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Can Rose Thwart McIlroy’s Career Grand Slam Dream? – By Ian Hudson

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Rory McIlroy could be embarking on the biggest week of his career because if he wins the US Masters he will complete the career Grand Slam. Only five players in the history of the sport have won all four majors at least once and McIlroy is playing some of his best golf. However, his quest to make golfing history could be thwarted by a Ryder Cup colleague because Justin Rose has all the tools to win the first major championship of the year at Augusta National in Georgia.    

The Masters Tournament is the only major that is played on the same course each year. The other majors rotate around a number of courses which means any course will only stage a major every five years at least. St Andrews is the host course for the Open most often and there are eight other tracks on the rota. The US Open and USPGA Championship are taken to more courses which means the Masters is unique because it returns to Augusta every April. 

The winner of the Masters receives a handsome trophy but more importantly the famous green jacket that is presented to him by the previous year’s winner. Patrick Reed will be handing over the garment on Sunday evening and there is a good chance the recipient will be from the UK and Ireland. The Masters is an invitational event with qualifying criteria for the highest players in the world rankings. There is a small field which includes former winners who are ceremonial players. 

Augusta National has evolved over the years and there are regular tweaks to present a slightly different challenge each spring. Since Tiger Woods starting winning the Masters fairways have been narrowed, some rough introduced and tees moved back. The four par 5s still provide the best birdie opportunities so the 13th and 15th holes can be pivotal in the context of the final outcome. The other holes are tough which means picking up shots on the long holes is key. 

The course’s great defence is its lightening-fast, undulating greens which provide a severe test of nerve and putting. With only slight rough the longer hitters have a definite advantage especially if they are high ball hitters who can achieve softer landings on the greens that the low ball strikers. The ultimate key to Augusta is to keep out of trouble. It is possible on this demanding course to run up big numbers. One false shot can be compounded by further mistakes leading to double bogey or worse. Experience is important but debutants can do well with a hot putter.    

The average winning score over the last 10 years is 12 under and in that spell there have been four Playoffs. Only Zach Johnson has won with an over par score this century (1 over in 2007) and the biggest winning margin since 2009 was four strokes (Jordan Spieth in 2015). Since 2000 11 winners were US born so eight champions were from overseas. Rose and Spieth have both been runners up or tied second twice since 2014. Bubba Watson is the most recent multiple winner (2012 and 2014). Tiger Woods won the fourth and last green jacket in 2005 and Phil Mickelson has won three, between 2004 and 2010. 

Rose won the US Open in 2013 which is his only major title to date. He is comfortable on and off the course and has a game suited to Augusta. Rose also has the temperament to handle the extreme pressure of contending in a major over the back nine in the final round. The Masters is now the title McIlroy craves above all others because completing the career Grand Slam is a huge achievement. However, he may have to wait at least one more year to join the elite group who have won all the majors because Rose is the selection to win the 2019 Masters Tournament.   

Wood And Lowry Can Profit From A Ryder Cup Hangover – By Ian Hudson

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For 51 weeks of the year golf is an individual sport and a dog-eat-dog world in which one man’s feast is another man’s famine. The better a golfer plays the more prize money he wins and the law of the jungle applies. Anybody that misses the cut earns nothing and the higher the finishing position the better the financial rewards. This week’s Dunhill Links Championship is slightly different to a regular tournament but its still about performing and earning money. The Ryder Cup is the one genuine event in which money is not the object. The Americans couldn’t buy the trophy last week. 

The Dunhill event combines a stroke play tournament for professionals with a Pro-Am. The best score on each hole from a pair counts and the amateurs receive strokes based on their handicap. After three rounds 60 professionals qualify for the final round and the leading 20 Pro-Am teams also compete on the Sunday. It’s appropriate that the defending champion is Tyrell Hatton who played for Europe in the Ryder Cup last week and contributed a point. In fact Hatton also won the tournament in 2016 so is going for a three-peat but must beat a friend and some foes. 

