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Rick’s Sports Betting: Returning Heroes At The Cheltenham Festival – By Rick Elliott

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This week’s article is relevant for the Cheltenham Festival next week but is also a good guide to a trend that can occur in subsequent years. It’s a discussion about horses winning races at the festival more than once.

There have been multiple winners of each of the four main championships races at the Cheltenham Festival this century. The atmosphere and the pace of the races is unique and some horses can’t cope. Other runners relish the experience and run well over a number of years and a special few win one the major races more than once. That information is valuable for next week’s meeting and in the future. Buveur D’Air is an odds-on favourite to win the Champion Hurdle for the second successive year.

Repeat winners happen because of the special demands of the track and the occasion. Every horse is trying and running on its merits so the best horse wins most of the big races. Course and distance form is carried forward from year to year which means there are instances of horses winning the same race more than once. Inexperienced horses or runners who have not contested a festival race before are at a disadvantage. Those that have seen it before excel from year to year.

Trainers and jockeys also contribute to multiple winners because they know what it takes to prepare and ride horses at the festival. Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins are the perennial leading trainer and jockey and that gives their horses an edge. Winning a race at the Cheltenham is a huge achievement because the racing is the most competitive of the season. If a horse has won one before the chances of it happening again are reduced. This trend is particularly common in the four biggest races.

Here is the list of horses that have won one of the four most prestigious races more than once since 2000:

Champion Hurdle

Hardy Eustace 2004 and 2005

Hurricane Fly 2011 and 2013

Last year’s winner: Buveur D’Air

Buveur D’Air has the best chance of winning a championship race in successive years. The horse was a comfortable winner of the Champion Hurdle last season and no genuine rival has emerged over the last 12 months. Faugheen is not the force of old and My Tent Or Yours has finished second in the race three times. Buveur D’Air has by far the best form in the race and can win the Champion Hurdle again.

Champion Chase

Moscow Flyer 2003 and 2005

Master Minded 2008 and 2009

Sprinter Sacre 2013 and 2016

Last year’s winner: Special Tiara

This is the only other race out of the four that can produce the same winner as last year. The race fell into Special Tiara’s lap because Douvan ran poorly and finished lame. Altior assumes the role of Douvan this year but there are no injury doubts about the horse. Altior is just about the best horse in training and Special Tiara is well behind the form on ratings so can’t win the Champion Chase again.

Stayers’ Hurdle  

Baracouda 2002 and 2003

Inglis Drever 2005, 2007 and 2008

Big Buck’s 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Last year’s winner: Nichols Canyon

Since 2000 nine of the winners of the stayers’ hurdle were multiple winners but sadly that is impossible this year. Nichols Canyon won the race in 2017 but was fatally injured in a race in Ireland. It’s ironic that the race that has produced most returning winners won’t be won by last year’s champion.

Gold Cup  

 

Best Mate 2002, 2003 and 2004

Kauto Star 2007 and 2008

Last year’s winner: Sizing John

Sizing John still has other chances but the horse won’t be winning the Gold Cup this year. Due to a pelvis injury Sizing John has been withdrawn which means the three most recent winners of the race will not be taking part. Another year will have to pass before the race produces a multiple winner.

So, only two of the four winners of the main features of the day from last year can win the same race in 2018 and Buveur D’Air has by far the best chance.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Our Duke Can Win The Cheltenham Gold Cup

When Best Mate won three Cheltenham Gold Cups in a row from 2002 to 2004 the story was just as much about the trainer and her partner as the horse. Henrietta Knight and Terry Biddlecombe were an unlikely pairing but the truth is they managed to get Best Mate to Cheltenham on Gold Cup day in his prime for three successive years. Sizing John won’t be winning another Gold Cup this year because the horse has been ruled out through injury. Jockey Robbie Power now rides Out Duke.

The jockey’s new mount will be a massive factor at Cheltenham next Friday if jumping well. Our Duke made the Irish Grand National a procession last year and was clearly a Grade 1 horse running in a handicap. The horse drifted in the betting for the Gold Cup after a desperate seasonal reappearance but has since run at a high level and the Gold Cup is a genuine target. The horse is trained by Jessica Harrington who having ruled out Sizing John can win the race again and OUR DUKE is 9/1 with Betfair to prevail in the most prestigious steeplechase in the sport.

