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Rick’s Sports Betting: A Christmas Thistle Cracker in The King George? – By Rick Elliott

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The King George V1 Chase has a history of producing multiple winners over the last 10 years and only the last three winners have won the race once since 2008. Kauto Star, Long Run and Silviniaco Conti all won more than one King George over that spell and Thistlecrack can win the race again two years after winning it for the first time. The mid-season championship chase takes place over three miles at Kempton Park on Boxing Day. Some of the best chasers in the sport have won it. 

Trends can provide clues for the potential winners of championship races. Grade 1 races over fences are run at the same tracks and date from year to year and there are some established trials. The profile of past winners can help to identify the leading contenders for the upcoming race. The King George is a major trail for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the second most important steeplechase of the season. Over the last decade the background of the winner has had a number of factors in common which in some cases have been without exception. 

The King George attracts the best staying chasers in Britain and Ireland and sometimes from further afield. Francois Doumen often brought his best chasers to run in the race from France. From 1987 to 2000 he won the King George five times with four different horses. The common factor was that his winners were amongst the best rated chasers when he travelled to Kempton over Christmas. However, Kauto Star (2011) was the last winner to also win the Gold Cup. Long Run, Best Mate and Kicking King have also won both races this century.       

Every winner of the King George over the last 10 years has had an adjusted Racing Post Rating of 174. All but one winner in that spell had run in eight chases or more. Nine of that 10 had been successful in at least one Grade 1 chase and the same number won the King George aged from six to nine. Two trends have delivered four times out of five so 80% of the winners have won a graded chase from 2 miles 4 furlongs to 2 miles and 6 furlongs and been rated within 6lbs of the top rated runner. All but two of the last 10 winners also had chase winning form over three miles or more. Six winners had run in the King George before.      

There are a number of intended runners in the 2018 race who meet some of the qualifying criteria for possible winners. More significantly the trainer to follow in staying races is Colin Tizzard. He won the Gold Cup last season with Native River and two of the last three King George’s with Cue Card and Thistlecrack. Cue Card has been retired but Native River and Thistlecrack are still in the declared runners for the King George and the latter is best suited to the track. Native River could have some limitations exposed going right-handed at Kempton. 

Thistlecrack is proven over the course and distance. The horse has not won a race since the Boxing Day feature in 2016. However, Thistlecrack ran a promising trial in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. The horse charged up the home straight better than any of the other runners without the jockey asking too many questions. Thistlecrack produced an RPR just two pounds below his best and that form and rating and other elements makes Thistlecrack the trends selection for the King George.    

              

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

Everton Can Avoid Defeat At The Etihad 

If you were asked to select Manchester City’s best 11 John Stones, David Silva, Sergio Aguero and Kevin de Bruyne would be on the team sheet. If you were asked to name one Everton player who is indispensable the name of Idrissa Gueye would unlikely to feature. All five players will be absent today when Manchester City are at home to Everton in a fixture that has produced a draw in the last three seasons. 

City have won nine home Premier League matches in a row but Everton have not been disgraced against top six teams on their travels. At the latest odds the DRAW is the bet of this match at 13/2 with bet365.  These two teams have won more corners than anybody else in the Premier League this season.

Fulham and West Ham who meet at Craven Cottage today are in the bottom half of the table for corners won. The home team are on course to break the record for goals conceded in a 38-match Premier League season. The Hammers have won six league matches this season but only kept a clean sheet in one of those fixtures. 

Fulham are at the bottom of the table while West Ham have won three EPL matches on the bounce. Fulham have the worst defence in the division but West Ham usually concede when they win a match. The trends suggest a West Ham win with both teams scoring but a more cautious option is just BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 8/15 with William Hill.    

