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Rick’s Sports Betting: A Christmas Thistle Cracker in The King George? – By Rick Elliott

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The King George V1 Chase has a history of producing multiple winners over the last 10 years and only the last three winners have won the race once since 2008. Kauto Star, Long Run and Silviniaco Conti all won more than one King George over that spell and Thistlecrack can win the race again two years after winning it for the first time. The mid-season championship chase takes place over three miles at Kempton Park on Boxing Day. Some of the best chasers in the sport have won it. 

Trends can provide clues for the potential winners of championship races. Grade 1 races over fences are run at the same tracks and date from year to year and there are some established trials. The profile of past winners can help to identify the leading contenders for the upcoming race. The King George is a major trail for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the second most important steeplechase of the season. Over the last decade the background of the winner has had a number of factors in common which in some cases have been without exception. 

The King George attracts the best staying chasers in Britain and Ireland and sometimes from further afield. Francois Doumen often brought his best chasers to run in the race from France. From 1987 to 2000 he won the King George five times with four different horses. The common factor was that his winners were amongst the best rated chasers when he travelled to Kempton over Christmas. However, Kauto Star (2011) was the last winner to also win the Gold Cup. Long Run, Best Mate and Kicking King have also won both races this century.       

Every winner of the King George over the last 10 years has had an adjusted Racing Post Rating of 174. All but one winner in that spell had run in eight chases or more. Nine of that 10 had been successful in at least one Grade 1 chase and the same number won the King George aged from six to nine. Two trends have delivered four times out of five so 80% of the winners have won a graded chase from 2 miles 4 furlongs to 2 miles and 6 furlongs and been rated within 6lbs of the top rated runner. All but two of the last 10 winners also had chase winning form over three miles or more. Six winners had run in the King George before.      

There are a number of intended runners in the 2018 race who meet some of the qualifying criteria for possible winners. More significantly the trainer to follow in staying races is Colin Tizzard. He won the Gold Cup last season with Native River and two of the last three King George’s with Cue Card and Thistlecrack. Cue Card has been retired but Native River and Thistlecrack are still in the declared runners for the King George and the latter is best suited to the track. Native River could have some limitations exposed going right-handed at Kempton. 

Thistlecrack is proven over the course and distance. The horse has not won a race since the Boxing Day feature in 2016. However, Thistlecrack ran a promising trial in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. The horse charged up the home straight better than any of the other runners without the jockey asking too many questions. Thistlecrack produced an RPR just two pounds below his best and that form and rating and other elements makes Thistlecrack the trends selection for the King George.    

              

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

Everton Can Avoid Defeat At The Etihad 

If you were asked to select Manchester City’s best 11 John Stones, David Silva, Sergio Aguero and Kevin de Bruyne would be on the team sheet. If you were asked to name one Everton player who is indispensable the name of Idrissa Gueye would unlikely to feature. All five players will be absent today when Manchester City are at home to Everton in a fixture that has produced a draw in the last three seasons. 

City have won nine home Premier League matches in a row but Everton have not been disgraced against top six teams on their travels. At the latest odds the DRAW is the bet of this match at 13/2 with bet365.  These two teams have won more corners than anybody else in the Premier League this season.

Fulham and West Ham who meet at Craven Cottage today are in the bottom half of the table for corners won. The home team are on course to break the record for goals conceded in a 38-match Premier League season. The Hammers have won six league matches this season but only kept a clean sheet in one of those fixtures. 

Fulham are at the bottom of the table while West Ham have won three EPL matches on the bounce. Fulham have the worst defence in the division but West Ham usually concede when they win a match. The trends suggest a West Ham win with both teams scoring but a more cautious option is just BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 8/15 with William Hill.    

The racing Press have caught up with how unlucky Rather Be was in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham. The horse is all the rage to win the second big handicap chase at Cheltenham before Christmas today. The International Hurdle (3.05) is also an intriguing race which The New One is trying to win for the fourth time. Jumping let Summerville Boy down against Samcro and Buvuer D’Air at Newcastle but the horse still won the Festival opener in March after making a pig’s ear of the last two hurdles. SUMMERVILLE BOY is the horse to back at 3/1 with Betfair.  

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Goals Almost Guaranteed At The Emirates

Three teams are unbeaten after 10 matches for just the third time in the history of top flight football in England. Manchester City and Chelsea have not suffered a defeat yet and Liverpool are the third club who have picked up points from all their fixtures in the Premier League. Arsenal lost their first two league matches but have since won the last eight. 

That means something has to give when Liverpool play them at the Emirates today.  There have been at least four goals in the last five meetings but Arsenal score most of their goals after the break. Liverpool are league leaders for results before half-time so a decent bet is the LIVERPOOL/ARSENAL double result at 33/1 with Ladbrokes. 

