gold Cup. Dawn Run is the only horse to win the most prestigious races over hurdles and fences and Samcro can complete the first leg of the double by winning the Champion Hurdle next March. 

Native River won the Gold Cup last season and there is nothing to suggest the horse cannot win the race again. However, soft ground is more suitable and other horses may have more pace when the going is quick. However, if it comes up soft next March Native River will again be the horse to beat in the Gold Cup though Might Bite will relish good going. 

Summerville Boy made two jumping mistakes at the end of the festival opener last season but still had enough in the tank to storm up the hill and win the race. A lesser horse would have faded out of contention but this animal produced a winning run. The Champion Hurdle looks like the target and that will be a tough ask but Summerville Boy looks a big each way price in the ante post market. 

Altior has won different races at the last three festivals and can win again in March. The horse won the Champion Chase last season after looking in trouble at the top of the hill. The fall of Douvan made the task easier but Altior showed the class and turn of foot to win the race. Another Champion Chases is the target and on form and ratings Altior is the horse to back. 

If you wish to extend your list and back other horses blindly during the season I suggest Laurina, Black Op, Kalashnikov, Min and Faugheen should be included to create 10 horses to follow over the next five months. 

Cracksman Is A Banker For Royal Ascot – By Ian Hudson

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Royal Ascot is the best Flat meeting in the world and provides five days of the best racing of the year over which time there are 18 Group races. There is a highlight each day at 4.20pm and Cracksman is the best horse in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Wednesday. Stradivarius could develop into an even better stayer and can win the Gold Cup the following day. Without Parole is the horse to back in the St James’s Palace Stakes on the first day of the meeting.

The Royal meeting is the Flat’s equivalent of the National Hunt Festival at Cheltenham. However, it is more an early summer championship meeting than the climax of the jumps that Cheltenham has now become.  Cheltenham appeals to anyone who bets on horses but Royal Ascot is slightly different because what you are wearing is as just as important as the bets. There is over £5 million pounds up for grabs and the fixture is televised all over the world.

An amazing amount of food is eaten over the five days but the alcohol consumption is no longer announced. Security should prevent any unsavoury incidents so people will feel comfortable as they study the form. There are sometimes odds-on favourites but Cracksman is one of the fancied runners who should prevail. The horse is one of the shortest priced in ante post lists but can be backed at odds-against which indicates the competitive nature of the racing at the meeting the Queen always attends.

Cracksman came third in the Derby and then produced more solid Group 1 form. However, ridden by Frankie Dettori the horse was hating Epsom and the ground in the Coronation Cup which he won with nothing to spare having looked like being booked for second place for most of the straight. Cracksman was not at his best at Epsom but has impressed in his other runs. Eminent could take him on but the horse ran poorly at Chester last month but finished less than a length behind Cracksman in the Derby.

On Derby form the two horses should be closer together in the betting and on each way value Eminent is the horse to back. Reversing the Derby form could be difficult but the trainer can see him running a big race and even beating Cracksman. Martyn Meade trains Eminent and he was quoted in the Racing Post last week saying:

“I’ve got the utmost confidence in my horse. He had a good season last term, it was just winning that Group missed out on: I’m pretty confident”

Cracksman has improved since the Derby but is not unbeatable and Eminent could be the horse to just that but the most likely winner is the favourite.

Big Orange beat Order Of St George narrowly in the Gold Cup last year. The horse is absent this time so Order Of St George could win the race for the second time in three years but Stradivarius is fancied to come first. The John Gosden trained runner was very impressive in the Yorkshire Cup and can give the trainer is first win in the Gold Cup. Order Of St George may have gone to the well too many times and Stradivarius can benefit if age catches up with that horse.

Without Parole has something to find on form and ratings but has the ability to win a race like the St James’s Palace Stakes on the Tuesday. The horse is relatively inexperienced but can run to a higher level than in the past and will be a tough nut to crack. However, Cracksman is one of the bankers of Royal Ascot

The Last Samuri Is The Trends Grand National Pick – By Ian Hudson

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There are eight significant factors or boxes that have to be ticked to identify potential winners of the Grand National. Very few horses meet all the criteria for Saturday’s race but one horse stands out. The Last Samuri has finished second in the most famous steeplechase in the world and the horse must be backed to win this year’s race because he is most suited to the conditions.

The Last Samuri is the obvious choice because the horse has the best profile in the context of these eight prerequisites for a National winner. The trends are taken from the last 20 Grand Nationals.

Starting Price: The average starting price of the winner is 24/1.

Age: The age range is from 8 to 12.

Weight: Winners have carried from 10 to 11 stone nine pounds.

Stamina: Most past winners had won over three miles or more.

Jumping: Proven jumping ability is important.

National Form: Performances in previous Nationals is key.

Spring Form: Spring horses excel.

Cheltenham Form: Horses that that run at the Festival have done well.

The Last Samuri can be backed at 18/1 and the 10-year-old has been allotted 11-07. The horse has proven stamina in staying chases and is a sound jumper. The selection has completed the course in the last two Nationals in the last two springs and finished third in the cross country race at the Cheltenham Festival last month. Other horses have better form and standout on a number of the criteria but The Last Samuri fits the bill most and can win the 2018 Grand National.

Jumping the last fence in the 2016 race The Last Samuri looked the most likely winner. Even half way up the punishing run-in there looked like only one winner. However, The Last Samuri was overhauled by Rule The World and had to settle for second place. A year later the horse never really got involved at the business end of the National and finished a remote 16th. It could be third time lucky this time.