The racing Press have caught up with how unlucky Rather Be was in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham. The horse is all the rage to win the second big handicap chase at Cheltenham before Christmas today. The International Hurdle (3.05) is also an intriguing race which The New One is trying to win for the fourth time. Jumping let Summerville Boy down against Samcro and Buvuer D’Air at Newcastle but the horse still won the Festival opener in March after making a pig’s ear of the last two hurdles. SUMMERVILLE BOY is the horse to back at 3/1 with Betfair.  

The Million Pound Bonus Is On For Might Bite – By Ian Hudson

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Might Bite should have favourable ground conditions in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on Saturday. The horse has the form to win the first leg of the three major staying chases series that offers a one million pound bonus for any horse that wins each race. The other two most prestigious chases are the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day and the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. Might Bite has the scope, class and stamina to prevail on the three different courses and win the bonus. Gold Cup winner Native River is his nearest rival in the betting for the Betfair Chase. 

The Gold Cup in March developed into virtually a two horse race from the start. Native River led for most of the race but Might Bite looked like overhauling the horse in the straight. Might Bite actually went ahead but Native River outstayed his rival up the hill. The Haydock race is the first time since that day that the horses have clashed but on this occasion Might Bite will be more suited to the ground. The betting market has reacted to the projected good going which suits Might Bite’s style of running. The horse can win the first stage of the treble which brings the huge financial reward. 

Kauto Star is the only horse to win all three races in the same season when the bonus was on offer. Cue Card won the first two qualifying contests three years ago but then fell late on in the Gold Cup when looking like the winner. It’s such a tough ask because the three courses that stage the races are different. Haydock is flat and left-handed, Kempton is flat and right handed and Cheltenham is undulating and right handed. A horse must possess stamina and speed to handle the three courses over three miles to three miles and two furlongs.

Politologue has the required attributes but the horse misses the Betfair Chase in favour of a Grade 2 chase at Ascot over two miles and five furlongs. The long term target is the Gold Cup so the horse could be tried over three miles for the first time in the King George, pending a good run at Ascot. Politologue is owned by John Hales who made his money from the Teletubbies. Hales also owned One Man who didn’t have the stamina to win the Gold Cup but did win the King George. He won the Grand National with Neptune Collonges in 2012 but now wants a Gold Cup.  Politologue’s run at the weekend will tell us if he has a contender in 2019. 

Might Bite is trained by Nicky Henderson who also looked after Sprinter Sacre. That horse won two Champion Chases and was one of the highest rated jumpers over the last ten years. Henderson believes Might Bite is in the same class which is a testimony to his ability. If the trainer is correct his horse should be beating Native River off level weights on a flat track on good going. Might Bite was an impressive winner of the Betfair Bowl at Aintree in April in similar conditions. After the Betfair Chase only one horse can win the bonus. Intended runner, Bristol De Mai, won the race last year but could not complete the treble which is within the scope of Might Bite. 

Rick’s Sports Betting: Might Bite Can Win The £1 Million Bonus – By Rick Elliott

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Kauto Star is the only horse to win it but Cue Card came very close! There is a £1 million bonus on offer for any horse that wins the three most prestigious non-handicap staying chases of the season. Might Bite has the ability to emulate Kauto Star. The horse will not be disadvantaged by any of the three tracks that stage the races and has the scope to handle each test.

The Jockey Club will fund the Triple Crown bonus which will be awarded to connections if one horse wins the Betfair Chase at Haydock, King George V1 Chase at Kempton and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The only winner of the bonus was Kauto Star in the 2004-05 season. Three seasons ago Cue Card won the first two qualifying races and then fell three fences from home when going well in the Gold Cup. The nature of the three host courses makes this such a tough challenge. 

Only the very best staying chases can win around the flat left-handed track at Haydock, the flat right-handed track at Kempton and the undulating left-handed track at Cheltenham. Several horses have the potential to win one of the races but only Might Bite can adapt to the different features at each of the three courses. At the time of writing the horse was the second favourite for the first leg, the Betfair Chase at Haydock towards the end of November.    