The 2017 winner is fourth in the betting behind Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau and Tommy Fleetwood.  It’s debateable if these three players will be totally focused and prepared for the job in hand. Koepka and Finau probably had a quite Sunday night in France. But if I was a betting man I’d bet a few quid that Fleetwood had a late night. He was the joint leading rookie with Justin Thomas of the United States and won four matches with Francesco Molinari. The Open champion went five-for-five in the Ryder Cup and showed more animation than when he won his first major.    

We can probably dismiss the four players who competed in the Ryder Cup and focus on links specialists further down the betting. This week’s event is being played at the Old Course at St Andrews, the Championship Course at Carnoustie and Kingsbarns Golf Links. The courses are played in rotation on the first three days and the qualifiers from the pro event and Pro-Am play the Old Course again on Sunday. Chris Wood and Shane Lowry did not play in the Ryder Cup and excel at links golf.  

The Old Course has wide-open fairways and despite its fame as the “Home of Golf” is relatively easy when there is no wind. The four short par 4s means the true par is 70 and not 72 but the degree of difficulty goes up when its not still. Carnoustie staged the Open this summer so it’s a demanding test. Kingsbarns is exposed to the wind so the better links exponents will have an advantage. Wood and Lowry are great wind players and excellent golfers by the sea. At least one should make the payout places.

However, you must bear in mind that luck can play a major part in this event because a player can play a course in the worst of the weather one day and then find his competitors face the same challenge in benign conditions the following day. Although it’s not necessary for success its advantageous to play St Andrews on Saturday in round three so that a player can carry forward the feel for the course from the Saturday to Sunday. At the time of writing the tee times were not available. My guess is that the headline acts will be playing their third rounds at St Andrews. 

In any normal week you’d fancy one of the Ryder Cup players to prevail. However, mental letdown, physical and mental fatigue and recovery from the party muddy the waters so Wood and Lowry can benefit. Hatton would be a worthy winner again but it’s asking too much after the Ryder Cup and the links specialists are preferred.

Justin Rose Can Win The Scottish Open This Week – By Ian Hudson

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Phil Mickelson won the Scottish Open and the British Open the following week in 2013 but it’s rare for a player to win a tournament and then a major seven days later. Justin Rose is the favourite for the Scottish Open which is a decent title in its own right. However, in some ways Rose may not want to win because his priority is the Open Championship at Carnoustie next week. Rickie Fowler is the headline act from the US Tour in Scotland this week.

Since 2011 the Scottish Open has been played on a links course and this year it is at Gullane Golf Club in East Lothian. It has had a date in the schedule before the Open since 1987 so it makes sense to play the tournament on a course by the sea. The event is now taken to some of the links courses in Scotland that do not have the space or infrastructure to stage an Open. It was last played at Gullane in 2015 when Fowler won the tournament.

The course is a par 70 layout over 7,133 yards which is relatively short and the main defence is the wind which often affects this type of golf. The Open is always played on a links course and a full range of skills is required for good scoring. Finding the greens in the correct number of shots is more important than driving accuracy because the fairways on links courses are often generous. It will be interesting to see how Carnoustie is set up next week. There is a balance between testing the best golfers in the world and making the course unplayable in the wind.

Playing the Scottish Open on a links course makes for a better field. In addition to Fowler US Masters champion Patrick Reed is playing. Matt Kuchar also competes and he chased home Jordan Spieth in the Open at Royal Birkdale last year. Rafa Cabrera Bello made the frame in that championship and Louis Oosthuizen won the Open at St Andrews in 2010. Mickelson is also playing in one of his favourite tournaments ahead of the Open but his major winning days are behind him.

The Scottish Open is being played at a composite course at Gullane. The course is undulating and it stands on typical links terrain. The fairways are average in width and the greens are relatively fast. The weather has been dry and hot over the past few weeks so the course will be fast-running. It will suit proven links players who can handle the vagaries of links golf. Rose is a worthy favourite but his focus may be on the Open that matters most next week.

Fowler must be considered based on his course form and positive mental associations with the location. However, it has been a quite year for a player who finished in the top five of all four majors in 2014 without winning one. He has been knocking on the door in the big ones and if he plays well this week must have a chance of winning the Open. Reed may not have the game or patience to cope with the bad bounces and difficult greens that are part of links golf. Kuchar had his chance in the Open in 2017 but would be a popular winner in Scotland this week.