There are no major football matches in Britain tonight but plenty of betting action in other sports. England play New Zealand in the fifth match and decider of their One Day International series in Christchurch. England were embarrassing in the Tests against Australia but the limited over’s side is one of the best in the world. The home side are no mugs in while ball cricket but ENGLAND have the better players in the format so are the bet in this match at 8/11 with William Hill.

TEACHER’S PET Is A Big Player On Ratings

It’s a long shot about getting any exciting racing on the Friday before the Cheltenham Festival. There are three moderate jumps meetings in Britain but £154,000 in prize money up for grabs at Leopardstown in Ireland and the same amount on offer at the All-Weather fixture at Dundalk. The handicap chase at Leopardstown at 3.30pm has almost 30 grand on the table for the winner. TEACHER’S PET is a big player on ratings and the horse is 10/1 with Paddy Power.

Altior And Native Rivers Must Perform In The Dress Rehearsals – By Ian Hudson

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The Cheltenham Festival begins four weeks on Tuesday so this weekend is the last opportunity for potential runners to race and then have enough time to recover. The best horse in action at Newbury on Saturday is Altior but his trainer believes the horse is more vulnerable than at any other time in his career. Altior must win the Exchange Chase to justify favouritism for the Queen Mother Chase. Native River is auditioning for another crack at the Gold Cup on the same card.

The Betfair Hurdle is one of the most competitive handicaps over the smaller obstacles and often attracts a big field. There should be at least 16 runners this year which means bookmakers will settle each way bets at one quarter the odds for the first four places. The other races previewed won’t have the required eight runners for three payout places and they are more about quality than quantity.

Altior is trained by Nicky Henderson who had the brilliant Sprinter Sacre winning races at the highest level for five years. The trainer believes Altior could be as good and is potentially his stable star and that’s saying something when it houses the current favourite for the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup. Altior has won different races at the last two Cheltenham Festivals so is looking for a rare treble in March.

Politologue has the best chase form over two miles in Britain this season. The horse won the Tingle Creek Chase in impressive style and that is a recognised trial for the two mile championship. Altior can put down a marker for that race by beating Politologue but that will be a tough ask after a ten month absence from the track. On past form and ratings Altior is the horse to beat in the Exchange Chase and then the big one at Cheltenham next month.

Native River won two major handicaps last season with something in hand and that made the horse a Gold Cup contender. Native River ran a fine race to be third to Sizing John but that horse has underperformed this season. The Gold Cup is a demanding race that takes a great deal out of runners and back-to-back wins are rare. Best Mate won the race three times in a row at the start of the century but was an exceptional animal and Sizing John is not in that class.

The Denman Chase is Native River’s prep for the Gold Cup and he must win comfortably in an average race to have any chance at Cheltenham. Newbury is a flat track and the race is over less than three miles. Native River won the old Hennessy Gold Cup on the course last season so relishes the conditions and can jump the fences. A clear cut win is required and anything less will take Native River out of the Gold Cup equation and the other four runners are not proven at the highest level.

Lalor was one of the best bumper horses last season and is a novice running in a big field handicap. The Betfair Hurdle could be too much for the horse and Jenkins has better credentials. Jenkins is trained by Henderson and he has won five Betfair Hurdles in its different guises. If he wins another and Altior prevails it will have been a good day at the office.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Phil “The Power” Taylor from Stoke has been champion of the world 16 times and is the best darts player in the history of the sport….or pub game. It’s debatable whether throwing three small objects in the general direction of the board could be called a sport but I’m sure some oddball is trying to get darts to become an Olympic sport. Michael van Gerwen has taken getting three in the bed (three triple 20s) to a new level and he awaits Taylor in the final of the PDC World Championship if both players win their semi-finals matches today. The double on Taylor to beat Jamie Lewis and MVG to beat Rob Cross pays 2/5. The Dutchman is odds-on to win the tournament and prevent Taylor ending his career with a 17th world title.

There are six fixtures in the Premier League today starting at the traditional time of 3pm. In the olden days every fixture began at this time and it’s a relatively recent concept of matches being played at times that suit the TV companies. Television money finances the sport and he who pays the piper calls the tune. In modern language that translates to Sky and BT pump a fortune into football so they can dictate when matches start and that is when they can attract most viewers. The live televised match today brings together Manchester United and Southampton at Old Trafford. The 1976 FA Cup Final involved these teams and racehorse trainer Mick Channon played for the Saints. UNITED can win this time at 4/11 with Ladbrokes.