Bristol De Mai is the current favourite for that race and a repeat of last season’s effort will make the horse difficult to beat. Bristol De Mai ran the rest of the field ragged on ground and track that suited his running style and attributes. As the winner of the Betfair Chase the horse was the only contender for the bonus. Connections had to run the horse in the King George but he was well beaten and Might Bite won the race. Speed is important at Kempton and Might Bite has that in spades.

The ground at Cheltenham on Gold Cup day went against Might Bite so the effort in running Native River so close was out of the top draw. Might Bite was then impressive when winning the Betfair Bowl at Aintree on good ground. Native River outstayed Might Bite on the run-in in the Gold Cup on ground that suited the horse’s style of running and attributes. Might Bite can reverse the form on better ground but Thistlecrack at his best could be the fly in the ointment.  

Might Bite has won at Cheltenham and Kempton and on the flat left-handed track at Aintree which is similar to Haydock. The horse has the versatility to win over three miles to three miles and two furlongs on tracks with different configurations and undulations. The chaser’s Triple Crown is similar to the Flat equivalent for winning three Classics in that the courses are different and a horse must be peaking on three separate days over several months. Might Bite is the best equipped horse and can be only the second winner of the £1 million bonus.  

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Native River 7/1 For 2019 Gold Cup

NATIVE RIVER is 7/1 with Ladbrokes to win the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup and its going to take some special horse to beat the champion up the hill in the most prestigious chase in the sport next season. Native River and Might Bite dominated the race yesterday and in an epic contest Native River outstayed the runner-up after being briefly headed in the straight.

The performance was the epitome of a staying chaser but Native River does not have an entry for the Grand National so can’t achieve a double that only Golden Miller (1934) has managed in the past. ANIBALE FLY was third in the Gold Cup and can now be backed at 25/1 with Betfair to win the National.

If the Gold Cup is the Blue Riband of chasing the National is the most famous steeplechase in the world. The original Aintree version attracts a huge global audience but the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter today will not stop any nations but is the biggest race of the season at the Staffordshire track. It will have to produce something exceptional to match the drama of a wonderful Gold Cup.

In racing there is always another day and another race. It was a bookies benefit at Cheltenham on Friday when not one favourite obliged. There were big-priced winners all day so punters are now on the back foot. Native River was a bad result for the bookies but generally results went their way. ALFIE SPINNER was second in the Welsh National and can go one better in the Midlands version at 14/1 with Ladbrokes.

Brighton Are Fancied To Force A Replay

Manchester United play Brighton in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup at Old Trafford today. It is going require something out of the ordinary to get the fans back onside. The loss to Sevilla at home in the Champions League was a massive disappointment and Jose Mourinho’s reaction did not help. Winning the FA Cup is not a patch on being the champions of Europe and even that could go wrong because Brighton are fancied to force a replay and the DRAW is 9/2 with bet365.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Native River Is The Heart And Head Gold Cup Bet 

The heart says Might Bite, the head says Our Duke but a combination of the heart and head says Native River who is the tip to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup. There is a trend this century for multiple winners of the four major championship races. However, today will see a new winner of the Gold Cup because no former champions are in the field but its still looks like an intriguing contest. With conditions to suit NATIVE RIVER must be backed at 5/1 with Ladbrokes.

Horses that have run well at the festival in the past often produce the goods again at the jumps meeting that matters most. Native River was second in the NH Chase in 2016 and third in the Gold Cup last year. The horse is most effective on soft ground and it’s soft at Cheltenham today and heavy in places. The underfoot conditions will be testing and that should give Native River an edge in this demanding race. MINELLA ROCCO was second last year and is 28/1 with William Hill.

Apple’s Shakira is unbeaten in four starts and has been backed as though defeat in the Triumph Hurdle is out of the question. The filly gets a seven pounds weight allowance from the male horses and that concession could be crucial to the final outcome. However, Stormy Island is also a filly and receives the same weight allowance from the boys. On speed figures this is the female horse to back and not the favourite so STORMY ISLAND is the bet at 6/1 with Betfair.