Mickelson showed five years ago that if you are in form and confident back-to-back wins are possible. Poor weather will be a leveller or it can concentrate the mind. Come rain or shine Rose ticks most of the boxes this week so he can win the Scottish Open and contend in the Open next week.

Fleetwood Has the Profile To Win This Week By Ian Hudson 

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Bizarrely it’s the first week of the new US PGA Tour at the Safeway Open but with the field not confirmed at the time of writing it’s difficult to identify potential contenders. Ryan Moore has had a poor season but he excels on courses that put a premium on accuracy over distance so he has a chance at the Silverado Resort in California that hosts this week’s event. There are better betting opportunities in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the European Tour.

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The Safeway Open is the first of the 49 tournaments that contribute to the FedEx Cup standings. It all leads to the Tour Championship in 50 weeks in September 2018. There is a delay in announcing the confirmed field because the Web.com Tour Championship finished on Monday and the end-of-season standings will determine who qualifies for the main Tour and is thus eligible for the Safeway Open.

There is an intriguing tournament in Europe. The Links Championship will be Rory McIlroy’s last outing of the season before he takes an extended break. He is a player in form after finishing with a 63 in the British Masters last Sunday which left him in second place three shots adrift of Paul Dunne. McIlroy is an Open champion so can handle links golf. However he could be demob happy and have his mind elsewhere so other players with decent skill’s profiles are preferred.

The Links Championship as the name suggests is played on three links courses in east Scotland. Golfers play St Andrews, Kingsbarns and Carnoustie in rotation over the first three days and the final round is played at St Andrews on Sunday. It’s also a pro-am event so 60 players and 20 teams qualify for the final round at the Home of Golf. Rounds can take up to six hours so players must have the temperament to cope.

The three host courses are links in nature but vary in design. However, the main skills for good scoring are driving distance, greens in regulation and average putts per round. The weather can be quite nasty on the east coast of Scotland at this time of the year so the week can be a mental and physical struggle and patience is needed to get through and contend over the weekend.

Tommy Fleetwood has an excellent profile and can win this season in Europe for the third time. He is miles ahead of Sergio Garcia in the Race to Dubai after the best season of his career. He has won at world championship level and was fancied to win the British Open at Royal Birkdale. As the local player the pressure was too much in his first round be he recovered to post a top 20 finish on a course near his home.

Branden Grace is a links specialist and former champion. In fact he won the event in 2012 and is two-times winner of the Qatar Masters on a course where wind can be a factor. The South African has not won anywhere this year but his skills and course experience suggest he can get in the mix. Grace combines distance off the tee with accurate iron play and is a good putter so he can contend this week.

Byeong Hun An won the BMW PGA Championship in 2015 and that is excellent form. His form has dipped since then but at his best An is a quality player with the skills to contend. He is tall of stature and hits the ball a relatively long way. An controls his approach shots and putts well and that gives him a good chance of winning the 2017 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

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Ryder Cup Players Should be Opposed in Dunhill Links

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Four of Europe’s Ryder Cup winning team are playing in the Dunhill Links and at dutched odds of about 5/2 they must be layed in combination. Celebrations went long in to the night and playing golf competitively is probably the last thing on the mind of Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer, Victor Dubuisson and Stephen Gallacher.

Phil Mickelson could have been more diplomatic and discreet but his barbs were clearly aimed at Tom Watson. The US captain seemed detached and lacking passion. The impression from the outside was that he tried to inspire his players by merely being Tom Watson and not a supportive leader of the team.

Europe have now won eight of the last ten Ryder Cups and the last three. On world rankings the US had the stronger team but at no point other than at lunchtime on Saturday did they look like winning. The Europeans to a man praised Paul McGinley while none of the Americans seemed to have a good word to say about Watson.

The art of captaincy and leadership in the Ryder Cup was again proved to be more than about player reputation. In terms of titles and ability McGinley could not tie Watson’s golf shoes laces. However, he proved to be a much better captain and leader of 12 golfers from different countries and backgrounds.