There have been some strange results at Leopardstown this week which have caused shake-ups in several betting markets for races at the Cheltenham Festival in March. Sizing John ran too badly to be true in the staying chase and the main beneficiary is Might Bite in the Gold Cup. The impressive King George winner at Kempton on Boxing Day is now the favourite to win the most prestigious chase of the season. The horse is a best priced 4/1 with William Hill to win the Gold Cup. The racing today is more about competitive handicaps than graded contests. The feature race is at Newbury where the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle provides the quality. Taylor first won the world darts championship WAY BACK THEN so a horse of that name would be an appropriate winner of this Newbury contest at 9/2 with Coral.

Cue Card Can Bring The House Down At Haydock – By Rick Elliott

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Cue Card is now just about the most popular jumps horse in training in Britain and the horse can bring the house down by winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock for the fourth time. The new kid on the block is Bristol De Mai who has winning form on the course but Cue Card has the experience top prevail in the biggest race of the season to date which sadly Sizing John will miss.

The statistics indicate that a chaser eliminates jumping errors with experience and competing in more races. Cue Card has now fallen in three of his last 10 chases but only failed to complete once in 21 previous starts over fences.  He unseated the jockey in his second chase so the horse is making more mistakes during the latter stages of his chasing career. The Haydock race goers will be holding their breath during the Betfair Chase but Cue Card is ideally suited to the race.

Chasers in Cue Card’s ratings brackets have usually read the book, worn the t-shirt, etc. There are extenuating circumstances for the falls and a low sun contributed to the latest mishap at Wetherby. Cue Card has fallen in the last two Cheltenham Gold Cups but that is the toughest race of the season that places huge demands on horses. They say practice makes perfect but Cue Card is making more mistakes on getting older and not learning from them.

Cue Card won’t have things all his own way at Haydock because Bristol De Mai is proven on the track and won the race at Wetherby in which Cue Card fell. However, the job has been made easier by the absence of Sizing John who is not being risked on what could be bottomless ground at Haydock. Connections were aiming the horse at the £1million bonus for winning the three biggest conditions chases in Britain but that plan has been put on hold for this year at least.

The thinking behind not running Sizing John was that his main rivals are race fit and the horse is more likely to be found out on heavy ground. The north-west of England has seen plenty of rain. I know that because the other night I left the house without a brolly or raincoat and two minutes down the road a monsoon occurred out of nowhere. Id just reached that point on my journey where turning back would have got me just as wet as plodding on. Sizing John won’t be making the journey from Ireland.

The Betfair Chase has been devalued because Sizing John won the Gold Cup, Irish Gold Cup and Punchestown Festival equivalent last season. The horse will now run at Punchestown in a prep-race for the King George at Kempton. The winner of the Betfair Chase will probably be in opposition to keep the dream of winning the lucrative bonus alive. That horse should be Cue Card.

Kauto Star won the Haydock race four times and Silviniaco Conti prevailed in 2012 and 2014 so there is a history of multiple winners. In fact six of the last 10 winners had already won the race so history will repeat itself if Cue Card does the business again in the third most prestigious chase of the season after the Gold Cup and King George. Paul Nicholls has won six of the 12 renewals but doesn’t have a runner this year. None of the six declared jockeys have won a Betfair Chase.

Outlander represents Gordon Elliott and looks vulnerable on ratings but the trainer is a master so nothing would surprise you about his horses. Shantou Flyer and Traffic Fluide have a fair bit to find on ratings. Bristol De Mai is something of the young pretender but the horse has only won one Grade 1 race while Cue Card has won nine of them. Age and that tendency to make jumping errors counts against Cue Card but the horse’s class can count so Cue Card can win his 10th Grade 1 in the 2017 Betfair Chase at Haydock.

Samcro Could Be A Jumps Superstar – By Rick Elliott

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A Thursday in October would not usually be a port of call to find clues for the Cheltenham Festival but Punchestown stages a jumps meeting today that could provide pointers to the races that matter most next March. Samcro fetched the biggest amount in the sales ring at of the Grand National meeting in 2016. The horse has shown vast potential in bumpers and runs over hurdles for the first time today. SAMCRO is the standout bet at Punchestown (2.05pm) so must be the banker in your accas at 1/4 with Ladbrokes.