Santini has been something of a talking horse for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. The key trial for today’s race was a novice hurdle over two miles four furlongs at Newbury in December. Santini beat Chef Des Obeaux with something to spare and was also not far behind Black Op in January and that horse got closest to Samcro on Wednesday. However, with proven stamina and the potential for improvement CHEF DES OBEAUX is the runner to back at 11/2 with Coral.

Ian’s Racing Preview – By Ian Hudson

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Not Many Sleeps Before Cheltenham 

There is unlikely to be any turf racing in Britain this week so it could be just All-Weather fare for the next few days. However, even tracks designed to race when it freezes elsewhere can’t do much about heavy snow in the stands and on the roads near the course. Cheltenham has not escaped the Beast from the East which means there’s a chance that the first day of the Festival a week on Tuesday will have soft going.

The principle jumps meeting on Saturday is at Newbury but racing is unlikely to go ahead. The Cheltenham horses have now had their prep-races so trainers can only hope their entries don’t pick up any injuries. The Imperial Cup at Sandown next Saturday is often won by a horse that then runs at the Festival the following week. A horse could be well in after running above expectations at Sandown. There is a bonus for a horse winning the Imperial Cup and at Cheltenham a few days later.

The Cheltenham Festival dominates National Hunt racing like no other single occasion dominates any other sport. There are 40 Grade 1 jumps races throughout the season and 13 of them take place over the four days of the meeting that matters most. The Festival has been known as the Olympics of jumps racing but we don’t have to wait four years from the end of one meeting to the beginning of the next. Native River could win the Gold Cup which is the most prestigious steeplechase in the world.

Native River is more about stamina than speed so not at his best on a fast surface. The horse makes few jumping errors and keeps going at the end of a race when other runners cry enough. If it’s not soft the front-running style should set up the race for a fast finisher who is more about speed than resolutely staying on at the end of the race. The softer the going the better the prospects for Native River to win the big chase.

Buveur D’Air will win the Champion Hurdle even if it was run in treacle. The horse is head and shoulders above the other leading contenders and looks just about impossible to beat. The other runners are racing for second place and there is some each-way value further down the betting. Bookmakers will not accept place only bets but some betting exchanges will accommodate this bet. My Tent Or Yours could be placed again but there could be some value in backing Wicklow Brave each-way.

The Champion Chase has Altior’s name written on it but Douvan could still spoil the party. That horse is only given a 50-50 chance of running but if taking part the race would be one of the highlights of the meeting. Douvan has been absent through injury and Altior has been running like one of the best horses in training.

It’s difficult to see beyond the favourite but Douvan could shake up the race and deserves to take part after injury. However, the horse bombed last year in the Champion Chase, won by Special Tiarra. The race has a history of producing back-to-back and multiple winners but the defending champion has too much to do.

The Ryanair Chase has never been won by the O’Leary brothers who own many jumps horses but keep coming up short. The race has now superseded the stayers’ hurdle as the third day highlight due to more prize money. Ggginstown, the O’Leary’s stable, could benefit from a shock when one of their outsiders obliges but the more likely scenario is another win in the race for Un De Sceaux. All roads now lead to Cheltenham!

You can be part of betting action by joining BetFan’s Cheltenham Special 2018 by Clicking Here.

Altior And Native Rivers Must Perform In The Dress Rehearsals – By Ian Hudson

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The Cheltenham Festival begins four weeks on Tuesday so this weekend is the last opportunity for potential runners to race and then have enough time to recover. The best horse in action at Newbury on Saturday is Altior but his trainer believes the horse is more vulnerable than at any other time in his career. Altior must win the Exchange Chase to justify favouritism for the Queen Mother Chase. Native River is auditioning for another crack at the Gold Cup on the same card.

