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Rick’s Sports Betting: Opposing Hand Picked Greyhounds For Profit – By Rick Elliott

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Greyhound racing in Britain has a format that has not changed for many years. In terms of the number of active tracks the sport appears to be in decline. However, Racing Post Greyhound TV shows live racing every night so the sport must be doing something right. Every race involves six dogs who run from traps and statistics can be used to identify runners to lay in graded races.

Each track employs a handicapper who assesses the relative merits of dogs based at the track. They are assigned places in graded races baaed on their ability and the best dogs race from the best traps. Statistically Trap 1 and Trap 6 provide most winners because the dogs are best positioned to avoid trouble in running. Runners from Traps 2 to 5 are more likely to bump into each other at the first bend.

If the dog running from Trap 1 starts the race well and takes the first bend in front of the rest of the field the race can be over. A favourite that “pins the lids” (breaks well) from the inside trap will be hard to catch and can gain a winning advantage over the first 50 metres of the race. The other dogs will be scrambling for position around the first bend and there could be interference.

The dogs drawn wide on the outside can drift further out to avoid trouble in running while the other four runners must fight for a good position as they head into the back straight. Statistics show that runners from Trap 2 and Trap 5 are more likely to have their runs disrupted by collisions and these dogs can be out of a race in the early stages. Money can be made opposing dogs running from these traps.

It is best to focus on graded races rather than heats in open competitions. The form is more reliable and the dogs are exposed. They are racing at their true level while in open races their might be little collateral form. If you looking to lay dogs to make money you should focus on graded races but ignore Grade 1 and Grade 10 level as these are the extremes and the statistics do not hold up as well as in the other grades.

There are trap statistics online which show the winning percentages at each track. We are not concerned with Trap 1 and Trap 6 but we are interested in the statistics for the other four traps. You should identify the trap that has produced fewest winners in the calendar year. If two or more traps have the same winning percentage use results for second place finishes to determine the trap number to lay.

Race cards are published in the Racing Post or on websites online. You have identified the dogs to lay but if the forecast starting price is more than 6/1 these dogs are eliminated. You should also ignore any greyhound that finished first or second on the last start and disregard dogs that recorded the best time over the race distance on the last run. There will be about 6 qualifying races at each meeting and you will now have a list of dogs to lay.

 

You can apply a level stake strategy or use a compounding bank. Your lay stake will be to lose a fixed amount which goes up during a winning run and drops during a period of losing bets. You are laying dogs running from traps 2,3,4 and 5 so generally are opposing the slowest dogs who are most likely to find trouble in running. Over time this strategy will make you steady profits when you want a dog not to win.

Punting Strategies – By The Champagne Kid

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There has been a series of articles recently in the Racing Post, in which contributors to the daily racing paper give insights into their punting strategies.  The Racing Post correspondents who I will quote, and to whose quotes I will add my own comments, are Graeme Rodway (GR), Brian Sheerin (BS) and Richard Birch (RB).

GR: There is no perfect strategy to make money, no such thing as a certainty in life, and I’ve simply given up trying to find winners. Instead I’m trying to find value. I play the percentages by backing horses that, in my opinion, are bigger prices than they should be. My first piece of advice is stop trying to pick winners and instead concentrate on finding horses who are the wrong price.

My Comments:  I concur completely with trying to find value, but I still want to end up with a selection that I feel for one reason or another is a likely winner.  That said, ‘finding value’ is still the most important part of the race analysis.

GR: I’m not a science type and definitely don’t place too much emphasis on the data. The problem I have with that approach is it’s there for all to see, including bookmakers, and doesn’t get missed in the markets.

My Comments:  I cannot agree with this.  I use data to a great degree in my analysis.  It most certainly is not “there for all to see.”  I come across so many angles on a daily basis that are just not generally known by the betting public or the bookmakers.  Example – In the last 10 years on turf, trainer William Haggas has a 46% strike-rate (23 winners from 50) with 5lb claimers in non-apprentice only races.  This has yielded a profit of £52.01 (104%) to £1 level stakes at Betfair SP.  Just from 50 races.  Are the bookies or the general public aware of this every time Haggas has a 5lb claimer up in a non-apprentice only race?  I think not.