The early live televised match is Bournemouth’s home fixture against Manchester United. The league table does not lie and the hosts are above their illustrious opponents after just over one quarter of the season. Jose Mourinho targets competitions and as United cannot win the league the Champions League becomes more important. BOURNEMOUTH are unbeaten in the league at home this season and can extend that run with threw points today which is the bet at 14/5 with bet365.    

Tottenham have been in the news for several wrong reasons but a win at West Ham in the EFL Cup could be a turning point. The club are now regular Champions League qualifiers and opponents Wolves in an evening fixture were promoted from the Championship last season. Tottenham have not lost to a newly-promoted club in 38 meetings. The visitors are still not at their best so the DRAW is the tip and that outcome is 12/5 with Coral.   

It’s the second night of the Breeders’ Cup and there are nine Grade 1 races on the card this evening. Roaring Lion is on the drift for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 9.44 due to the nature of the dirt surface and an unfavourable draw. The horse has won four Group 1 races in Britain this season but has only raced on turf. ACCELERATE has been drawn on the outside but can win a Breeders’ Cup contest for a third year and is best priced at 4/1 with William Hill. 

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Timely Home Win For Leicester

Leicester have lost their last two league matches which is hardly a crisis. The manager is under pressure and a home defeat to West Ham today would not help his cause. The visitors have spent a fortune, go through managers like they are going out of fashion and have left their spiritual home. Things could go from bad to worse today. 

Leicester have kept four clean sheets in their last 23 matches during which they have let in 43 goals. However, West Ham have not found the net in five of nine Premier League matches this season and several players will be absent due to injury today. LEICESTER are the team to back at 6/5 with William Hill.

The England tour of Sri Lanka continues today with a one-off T20 international in Colombo. Bizarrely the tour has been scheduled during the monsoon season and the One Day International was severely affected by heavy rain. Amid the showers England won the series 2-1 and the only defeat was in the final match which was a dead rubber. Both sides have won four of the last eight T20 matches so on form and with home advantage the value lies in backing SRI LANKA at 13/8 with Ladbrokes. 

The race formerly known as the Racing Post Trophy is the last Group 1 contest of the Flat season and takes place over one mile at Doncaster today (4.05) . Fillies are eligible and would get a three pound allowance but none are taking part. Saxon Warrior, trained by Aiden O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore won the race last year, beating Roaring Lion into second place. The trainer’s leading fancy in the race today will be ridden by his son, Donnacha. MANGA GRECIA is the tip at  6/4 with bet365.

Arsenal Can Go Marching On – By Ian Hudson

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The only team with a perfect five match record in the Premier League is Arsenal and before Thursday’s Europa League match against Sporting in Lisbon they had won ten matches in succession in all competitions. Crystal Palace have lost their last three fixtures in the Premier League so on form will struggle to avoid defeat against Arsenal in the early match on Saturday. Arsenal can still be backed at 33/1 to win the title and despite some relatively easy fixtures in the run of wins that looks a big price.

The odds-on favourites to be champions of England this season are Manchester City. The defending champions have dropped just four points in nine matches and have scored 26 goals and conceded three. City have the best goal difference in the Premier League by 10 goals but Liverpool are still level on points and are still unbeaten after a quarter of the season. A home match against Cardiff should provide three points which will take them to the top of the table at least until Monday night. 

Next week’s Monday Night Football is City’s match away from home against Tottenham. If the building had gone to schedule this match would have been played at the new White Hart Lane. However, there have been delays which means Tottenham are still playing their home matches at Wembley. It will be interesting to see the state of the pitch after the NFL match last Sunday. It is unsatisfactory that a key Premier League fixture could be played on a poor surface due to another sport using the pitch.

The delayed move to the new stadium is one of a number of issues at Tottenham. Its one thing to be satisfied with your squad and not buy new players in the summer but leaving yourself short is another matter. Dele Alli is one of a number of injury absentees which have revealed a thin squad. Tottenham played a crucial match against PSV Eindhoven on Wednesday after losing on both the first two match days. Real Madrid may be in the market for a new manager and Mauricio Pochettino could be in the frame. With all this going on the last team you want to meet is Manchester City.   

The current league leaders have scored eight goals in their last two matches without conceding. The 5-0 home win against Burnley last Saturday is typical of last season. City never looked in any danger and once a couple of marginal decisions went their way it was just a question of how many goals. The champions are averaging almost three goals per match in the league and have let in just one goal in four matches on the road. Tottenham could be facing a crisis because City can win the meeting at Wembley which would leave them five points adrift of leaders.   

Jose Mourinho seems to be surviving as the manager of Manchester United on a game-by-game basis. However, they were close to beating Chelsea in the league and were not disgraced against Juventus in the Champions League. A number of ex-players are having their say but a home win against Everton could steady the ship. The league title has now gone but Mourinho may target the Champions League and winning that would justify his appointment. United can beat Everton at Old Trafford.  