The National is now more akin to a conditions handicap chase in which there are any number of potential winners. The inner material of the fences is softer than in the past so they are more forgiving. The weights are now suppressed to attract a better class of horse and it’s now not uncommon for Gold Cup horses to run. A greater range of horses can now win the race because many more now run off their true weight. Anibale Fly was third in this year’s Gold Cup and is a leading contender.

A women has never ridden the winner of the Grand National but there has been a market move on Katie Walsh’s mount. Baie Des Iles is only a seven-year-old but is proven on soft ground and is almost certain to stay. Any more rain would improve the horse’s chances and the weather forecast suggested a wet spell in the days before the race. The handicapper has given Walsh’s ride a chance. However, it will take an exceptional young horse to win the National and for that reason a female will have to wait another year to win the race.

The romantics would love to see Baie Des Iles win the National but the trends suggest it will be beyond the horse. All the key pointers indicate that The Last Samuri is the horse to back in this year’s Grand National.

The Festival Has Arrived!

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It’s here! The first day of the festival has arrived and as I write this I’m looking out over Cheltenham and the hustle and bustle of the place. Bin men, people going to work, buses and cars driving about but not a single item of tweed in sight!

I’m pretty sure, everyone going to the festival is still in bed! We were out last night and there were plenty of festival goers supping ale and talking about who was going to win what. There’s always an air of optimism before the first day and it was great to see so many horse racing enthusiasts in one place. There will certainly be a few sore heads out there, this morning!

If you’ve never been to the festival before, then one of the first highlights is walking up Evesham Road toward the course. The atmosphere is incredible. It’s the same as walking to the stadium on a big match day. There’s the touts, buskers, burger vans, people handing out flyers, free scarfs, flags etc. Everyone is excited and the air is filled with optimism. The second highlight is arriving and walking into the Guinness village. Yes, a whole area devoted to the black nectar. The trick here is to stand by the bins! It’s easier to get a pint and you can get to the rails and watch the races a lot quicker.

Anyway, we’ll be heading to the course at 11.30 am to take in all of the sights and sounds. I’ve got all of my bets placed and have cash in hand to get money down on course. It’s always worth trying to get to the rails bookies where Hill’s trades as these are the first pitches and it’s where you can witness people placing £10,000’s. I’ve often seen people with 10K in £50 notes getting on a favourite. A spectacle in itself!

So, with the excitement brewing, it’s time to take stock and think about the plan for the day. I’ve covered my thoughts in previous articles and you can read those on the blog. I’ve outlined my best bets of the day, below –

13:30 – Kalashnikov each way

14:10 – Saint Calvados win

17:30 – Testify each way

Plus a double on the two odds-on favourites.

All bets have been placed and some more money will be placed on course.

I’ll be back on Thursday with a look back on the first two days and another look at Gold Cup day. Until then, be lucky and enjoy the festival 🙂

Bookies Are Already Offering Non-Runner No Bet On Festival Races – By Ian Hudson

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It’s still more than two months before the Cheltenham Festival but the battle of the bookies to win your betting pound has begun. Three major operators will give you your money back if a horse you back in five of the most prestigious races do not take part. You can combine this concession with best odds guaranteed which means bets will be settled at SP if that is a bigger price than the ante post price. The non-runner no bet offer has never been introduced in January before but three bookmakers will refund stakes on ante post wagers on horses withdrawn before the race day.

Here are some ante-post pointers for the five Festival races that apply:

Champion Hurdle

Faugheen’s inexplicably bad run in Ireland over Christmas made it a one horse race before the markets readjusted. Buveur D’Air would merely have to turn up and jump around the course to win the Champion Hurdle again. However, Faugheen has been introduced back into the betting but the horse now has many questions to answer. Assuming Buveur D’Air is home and hosed we must now identify some each way value. APPLES JADE would get the mare’s allowance and that could persuade connections to go down the Champion Hurdle route.

Champion Chase

Market leader Altior is some punters banker of the meeting and the horse’s form for this race is in the book. Politologue is the new kid on the block, proven at the highest level and is a worthy second favourite. Special Tiara won last year’s race but a recent fall at Kempton does not augur well when under pressure in Politologue’s last race. Charbel was upsides to Altior before falling at the second last in the Arkle Chase. The horse was still going quite well and would not necessarily have been outpaced up the hill. Even so at the ante post odds CHARBEL is an ante post wager worth making.

Stayers’ Hurdle

Sadly Nichols Canyon who the race last season suffered a fatal accident at Leopardstown over Christmas. Despite not winning the stayer’s championship for hurdlers Unowhatimeanharry had the best form leading up to the race. The horse then won at Punchestown and made a winning start to the season but was disappointing in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December after finishing second to 40/1 shot Beer Goggles at Newbury. SAM SPINNER won the Ascot race and is the favourite for a very open Stayers’ Hurdle but that is justified on form and ratings.

Ryanair Chase

This is the championship chase at the intermediate distance and the betting market is unclear because running plans have not been confirmed. Several of the leading contenders could be targeted at other races and that muddies the waters. CUE CARD is not the force of old and has been tried and exposed in the Gold Cup, falling in the last two renewals. The Ryanair Chase is now being considered and you can’t do much damage at the latest odds and you should get a run.

Gold Cup

Might Bite is being trained to run in the Gold Cup and will fall or win the race. The horse won the King George on Boxing day, a race that is seen as the mid-season championship for chasers. Sizing John and Yorkhill blotted their copybooks in Ireland and Thistlecrack finished six lengths behind Might Bite in the King George so needs to show plenty of improvement to reverse the form.  MIGHT BITE has given backers some thrill and spills but can win the Gold Cup in 2018 at Cheltenham.