The Betfair Hurdle is one of the most competitive handicaps over the smaller obstacles and often attracts a big field. There should be at least 16 runners this year which means bookmakers will settle each way bets at one quarter the odds for the first four places. The other races previewed won’t have the required eight runners for three payout places and they are more about quality than quantity.

Altior is trained by Nicky Henderson who had the brilliant Sprinter Sacre winning races at the highest level for five years. The trainer believes Altior could be as good and is potentially his stable star and that’s saying something when it houses the current favourite for the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup. Altior has won different races at the last two Cheltenham Festivals so is looking for a rare treble in March.

Politologue has the best chase form over two miles in Britain this season. The horse won the Tingle Creek Chase in impressive style and that is a recognised trial for the two mile championship. Altior can put down a marker for that race by beating Politologue but that will be a tough ask after a ten month absence from the track. On past form and ratings Altior is the horse to beat in the Exchange Chase and then the big one at Cheltenham next month.

Native River won two major handicaps last season with something in hand and that made the horse a Gold Cup contender. Native River ran a fine race to be third to Sizing John but that horse has underperformed this season. The Gold Cup is a demanding race that takes a great deal out of runners and back-to-back wins are rare. Best Mate won the race three times in a row at the start of the century but was an exceptional animal and Sizing John is not in that class.

The Denman Chase is Native River’s prep for the Gold Cup and he must win comfortably in an average race to have any chance at Cheltenham. Newbury is a flat track and the race is over less than three miles. Native River won the old Hennessy Gold Cup on the course last season so relishes the conditions and can jump the fences. A clear cut win is required and anything less will take Native River out of the Gold Cup equation and the other four runners are not proven at the highest level.

Lalor was one of the best bumper horses last season and is a novice running in a big field handicap. The Betfair Hurdle could be too much for the horse and Jenkins has better credentials. Jenkins is trained by Henderson and he has won five Betfair Hurdles in its different guises. If he wins another and Altior prevails it will have been a good day at the office.

Class Can Prevail In The Scottish National With Henri Parry Morgan – Rick Elliott

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Henri Parry Morgan could be thrown in at the weights for the Scottish Grand National at Ayr on Saturday. It’s National season and the bookies are reeling from two well backed winners of the original and Irish version but Missed Approach could do them a favour in Scotland’s most famous race. Vicente is trying to become the first back-to-back winner since Androma in 1984 and 1985.

The Scottish Grand National is run over four miles and half a furlong which equates to three laps of Ayr racecourse. There are 27 fences to be jumped and it is a true marathon and not a sprint. There are three triple winners but not since the 1950’s. The latest multiple winner of the race is Merigo who prevailed in 2010 and 2012. Al Co and Vicente are the two former winners in the field that can complete a double.

The race moved to Ayr from Bogside in 1966 and only one winner since then has carried 12 stone. Grey Abbey carried the biggest weight to victory this century in 2004 with 11 stone 12 pounds. Since 2000 the winners have been in the 7 to 11 age group. There has been no winner trained in Ireland of the race ay Ayr. Tony McCoy only won the race in 1997 and Ruby Walsh has never ridden the winner while Nicky Henderson has never been the successful trainer.

Henri Parry Morgan has come down the weights over the last 12 months due to some disappointing efforts. Ground conditions have been against the horse but backers have had to accept not getting a run or value for their bets this season. Henri Parry Morgan carries 10 stone 10 pounds on Saturday and on official ratings must be backed at 28/1. Other horses are preferred in the betting but overall these have less proven form. Our Duke and One For Arthur have won Nationals with similar profiles.

There is a maximum potential field of 30 runners so at least 16 will go to post. The race is a handicap so that means place terms of one quarter the odds for four places but some bookmakers may go five. If you back Henri Parry Morgan in the morning I suggest you take a price because the professionals might latch on to the horse if the ground is in his favour and good to soft would be ideal. Taking best odds guaranteed is also advised as there could be a drift and a bigger starting price.

