With just over a week to go to the Breeders Cup I thought I’d put out the first part of my preview so you can get to work as soon as the Pre-entries are known on October 22 and final entries will be taken and post positions drawn on Monday October 27.
This year meeting takes place at Santa Anita Park:
The Main Dirt Track: Is a One Mile, oval, a new surface was put down there in July called El Segundo Sand.
The inner Turf track is about Seven Furlongs. Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 feet.
The meeting will have a total of 13 races spread over two days of racing. Friday October 31st will have four races featuring the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Saturday November 1st will have nine races the highlight being by the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
General notes to consider before having a bet:
Euro raiders must have won on a left-handed track.
Bet only horses that have won on the race surface either Dirt or Turf, ignore synthetic form.
Local horses have an advantage especially proven course & distance winners.
Running style: SA has a slow & short stretch, suits runners who race close to pace, leaders tire & if you are too far back there is no time to make up the ground. Tight turns suits nimble runners.
John Gosden knows how to win at SA
I like horses that have recorded a big Beyer figure but not so much last time out as it may have taken too much out itself.
Draw bias: Mile races definitely don’t want to be drawn wide, generally a middle stall is good
I prefer a local jockey, seen some poor rides from the likes of Spencer & Buick there
The races, with distance, age/sex & notes on what I look for:
Juvenile Turf, 1 Mile (Turf), 2 Year Olds, Lasix is back on this year. Euros have won this 71%.
Dirt mile, 1 Mile, 3 Year Olds & Up, very short run to 1st turn , no favourite has won, returning from races further than a mile especially 9fs is a positive, lay-off not a problem, register at least 1 Beyer 100+
Juvenile Fillies Turf, 1 mile (Turf), 2 Year Old Fillies, Stamina over speed, proven at distance, not front runner, must be in form.
Distaff, 1 1/8 miles, 3 Year Olds & Up Fillies & Mares, West coast front runner, must have ran well in most recent prep race.
Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16 miles, 2 Year Old Fillies, Stamina proven at distance & on dirt, west coast advantage, fav’s do well.
Filly & Mare Turf, 1 1/4 miles (Turf), 3 Year Olds & Up Fillies & Mares, Previous runners in FM Turf have a good record running in the race again, proven they can stay, no horse has wired, Euros do well.
Filly & Mare Sprint, 7 furlongs, 3 Year Olds & Up Fillies & Mares, Run over 7f so not really a sprint, need form over this specialist distance, Grade 1 winner during season & Beyer 100+
The Turf Sprint, 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf), 3 Year Olds & Up, as it’s over 6.5 furlongs it’s not really a sprint, experience over unique downhill course is a big advantage, only other track similar is Woodbine.
The Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles, 2 Year Old Colts & Geldings, Local runners have advantage, good recent run a must especially if recording it’s highest ever Beyer, hard to win as a front-runner, need stamina.
The Turf, 1 1/2 miles (Turf), 3 Year Olds & Up, good race for euros although most ARC runners tend to bounce, this course might suit a front runner, low draw preferable, tough to win a Grade 1 race at 1m4F without a recent prep, should have won previously at the trip.
The Sprint, 6 Furlongs, 3 Year Olds & Up, SoCal homers dominate, long-layoff 35 days + not a disadvantage as long as they are working fast, not a good race for fav’s, MUST have won over 6F during the season, Beyer 105+
The Mile, 1 mile (Turf), 3 Year Olds & Up, Repeaters, previous winners, have a great record, as have the euros, hard to lead all the way suits a runner up close to pace, must have ran well in a Group or Grade 1 last time out, must have won a mile race before.
The Classic, 1 1/4 miles, 3 Year Olds & Up, Local runners have advantage, must have ran well in a Group or Grade 1 last time out, must have proven form at the distance, can win off a lay-off, preferred age 3 or 4, don’t want a runner to have posted their best Beyer last time out but needs to have achieved 105+
Next week I’ll give details of the wagering menus, workout figures from Clocker’s Corner on the track & further betting advice although I’ll only pass my actual bets onto subscribers I hope I have given you enough information to have a profitable meeting.
This week’s new additions to the hotlist: CLASSIC COLLECTION, SHARED EQUITY & ITS GONNA BE ME
It’s a hard act to follow last week’s 10/1 winner Lady Yates, might not be same price but THUNDER PASS, Wolverhampton 4:50, is improving with being stepped up in trip & could be well ahead of his mark, currently 13/8, hopefully get wee bit bigger, always compare best prices, I use OddsChecker.com & make sure the bookie is offering best odds guaranteed.
Back next Tuesday.
The Shrewd Tipster