Mickelson publicly questioned Watson’s captaincy and though it was the wrong time and place his observations were valid. He has every right as a ten time Ryder Cup player to express his opinions but his comments should have been made in private. However, there is no doubt Watson made some poor decisions and his body language and demeanour was not positive.

Even before play began Watson’s selection of Webb Simpson over Chris Kirk was a bad call. He compounded that error by not having enough vice-captains on the course and only one namely Steve Stricker is still playing on the PGA Tour. He could have redeemed himself by letting Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed build on their start on Friday but rested them in the afternoon when a tired Mickelson and Keegan Bradley were selected.

In contrast McGinley thought of everything in terms of pairings and playing schedules and also in the minor details in the locker room and team room. Even the fish in the tank were yellow and blue. Europe have had some great captains in recent times but McGinley might just be the best. He developed camaraderie and a bond between players from an individual sport into a team context and this was something Watson could not or would not grasp.

Darren Clarke looks the most likely European captain for the next Ryder Cup in 2016. McGinley will not have a role as he believes he has made the natural progression from player to vice-captain to captain. Watson is unlikely to be part of the US team. Jack Nicklaus and Nick Faldo both failed as Ryder Cup captains which shows playing ability does not count for everything in the context of the role.

When the States always won the Ryder Cup there was very little interest. It only got interesting when players from continental Europe were added to the mix. Severiano Ballesteros inspired a continent to take on and beat the Yanks. There is now a danger that interest will wane in America as they cannot win it. That is why Mickelson’s views though made in the wrong environment are perfectly valid. Paul Azinger may be called back into the fold as Mickelson clearly liked his approach to captaining the United States in the Ryder Cup.

McIlroy ultimately had a great Ryder Cup setting the tone in the singles by beating Rickie Fowler 5 and 4. Fowler is the great new hope of US golf but knows McIlroy is a better player and looks destined to be a contender but not the winner of too many majors. The US starlet finished in the top five of all four majors this year but McIlroy won two and became the first multiple major champion and Ryder Cup winner in the same year since ironically Tom Watson in 1977.

The world number one likes the format of the Dunhill Links as he gets to partner his Dad in the pro-am. This is a complex tournament played over three courses in the east of Scotland and the only pro-am on the European Tour. Teams of one pro and one amateur play each course in rotation over the first three days. A cut is then made after which the top 60 players and the top 20 amateurs progress to play the final round at St Andrews.

St Andrews has wide open fairways and is the easiest course. The 17th, the road hole, is a legendary tough par 4. There are only two par 3s and par 5s on the par 72 course. Carnoustie is on the Open rota and is a demanding par 72 track especially when the wind blows. Kingsbarns is a highly regarded course that is exposed to the elements with the conventional number of short and long holes in a par of 72.

Inevitably luck can play a big part in this tournament as a player can get the worst of the weather on one day and then find his rivals face the same course in benign conditions just 24 hours later. It is advantageous to play St Andrews on Saturday in round three so that a player can carry forward his feel for the course into the final round, though it is not necessary for victory. The best combination seems to be play Kingsbarns first and then Carnoustie before heading to the Home of Golf for the weekend.

The winning score over the last three years has been 22 under twice and 23 under the other time. That suggests the weather was settled and the tournament developed into a putting contest. However, as with most links courses with wide fairways and tricky greens driving distance and greens in regulation are also key skills. Another factor is the temperament of the individual as rounds can take more than six hours and the amateurs can prove to be a distraction.

The fans would love to see one of the Ryder Cup players win the tournament. However, mental letdown will be a handicap so one of the lesser lights of the European Tour can enjoy some time in the spotlight and the healthy winner’s cheque. Meanwhile McIlroy may spend some time in the bar with his Dad.

The Bet Enthusiast Report – Women’s British Open Golf

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We are in the middle of a great spell of major championship golf but the best achievement in the game this season could take place at St Andrews on Sunday. The ‘Home of Golf’ is hosting this year’s Women’s British Open and Inbee Park is looking to achieve the Grand Slam by winning each of the majors in the same season.