BS:  Be disciplined.  Whether it’s in life or in work, discipline is key. It is crucial not to chase losses. In that respect it is important to keep a full account of your bets. They can make grim reading when you’re going poorly, but it’s important to learn from your mistakes and take the good with the bad.

My Comments:  I am 100% on board with this.  My Champagne Kid service has had an appalling month so far, the results do indeed make for grim reading, and I sincerely hope that my members are able to take the bad (this month to date) with the good (the previous 2 months showed 388 points profit).

BS:  Don’t be put off by the price. Well, maybe do if it’s shorter than you’d anticipated, but if you fancy one and it opens up bigger than you expected, there’s no reason not to get stuck in.

My Comments:  Whilst I will occasionally get stuck into a short-priced horse (short-priced for me is around 7/4 to 9/4; any shorter is not of interest), my long-term profits come from the bigger priced horses.  The problem with this is that losing runs can be lengthy and dispiriting (this month is a good example of that), but over a decent period of time, profit is made.

BS:  It’s a cliché but there’s never been as much information available to the punter than there is now and it would be foolish not to take advantage of all the great material and tools that are out there. I’m not a huge fan of horse trackers but I read as many opinions and views that I can get my hands on.

My Comments:  The amount of information available to punters is indeed hugely increased from years gone by.  There could still be more information made available, sectional timing being one area I would like to see more progress being made in.  I don’t see any negatives in the use of horse-trackers.  Unless you have perfect memory and forensic eyesight, you’re going to miss one that you have been waiting for without a tracker in place.

BS:  Go racing.  You have the opportunity to study the horses in the flesh, plus as a punter I find it good to be in contact with likeminded people; being able to bounce ideas off others has proved invaluable down the years.

My Comments:  I love going racing, but unfortunately I just do not have an eye for spotting much in the paddock.  I wish I did, but even after reading articles and books on the subject, I still don’t have that eye.   I don’t see that changing, and I’ll just have to live with it.

RB:  There are no short cuts in punting if you’re serious about winning. It’s all about working hard, putting in a ridiculous amount of hours, and coping with the relentless grind during the peak summer months.

My Comments:  I agree with this completely.  The worse things have got for my service this month, the harder I have worked to correct it.  So much so that my bets are put out at the very last minute most days.  The results this month show scant reward for the effort put in, but I owe it to my members to put in the shifts and turn things around, and that hard work will continue.

RB:  Steer clear of each-way betting.  I used to be a big disciple of each-way betting, but mainly steer clear nowadays. The reason is that most of the horses I back are bang triers and ridden to win.

My Comments:  “The horses I back are bang triers.”  Good for you Richard!  I find this statement to be slightly arrogant, a fault which I feel is unfortunately often not hard to find in Richard’s writing.  For lesser mortals such as me, I will continue to use each-way betting where I deem it appropriate.

RB:  Bet on a day-to-day basis.  I can be buzzing after a great day or despondent after doing my brains. However, as soon as I wake up the following morning that all has to be forgotten and I must have moved on.

My Comments:  OK Richard, I’m back on the same page with you again.  As Kipling said – “If you can meet with triumph and disaster and treat those two impostors just the same… you’ll be a man, my son.”   It can sometimes be difficult to react to a series of poor results with a balanced viewpoint, but that is something I am much better able to do than in earlier years.  I see no reason for my methods to suddenly stop working and feel sure that the recent poor run will shortly be overcome.  My members can rest assured that I will continue to work hard on their behalf to make it so.

CLICK HERE TO VISIT THE CHAMPAGNE KID

HOW TO PROFIT FROM FOOTY ALL YEAR ROUND

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SIMPLE SOCCER SYSTEMS THAT BUILD YOUR BANK

The European season proper is now over and for many that seems to mean a rest for footy betting until August although there is the small matter of the world cup to keep us interested this year.

But there is a way to continue to make profits from the beautiful game right through the year and you can do this using fully tested systems that incur a modest one off fee rather than have to sign up to expensive subscription services.

Even better the daily time involvement to follow the systems is minimal – around 5 minutes most days, perhaps 10 at busy weekends.