Henri Parry Morgan has produced the most eye catching piece of form of the entire field. The horse was beaten by just three lengths off level weights by Native River in a Grade 1 novice chase at Aintree last April. Blaklion was almost four lengths behind our headline horse and he looked the most likely winner of the Grand National this year for most of the race. If Henri Parry Morgan runs to the level he produced at Aintree he wins at a canter carrying four pounds less than 11 stone.

Missed Approach could be backed at 16/1 after the five day declarations but there could be a move on the horse after positive news from the trainer. Warren Greatrex believes his horse has the right credentials for the Ayr long distance test following an impressive run at Cheltenham. He commented in the Racing Post this week that:

“Missed Approach put in a great performance at Cheltenham. It didn’t surprise me because I think he’s a really good horse. He ran really well and has come out of that great and this is a good race for novices. The conditions will suit and if he gets into a nice rhythm he could run a big race”.

The Scottish National carries a level of prize money that would open up the trainer’s championship if Paul Nicholls won the race with Vicente again or one of his other two potential starters. However, Henderson seems home and hosed in that market and Nicholls would still be off the pace even if he bagged the Scottish National again. The prizes for top jockey, Richard Johnson again, and trainer will be presented at Sandown next Saturday when the Whitbread is run! (Or whatever its called these days).

Al Co looks a bit too long in the truth to repeat the win in 2014 so Henri Parry Morgan is the tip. Bad form is temporary and proven class is permanent and any Scottish Grand National horse just three lengths inferior to Native River is a graded horse running in a handicap. Henri Parry Morgan can prove that adage is correct at Ayr on Saturday.

 

 

Cheltenham Day 3 & 4 – By Rick Elliott

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Unowhatimeanharry Is The Day Three Banker At Cheltenham 

Unowhatimeanharry must be the banker of the third day of the Cheltenham Festival and we are guaranteed a run barring injury while the waters are muddied in two of the other graded races due to unconfirmed running plans. Unowhatimeanharry is the best staying hurdler in Britain and Ireland and as such is a worthy favourite for the Stayers’ Hurdle. Let’s Dance looks a good thing in the mares’ novice race but the JLT and Ryanair chases are complicated due to a number of entries with alternative targets.

It has been proven many times that winning form at previous festivals is a good form guide. Unowhatimeanharry won the novices’ equivalent of the stayers’ hurdle last year and has continued to improve in the senior ranks. The horse has won the main trials and has no other entries so could start odds-on on Thursday. Vroum Vroum Mag and Yanworth are almost certain not to run and that would consolidate Unowhatimeanharry’s position at the head of the market.

The horse is now owned by JP McManus and his Yanworth ran in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday while Vroum Vroum Mag was declared for the mares’ race on the same day. It is feasible but not likely for a horse to run twice in three days and an early fall would make that scenario more understandable. Jezki will take his chance in the stayers’ race but on form beating the favourite will be too much to ask for the former winner of the Champion Hurdle.

Yorkhill was a leading novice hurdler last season and won the Neptune at the festival. The Champion Hurdle was still an option earlier this week but connections have dismissed that plan so the JLT Novices’ Chase is on the cards for which Yorkhill is a strong favourite. However, the horse has not looked totally convincing over fences in novice chases and Politologue is a viable alternative. Top Notch also has solid form in the context of the race but Politologue at almost twice the price is the value bet.

Betting for the Ryanair Chase looks settled even though Douvan is quoted. That horse wins the Champion Chases if staying up and with such a high cruising speed costly jumping errors are unlikely. Un De Sceaux would be the form pick in the Ryanair but Uxizandre won the race two years ago so is proven over the course and distance. God’s Own would be an interesting runner but the Champion Chase option is preferred.