The last individual World Golf Championship event of the season, the Bridgestone Invitational, takes place at the Firestone Country Club in Ohio but it is the east coast of Scotland that could see one of the greatest achievements in the history of the game. Park is as low as 5/1 to win the tournament and thus complete the set of majors in 2013.

Park could do what no other golfer has ever done, male or female, in winning four major professional championships in a single season. She arrives in Scotland going for the calendar year Grand Slam on the most historic golf course in the world. St Andrews has witnessed many Opens but never the completion of the Grand Slam in the same season.

Even Jack Nicklaus at his best never won the first three majors of the season in the men’s game. Tiger Woods held the four majors at the same time but his wins spanned two seasons. It could be argued that Woods achieved the Grand Slam but winning all four in the same season was beyond arguably the second best player in the history of the sport.

In the women’s game Mickey Wright won four consecutive professional major championships but that was over the 1961 and 1962 seasons. In 1930 Bobby Jones won four major championships but that included two amateur events, which were then classed as majors. If Park wins the Women’s Open her achievement will be unique and unprecedented.

Park has already won the Kraft Nabisco Championship, LPGA Championship and US Open this season to date which leaves just the British Open to complete the set. The US Open is the toughest event in women’s golf but Park recorded a comfortable four shot victory. It would be apt if she made history in the country where the game was invented and on the course that is the sport’s most well known and historic.

Women’s professional golf is a relatively new concept for the Old Course. It will be interesting to see if Park is allowed to celebrate in the iconic clubhouse that still has strict rules with regards female players. The all male members rule caused some controversy at Muirfield but surely Park would be made welcome in the clubhouse at St Andrews if she made history.

Park won the LPGA Money List in 2012 and is ranked at number one in the world. If she is not to create history Stacy Lewis could be the main beneficiary. The former world number one has built a solid bank of form on the links courses that have hosted the Women’s Open in the last three years. However, it could be Inbee Park’s destiny to create history on the most famous course in the world.

With the men’s Open still fresh in the mind we now embark on a huge fortnight of golf for the men which culminates next week in the PGA Championship, the final major championship of the season. Before the event known as ‘Glory’s Last Shot’ we have the WGC Bridgestone Invitational which has attracted the strongest field of the year beside the majors.

The traditional tournament is again being played on the South Course at Firestone. As usual there is a small field and without a halfway cut every player receives a handsome cheque. The South Course is above average in length for a par 70 track. Six of the twelve par 4s are over 450 yards and only one of the two par 5s is reachable is in two shots.

Long may it be but the course is forgiving off the tee and that puts a premium on good approach play to the small, bentgrass greens. Firestone is a tight track and demands consistent iron play. Accuracy more than distance is the key to decent scoring and course experience is useful here. Mental letdown is less of an issue since the tournament moved in the schedule from after to before the PGA Championship.

As always in recent majors and WGC events Tiger Woods is the clear favourite for a tournament that he has won seven times in the past. Woods won the first three renewals as a WGC event from 1999 to 2001 but his most recent win was in 2009 when he won by four shots. In its 14 year history with World Championship status only twice has the winner not been an existing or future major champion.

A measure of his longevity at the top of the game is Phil Mickelson’s win in 1996 when the event was known as the World Series of Golf. For the last five years in that guise the event was won by a player who had already won or would win in the future a major championship. It is testimony to Mickelson’s sustained ability that it would be another 17 years before his greatest achievement in golf.

For many years Mickelson turned up at the famous links courses in England and Scotland with no chance of winning the Open Championship. It took him years to adapt his game to coastal golf and all the effort finally paid off when he won the Open at Muirfield, playing one of the best rounds of his career to clinch the title and take home the Claret Jug for the first time.

Mickelson and Woods would be worthy winners and Justin Rose a fitting champion if he could find the type of form that helped him win the US Open in June. However, whoever wins in Ohio this weekend will be overshadowed in terms of sporting history if Inbee Park wins the Women’s Open at St Andrews.

Ian Hudson
Bet Enthusiast
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