All this is possible using the systems developed by Chris Williams who I have been following for several years and who offers simple no nonsense products with video training and that do what they claim. – I interviewed him back in 2016 before the systems I am discussing here were launched but his approach remains the same. This extract from the full interview will offer an insight to the author:

“Q. For those readers who have not heard of you before, can you give a brief overview of who you are and what you do?

A: As anyone who has looked at my sales pages will appreciate, I am not someone that craves publicity. You won’t find any photos of me standing next to a big expensive car or in front of a mansion claiming that I’ve achieved a millionaire lifestyle from betting! I’m quite a private person so I’ll just say that I’m an ordinary 66-year-old man living a very ordinary life. My background is in science – I have a B.Sc. in physics & an M.Sc. in geophysics, and I’ve worked in both academic research as well as in scientific equipment sales.

Q: How did you get in to betting and what drew you to football betting? Was it a love of the game itself?

A: I first started betting when I was in my early-twenties. Like most people who get involved with betting, I was working in a job that didn’t pay me quite as much as I would have liked & I thought that betting would be an easy way to earn some extra money. How wrong I was!

In those days, there were no betting exchanges so I used the local bookies & concentrated on the horses & football. I got my tips from those premium-rate telephone tipsters that advertised every day in the Racing Post. Whilst there were good days (I well remember paying £50 for a particular tipster’s Special Treble Horse-Racing gamble & making a profit of over £2000), unfortunately there were far more bad days & I soon decided that gambling was a mug’s game.

It wasn’t until about 15 years ago that I took another serious look at betting. I’d read about the development of betting exchanges & quickly realised that being able to both back & lay opened up a huge range of profitable possibilities.

I’ve never been a big fan of any sport but my mathematical background made me start to investigate whether statistical analysis could be used with betting exchanges to get an ‘edge’ and make a profit.

Q: Do you have a favourite system or service out of all the ones you’ve released?

A: My favourite system always seems to be the latest one that I have released! I do tend to develop new systems even though there is nothing wrong with the existing ones. What I am trying to do is to end up with 3-4 systems that are not only very simple to implement but are consistently profitable over time with no long losing runs.

Q: Who would you say your products are suitable for? Can they be used by complete beginners or should buyers already have some betting knowledge to get the best out of them?

A: I try to make all of my products accessible to both beginners & more experienced bettors. Having said that, I would expect anyone buying any of my products to know how to use Betfair; know how to place back & lay bets; and be willing to use any product for a reasonable length of time before making a judgement as to whether it’s profitable for them.”

The last three systems Chris has released have all proved profitable and use freely available prediction websites to highlight the opportunities that are available. I have reviewed each of them and the details can be found here

Football Trading Secrets Method 9

Football Money Maker Method 1

Football Money Maker Method 2

These are all backing systems in the goals scored markets and the betting involved is low risk so you are looking at steady profit growth rather than spectacular wins (with the inevitable losses that follow!). FTS Method 9 has quadrupled the starting bank (20 points) in 15 months while FMM1 has seen a 146% growth in just 8 months. FMM2 has been a little slower but is still up 60% in 6 months of testing. The results are based on level stakes but I suspect there is scope for enhanced returns using multiples or progressive staking.

All involve pure back bets and selections can be made the day before matches if required. My results are based on Betfair prices but the markets used are available with bookmakers if preferred. They can be used on any league across the world where there is a betting market so there is no off season to interrupt your profit growth.

I would also mention that I tend to be very conservative in making the selections and as explained in the training the user can exercise a degree of personal judgement when applying the systems. An added bonus is that Chris will always help his clients if they need guidance.

So what are you waiting for? Take a look at the reviews and decide which system is the one for you to start with. At a cost of less than £40 each they will not break your bank and you can afford to practice implementing the theory before risking your cash. Very good value and a cornerstone for any betting portfolio.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Go USA In The Winter Olympics 

You can tell it’s a quiet night for football when our headline tip concerns some strange activities on snow and ice. However, it’s that time every four years when we get transfixed by men and women scrubbing the floor with a funny brush as a big stone heads towards a target and other big stones. For many the highlight of the Winter Olympics is not downhill skiing or ice hockey but the weird and wonderful “sport” of curling. From 4.30am tomorrow you can watch the mixed doubles round robin matches and surely that’s worth staying up late for or getting up early. My man on the inside (at the Racing Post) tells me UNITED STATES must be backed at 7/1 to win most medals in this year’s Winter Olympics but the best part for me is the curling.