The Pertemps Final is an open three mile handicap hurdle and Tobefair is a good story if winning. The horse is owned by a syndicate based in a pub in West Wales and has won seven races on the bounce. However, handicaps of this nature are often won by unexposed horse so Tobefair looks a false favourite. The card is completed by two handicap chases which are too open for a definite opinion but Unowhatimeanharry cannot be ignored in the Stayers Hurdle.

Djakadam Can Finally Win The Gold Cup 

Most of the talk in the months leading up to the Gold Cup has centred around horses trained by Colin Tizzard but Djakadam can win the race for Willie Mullins and both have had near misses in the past. Djakadam has finished second in the last two renewals while Mullins has trained the runner-up six times in total so is long overdue a win in the most prestigious chase of the season.

Thistelcrack has fallen by the wayside but Tizzard still has the two shortest priced entries in Native River and Cue Card. The former looks ideally suited to the demands of the Gold Cup while the latter deserves to win the Blue Riband of chasing. However, Native River is a solid horse who will keep going but could be vulnerable to a speedier type and a negative for the 11-year-old Cue Card is age as no horse older than 10 has won the Gold Cup since 1969. By process of elimination that brings Djakadam right into the mix so both horse and trainer can win that elusive Gold Cup.

Djakadam was no match for Coneygree (2015) and Don Cossack (2016) but both horses are absent. In theory that means Djakadam takes the best form into the race and is the right age this year to finally deliver. The horse has been lightly raced and trained specifically for Cheltenham and the trainer believes he is spot on. One slight concern would be the two falls at Cheltenham but the jumping was excellent when it mattered most in the last two Gold Cups and this is now Djakadam’s time.

The Gold Cup card starts with the Triumph Hurdle which is the championship race for juveniles. Defu Du Seuil has been heavily backed and is the worst result for some bookmakers based on ante post wagers. In this age group the horse sets the standard with five wins over hurdles after running in two bumpers in France. Charli Parcs fell in a prep-race at Kempton so Master Blueyes is the most likely alternative to beat the favourite but that horse looks rock solid on all known form.

The Albert Bartlett is the race won by Unowhatimeanharry and identifies the best novice hurdler over long distances. Gordon Elliott believes Death Duty is the best novice he has trained but Wholestone could out stay him and upset the odds. The horse has winning form at Cheltenham and more battle hardened than his closest rival in the betting. On ratings the horses are closely matched but Wholestone is three times the price with some bookmakers so must be backed.

The Foxhunters is the hunter chasers’ Gold Cup and On The Fringe can complete a treble in the race but Paint The Clouds makes more appeal at the relative odds. The card also features three devilishly difficult handicaps in which stakes should be kept to a minimum so you can concentrate more resources on backing Djakadam to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Simon Holden Racing Club

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Newbury stage a vital day of racing and Cheltenham Trials today and the course has taken all precautions to get this meeting on.

Covers have been down all week over the whole course A great example to other courses and we are all set to go.

It will be fantastic to see superstar Altior strut his stuff, he remains a horse of immense potential and I wonder if Nicky Henderson sometimes wishes he had kept him over hurdles as he says the Champion Hurdle market unravel. But the decision was made to send him chasing and so far he has been faultless.

We then have the match between Bristol de Man and Native River in the Denman Chase. I will be at Newbury today and it’s hard not to think of the great Denman charging down this home straight. Todays race should be a cracker and massive respect to Colin Tizzard and Nigel Twiston Davies for running these horses and letting us see them, take note Mr Mullins.

But they are for starters as the main event is the Betfair Hurdle one of the best Handicaps run all year and todays looks a cracker. This is one of the first handicaps where novices take on the old guard and in this race it’s often wise to side with a progressive novice who is ahead of its rating as opposed to an exposed older horse. Ballyandey looks the perfect type for this race and his Trainer is typically bullish about his chances. He gets in here off 11 stone 1 and that looks a winning mark. 9/2 with bet365 should be availed this morning as I can see this going off much shorter.

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Back next Saturday.

Simon Holden Racing Club