Death Duty disappointed as favourite over hurdles at Cheltenham this year and has now been sent novice chasing. The horse is odds-on to win in that sphere in Ireland today. However, on ratings Woodland Opera is not too far behind the favourite and looks the value option. He has more experience over fences so WOODLAND OPERA is the horse to back at 11/4 with William Hill. The Irish Daily Star Chase already has a championship feel to it and MINELLA ROCCO can confirm Cheltenham Gold Cup form (2nd to Sizing John) by winning at 15/8 with bet365.

It must be a culture shock for Arsene Wenger to be working on a Thursday night. It’s always been midweek Champions League football for the Arsenal manager but now he is enjoying the delights of the Europa League. Arsenal are odds-on to beat Red Star Belgrade on the road but the leaders of the league in Serbia can avoid defeat and the DRAW looks the best bet which can be backed at 27/10 with Coral.

Ronald Koeman is the big favourite to be the next manager in the Premier League to lose his job. His Everton side are low in confidence so a tricky home tie has come at the wrong time. Everton have conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches and Lyon‘s defence is not the safest. Predicting the match result looks difficult so the best option is to back both teams to score at 8/13 with William Hill. A loss but could mean curtains for Koeman but Everton can avoid defeat at Goodison Park tonight.

 Is There Any Value In Ante Post Betting? By High Roller Racing

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In October 2016 Sizing John was about 100/1 to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup the following March. It was any offer One For Arthur to win the Grand National and shrewd punters would have made a killing. However, overall ante post betting is fraught with danger and often goes wrong.

During the 2015-16 jumps season Rick Elliott, a colleague at Betfan, built up an ante post portfolio for the Cheltenham Festival. Of the 10 horses he backed only 3 actually ran in their specified races and throughout the season everything that could go wrong did. Once bitten twice shy, Rick says.

The downside of backing horses in ante post markets is that if the horse does not run it’s a losing bet. From the previous September you can bet on the Classics but eight months is a lifetime for a young horse. In 2013 Rule The World won the Derby but did not appear on the track as a two-year-old.

Betting on future Flat races is harder than over jumps. There could be 30 juveniles at Aidan O’Brien’s stable so anticipating the best one is a big ask. Some could be slow, have a poor attitude or get injured. Horses develop from two to three and the winter favourite for the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas does not always run.

National Hunt racing is different in that horses run for many years. It doesn’t take Einstein to work out that Sizing John will be targeted at the Gold Cup. Assuming no injuries the horse will be back at Cheltenham next March.

When backing a horse well ahead of a race the key questions are will you get a run and will the horse start at a shorter price? The incentive to bet ante post is better odds than on the day. However, that is not always the case. In fact horses often drift in the betting during the season.

There are some horses that have more than one target and horses under the same ownership are campaigned as a team. Rich Ricci always has a strong team at the Festival with multiple entries and often makes late calls. Willie Mullins gives nothing away so why back one of his ante post?

Vroum Vroum Mag is a great horse but has about six potential Festival targets over hurdles and fences. The horse is 40/1 to win the Gold Cup and 10/1 to win the Mares Hurdle. So the horse could run in the Blue Riband chase or a hurdle for females. The odds are attractive but one bet is already a loser.

Cheltenham is a huge meeting for the betting industry and it’s highly competitive. Free bets are used as marketing tools but the non-runner/no bet concession is good for business. You have got a chance with ante post betting when you get your money back for a non-runner. However, you have to wait until early March when that rule is first applied.

Forty eight hour declarations will apply across the board at the Cheltenham Festival in 2018. Bookmakers who still keep stakes on non-runners until the final declarations will have to return betting funds if a horse is withdrawn after being declared. That gives punters a chance and means taking an early price results in the best odds.

There is a distinction between ante post betting and morning or board price betting. You take your chances with the former but several leading bookmakers now offer Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG). High Roller Racing suggests you bet with bookmakers who pay out on non-runners some time before the relevant race and offer BOG.

For the best bets each day from High Roller Racing CLICK HERE!

CLICK HERE TO JOIN HIGH ROLLERS

Coneygree Can Win The Kerry National at Listowel – By Rick Elliott

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The variety of racing in Ireland is highlighted by the Listowel Harvest Festival which starts on the second day of Champions Weekend and takes place over seven days.  The meeting combines Flat and jumps races and the highlight is the Kerry National on Wednesday. Coneygree could run in the race so the locals could see a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner running in their own back yard. The winner of the Blue Riband of chasing in 2015 can be backed at 7/2 to win Listowel’s biggest race.