It’s debatable whether darts is a sport or a pastime but sport is about exertion though others would disagree. There is a campaign to get darts introduced into the Olympics and it certainly requires great skill and concentration. The target for the triple 20 is tiny but the best darts players seem to get “three in the bed” at will. ONE HUNDRED AND EIIIIIGHTY! is a familiar sound when the darts is on and it is heard most often when Michael van Gerwen is at the ochre. One particular pundit calls the Dutch arrers professional the world’s greatest sportsman. That might be over egging his talent but MVG at 4/6 with Ladbrokes to win the Premier League which continues tonight is the bet of the day.

EQUUS SECRETUS Is The Horse To Back At 8/1

There’s £94,000 up for grabs in prize money over the seven races at the jumps meeting at Huntingdon which is a decent figure for a midweek fixture in February. Cheltenham is now the be all and end all and it’s less than five weeks before the meeting that matters most. The best horses are rarely raced against each other outside the four days of the Festival and that’s why few British horses were sent to Ireland for the Dublin Racing Festival. The richest race of the day is the Class 1 novices’ hurdle at Huntingdon (2.15pm). On ratings and form EQUUS SECRETUS is the horse to back at 8/1 with William Hill and then you can settle down to watch some curling in the middle of the night.

Another Winning System!

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Today, I’m going to look at another very simple system. We basically pick the best races on any card and use the OR and TS from the Racing Post as our selection criteria. It takes around 5 minutes every morning and can even be done the night before.

First up then, we need to find the races –

http://www.attheraces.com/racecards

We now need to head over to the Racing Post to look at the race above –

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/85/warwick/2018-01-25/691493

We need to look at the top three horses. These will automatically show from the highest OR to the lowest. So, in this case, we’re going to be looking at Eminent Poet, Crucial Role and Polydora. Now, we need to click on the little TS symbol at the top. This will then sort the horses in order of their Top Speed rating.

As you can see Crucial Role is at the top. This is now our selection. So to re-cap –

  1. Find the best race on the card
  2. Look at the top three OR rated runners
  3. Look for the top three highest TS runners and if you find a match, then you have a bet.

I have gone through the other cards, today and we have the following –

14:35 Warwick – Crucial Role

14:45 Southwell – Maifalki

Kelso – No qualifier

19:00 Chelmsford – Reckless Endeavour

Have a go yourself and you can add even more criteria for extra accuracy.

I’ll be back next week with more systems and daily analysis.

 

There are two selections for the Turbo Winning System –

13:25 Warwick – Sensulano

19:30 Chelmsford – Mambo Dancer 

Have You Got What It Takes?

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One of the hardest things to deal with in betting is the losing streaks. Sometimes, they seem to go on forever and we quit before the winning streak occurs. For those of us that continue, the winners start to come, our mood changes for the better and the money starts to come in. However, are we in profit?

I’ve covered this before about keeping records and it’s one of the most important things we can do.

When I started out betting on the horses I used to just use the Postdata section of the Racing Post. When it won I was a genius and when it lost it was all the fault of “that bloody newspaper!”

When I eventually went pro the hardest thing to do was to accept that I would have losing streaks. It all boiled down to the fact that when I was losing it wasn’t my fault and when I was winning, I was a genius. Of course, this wasn’t the case. I needed to understand that my betting was always going to have these downward trends.

You have to realise that there are so many variables when selecting your winners that when you get it right those variables have been relevant but when it loses they haven’t. To make things harder no one will ever know which variables are relevant before the race!

However, by keeping records we can start to go through some of the variables and look at anything that is familiar. You need to look at the odds. Are our winners coming from the top end of the market? Are the losers occurring because of a change in the going after we’ve done our analysis?

By looking through some of these variables, we can hopefully start to see where we might be going wrong and what we can do to change the way we select our horses.

Next week, I will be looking at giving you a free calculator that allows you to analyse your data and look at familiar patterns that will enhance your betting and show you how to focus on more winners.

In the meantime, take a look at this article I wrote about dealing with losing streak and a nifty calculator that allows you to work out the best bank to deal with losing streaks –

https://members.betfanplus.com/blog/betting-knowledge/guaranteed-bank-protection/

 

Finding Value In Handicap Races 

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One of the first things to look into is, is the favourite worth opposing?

I know a few professionals that focus on the favourites or the top end of the market and do well but they need a massive turn over for a shorter return on investment. The shorter your prices the bigger your strike rate needs to be and the smaller your ROI will be.

However, by moving away from the top end of the market your strike rate will be lower but you can get a much bigger ROI. This is where I focus my attention. I look for races that look to have a weak favourite and then work my way through the card until I find something that looks to have a chance.

Once I have a shortlist of contenders that look likely to have a chance of beating the favourite, I go about pricing up the race. If my selections are bigger in the market than the price I have on my tissue then I have a value selection. Once I’ve also pulled out the selections from my database that runs all of my systems and there is one that corresponds with my original selections then I know I have a strong selection that also offers value.

So that’s how I do it but what can you do to copy my method?

Follow a few simple steps and if you have time go through all my previous articles and learn as much as you can but in the meantime let’s outline these few simple steps.

1. Pick out all the handicap races from a day’s racing.

2. Look at the favourites and go through the form. Do they really look to be a justified favourite? It might be that the horse is from a big yard and the market has over-hyped it?

3. Once you have found a favourite with holes in it and looks to be worth opposing, then start to work your way through the betting forecast and find a horse that looks like it has either a good chance of beating the favourite or at least placing at a decent price.

4. Go through as many betting forecasts as you can from the Sporting Life, Racing Post through to Timeform and Betfair. Take an average price (this is a very simple way of gauging the horse’s price) from these forecasts and if from your selections from step 3 you can get a bigger price then you are on the right road to finding value bets.

5. Paper trade this angle and keep a record of the bets that you find and see how you do. If you’re making a loss and the favourites are winning then go back through the method until you’ve grasped the right angle.

Good luck!

Eddie

Looking At The Price

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You’ll often hear me talk about my “tissue” prices. These are basically the prices I have worked out for each horse. When building my tissue I try to get the price as close as I can to what the SP will be. It’s no easy feat but the way I started out was to cheat! The night before racing it’s possible to look at other expert’s tissues. Either by subscribing to the Racing Post or free through some of the other racing sites, such as Sporting Life or At The Races. I used to use as many as I could. Racing Post, Sporting life, At The Races and Timeform. By looking at the average prices given by each of the tissues or better known as betting forecasts, you can get a rough idea of what prices will be live when it comes to the bookies putting theirs up.

The night before racing, it’s possible to look at other expert’s tissues. Either by subscribing to the Racing Post or free through some of the other racing sites, such as Sporting Life or At The Races. I used to use as many as I could. Racing Post, Sporting life, At The Races and Timeform. By looking at the average prices given by each of the tissues or better known as betting forecasts, you can get a rough idea of what prices will be live when it comes to the bookies putting theirs up.

So we need to carry on with form study, system selections etc, whatever way you go about finding your selections but then go to these various sites and look for the average of all the prices. A lot of races now, especially the handicaps are available to bet the night before, which is good because the longer a market is open, the more accurate it can become. I would find my selection, its average price and when looking at the market, basically look for anything that’s bigger.

Especially on favourites, you’ll often find the bookie goes a little bigger than the tissue price. Remember, he’s betting on every race throughout the day so to attract as much money as he can he needs to be offering value. In the long run, they’ll make money based on their turnover. We, however, don’t have to bet in every race so when we can get a bigger price than the SP then we’re going to turn a profit ourselves.

Give it a go. You’ll be surprised at the small increase in profit you could be making by thinking a little more about the price ;)

I’ll be back next week with more tips and tricks. Until then happy punting and good luck.

Eddie

Finding That Elusive Value!