You can get all the best bets for the Kerry National and the seven day meeting with our Listowel Harvest Festival Special: CLICK HERE!

Coneygree has only run three times since winning the Gold Cup. A facile win at Sandown in a three-runner race was followed by a second place to Cue Card in the Betfair Chase last year. The margin of defeat was 15 lengths but Coneygree led four fences from home and lack of fitness told in the straight. The horse was then beaten by Djakadam and Sizing John in the Punchestown Gold Cup in somewhere near a career best run.

It’s all happening in Ireland over the next week with great horses running in top class contests on the Flat and over jumps. Churchill, Winter and Coneygree are champions so its appropriate the fun begins with Irish Champions Weekend. You can have all the bases covered in Ireland with the two Irish Specials.

Ante Post Thoughts For The 2018 Cheltenham Festival Part 2- By Rick Elliott

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PART 2 – Stayers’ Hurdle 2018 & Gold Cup 2018

Following on from Friday where we looked at the Champion Hurdle and the Champion Chase here are some observations and pointers for next years final two feature contests of the festival.

Stayers’ Hurdle 2018

It’s quite feasible that two of the first three in this year’s Stayers’ Hurdle will fight out the finish in 2018. Lil Rockfeller produce a career best performance to finish second but Unowhatimeanharry was the better horse over the course of the season. He won the major trials and before the festival was the best staying hurdler in Britain and Ireland. Unwhatimeanharry looks like being trained for the race again and could improve on third pace and even win this time.

Nichols Canyon was recording his eighth Grade 1 success when an impressive winner of the championship race for long distance hurdlers. The horse is aged only seven and has now proven his stamina for the three mile trip. Nichols Canyon is the best stayer around now after Cheltenham and can improve over the distance with more physical maturity and strength.

Gold Cup 2018

Sizing John has the youth to win again next year but it’s a tough ask to be in peak shape on that specific day nest March. Coneygree won the race as a novice in 2015 and can still be a factor but Djakadam has not delivered after three chances and now could be more of a Grand National horse. Native River could mature into a champion but was soundly beaten by Sizing John this time. Might Bite is a potential winner of the next Gold Cup but has too may quirks to trust.

By a process of elimination that leaves Thistlecrack who produced excellent form in the King George in the context of the Gold Cup. The horse was by some distance the best staying hurdler of last season and translated that ability to fences. Thistlecrack missed this year’s Gold Cup due to injury but had run a great prep race on Trials Day when just edged out by many Clouds. Thistlecarck barring more injury is the horse to monitor up until next year’s Cheltenham Festival where the Gold Cup could be his.

If you miss part 1 on Friday you can view it at the link below…

PART 1 – Champion Hurdle 2018 & Champion Chase 2018

Ante Post Thoughts For The 2018 Cheltenham Festival – By Rick Elliott

The Colonel

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Sizing John’s 7/1 victory in The Festival’s showpiece race, the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup last week, was a first in the championship contest for trainer Jessica Harrington, jockey Robert Power and owners Ann and Alan Potts.

Sizing John, a seven-year-old by the British sire Midnight Legend, was Harrington’s first-ever runner in the race. It was her second winner of the week – she also took the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle with Supasundae – and a 10th Festival success in total. She is the winning-most female trainer in Festival history.

Sizing John beat second-placed Minella Rocco by two and three-quarter lengths.

Harrington said: “I can’t believe it. He was absolutely amazing. His jumping, the way he travelled. He was absolutely fantastic. It’s unreal! It’s thanks to Robert – he’s the one who said at Christmas, ‘he will stay’.”

“Sizing John has gone from two miles at Christmas to winning over three miles and two furlongs here. He jumped like a buck and it is his jumping that has got him there the whole way. He was amazing.”

“It is a first runner in the race for me. I have never had any stayers before this. A big thank you to everyone at home. It is a big team and everyone has been fantastic.”

Alan Potts, who moved Sizing John from Henry de Bromhead’s yard to Harrington in the autumn, said: “It’s the first horse we have ever run in the Gold Cup, and only a couple of weeks after we won the Irish Gold Cup [with Sizing John at Leopardstown in February]. Pretty good!”

“It has always been our dream to win this, ever since we got into this game about 12 years ago. I invest heavily so that we can hopefully pick the best horses, and when you win a race like this, this is unreal.”

Postponed is the bet in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan on Saturday.

Back next Thursday

Kevan Minter