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When we strike a bet, the bookie is effectively selling us the probability of a horse winning. When you buy something, for example, a car, you want to know that you’re getting value for money. One garage has your dream car for £15,000 but down the road, another garage has the exact same car for £13,500. You would obviously buy it from the second garage. It is exactly the same when striking a bet.

We need to get the best odds as possible as we would get the best price possible for the car!

Learning about creating something called a tissue can be a very difficult thing to do but these tissues are a way of determining if we are getting value about our bets. When you look at the Racing Post in the morning and you see the SP forecast betting at the bottom of the card, this is basically an experts “tissue” and his opinion on how the market should be priced up.

Understanding a tissue though requires an understanding of how odds translate into percentages. It’s not as difficult as you may think and we’ll run through an example now.

Let’s take the price of 6/4.

This equates to a 40% chance of the horse winning the race.

We calculate the 40% by always dividing the left number of the fraction by the right-hand number and then adding one. So 6 divided by 4 = 1.50 plus 1 = 2.5. We then divide 100 by the 2.50 and this gives us 40%.

So 6 divided by 4 = 1.50 plus 1 = 2.5. We then divide 100 by the 2.50 and this gives us 40%.

We then divide 100 by the 2.50 and this gives us 40%.

A very simple way to construct your own tissue is to trust the experts and do an average of the betting forecasts SP’s. You can go over to the Racing Post, At The Races, Sporting Life and Timeform and you’ll be able to find the forecasts. What you need to do is to find the average of each forecast about the horse you fancy. For example, you fancy the favourite in a race and four forecasts from the above websites have odds as follows:

13/8, 6/4, 6/4 and 11/8. We now convert these into percentages like in the example above and you’ll see the figures below:

13/8 = 38.10%

6/4 = 40%

6/4 = 40%

11/8 = 42.11%

We add them all together and then divide them by 4 to find our average which would be 40.05%. We can now be fairly sure that our horse has a 40% chance of winning its race.

Back to our understanding of striking a bet, we now have 40% about our selection so of course, we want to find some value. We go over to the markets and find a bookie offering 13/8 about our fancy. You can now strike your bet as you’ve just “bought” your horses chance of winning the race for less than you have worked out it should be!!

We believe it’s 40% but we can strike our bet at 38.10%. That’s finding value. If we can find a horse that we believe has a higher chance of winning than the market suggests then we are betting to value and will, therefore, make a profit on the long run.

Laying The Dogs! By Rick Elliott

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You know it’s a light day for sport when the main story in the daily preview is about greyhound racing. This is an acquired taste and a sports betting niche but there’s live coverage every night on Racing Post Greyhound TV. Sky covers some of the major races and meetings so the dogs are well covered on television and the Racing Post provides form and results. Laying greyhounds is not everybody’s cup of tea but it can be profitable.

If you glance at the Greyhounds section towards the back of the Racing Post you will see a multitude of meetings and there are 11 covered today. You have to be selective when adopting a strategy so it’s best to focus on the RPGTV meetings. You can eliminate the Open races and any A1 and A10 graded races. Traps 1 and 6 should be disregarded for the purpose of this approach to laying greyhounds.

The next step is to identify the trap that has provided the fewest winners since the start of the year. There are websites that record results and statistics and show trap records. The trap with the lowest winning percentage (disregarding 1 and 6) is the next key element of this system.  You must avoid any dog that has finished first and second on the last start and any dog that has recorded the fastest time over the distance.

You should now have a list of races and the trap number to lay. The best staking approach is to lay for £10 which means that is the most you can lose in one race. Stakes can be compounded or level and that stake unit is dependent on your budget and the amount you are comfortable risking but remember there could be several qualifying races. Do not lay any dog at 6/1 or bigger in the betting forecast. Any race with a vacant trap should be ignored.

RPGTV are covering Peterborough and Central Park (Sittingbourne) tonight.

The least winning trap other than 1 or 6 is trap 5 at Peterborough and trap 3 at Central Park.  There are seven graded races (indicated by an A prefix) at Peterborough that qualify. The following races meet all the criteria that make the bet a lay: 725, 842 and 915.  At Central Park the following races from seven graded contests qualify: 802, 818 and 850. So, there are six dogs to lay on RPGTV tonight.