Leicester gave Arsenal a game in the first half but were eventually outclassed. However, there was no shame in being beaten by a team in great form. West Ham had the chances to share the points against Tottenham. Hugo Lloris was in inspired form and Tottenham kept a clean sheet and scored the only goal. Leicester can make home advantage count and beat West Ham at the King Power Stadium on Saturday.      

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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A Must Must Win Match For Mourinho

Manchester United were well organised at the back and showed some commitment in the goalless draw against Valencia in the Champions League at Old Trafford. If you look back at some of the big European nights at the ground in the past during the Sir Alex Ferguson era the football under him and Jose Mourinho was like chalk and cheese. The current boss needs a win at home against Newcastle today but will he go against type and instruct his players to gamble and Attack, Attack, Attack? MOURINHO is the favourite in the sack race at 1/5 with Betfair.

If he could have chosen a must-win game it could have been Newcastle on United’s home patch. Losing 3-1 at West Ham was not a disaster but the manner of the defeat was and a similar effort and result today could be the end for the Special One. His long term prospects in the job he craved most are not good but Mourinho can extend his reign through the international break with a win. Newcastle do not have the quality to take advantage of the dire state of the opposition so a win for MANCHESTER UNITED TO NIL is the bet at 11/10 with Ladbrokes.  

There are five matches in the Premier League today that kick-off at the traditional time of 3pm. That means half the fixtures now start at different times at the behest of television. The broadcasters put huge amounts of money into the Premier League so get to call the shots. Only Wolves at Crystal Palace are favourites to win on the road and the nap is BURNLEY to beat Huddersfield at home at 13/10 with bet365.  

Tomorrow’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is the richest race in Europe. The draw has worked out well for Enable and the filly can win the race again. However, despite a high draw the each-way value is KEW GARDENS at 10/1 with William Hill. There is Group 1 action at Newmarket today in a race over one mile for fillies and mares (3.15). WIND CHIMES on form and ratings is the selection at 2/1 with Coral. 

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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West Ham Can Beat Brighton Tonight 

Whether you like it or not Friday night Premier League football is here to stay and there is even talk of live matches on Sunday evenings. The amount of televised action has surely reached saturation point but the broadcasters would say they are supplying live fixtures to meet demand. He who pays the piper plays the tune and the Premier League is awash with television money but the next rights deal could see a drop in income for the first time. It will be interesting to see the viewing figures for tonight’s match at Brighton when West Ham are the opposition. Brighton have not conceded in just two of their last 24 matches in the Premier League and WEST HAM are on a good run of form. An away win can be backed at 19/10 with Betfair.

Wigan host Castleford in the semi-final of the Super League with a place against Warrington in the Grand Final at Old Trafford on the line. After the Super 8s the home team had five more points than the visitors but a superior point’s difference of 138. Over 30 matches the average ascendancy is 4.6 points and home advantage is worth 6. That means the handicap should be 11 points but the line has been set at 4. Wigan have just recorded eight wins in a row and all six semi-finals under the current format have been won by the team playing at home. The average winning advantage has been 8 points. The obvious conclusion is that the bet for tonight’s fixture is WIGAN -4 at Evens with Ladbrokes.

The Class 1 Noel Murless Stakes over six furlongs at Ascot (3.35) is the richest race of the day. It’s a bit of an hor d’oeuvre before a decent Saturday card and the Arc the following day at Longchamp. The draw for Europe’s richest race has done no favours for second favourite Sea Of Class. Enable has a great chance to win the race again from stall six and is now a bigger favourite. Today’s Ascot feature  can see the progressive GHOSTWATCH graduate from handicap company to win the listed race and that result can be backed at 2/1 with William Hill.  

Liverpool Can Beat Manchester City In Blockbuster – By Ian Hudson

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There are a number of defining matches in the Premier League that stand out from the rest of the fixtures. Liverpool’s home match against Manchester City is one of the key meetings of the schedule that involves 380 matches over the course of the season. Liverpool and City dominate the betting for the title and the winner of this fixture would take a huge step towards being the champions of England. Liverpool would put a significant marker down by beating Manchester City on Sunday.

After seven sets of fixtures three teams remain unbeaten. City and Liverpool have dropped just two points while Chelsea have won five matches and drawn the other two. City have the best goal difference, have scored most goals and have the joint meanest defence with Liverpool. It looks like a three horse race for the Premier League and at the current odds Chelsea are the value option. However, the two sides above them have more quality and settled management. 

Liverpool and City are playing for the manager and have bought into the plan. Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola have a connection with their players who are playing as a team. Meanwhile, there seems to be something badly wrong at Manchester United where Jose Mourinho’s days could be numbered. Everybody is singing from the same hymn sheet by saying his job is not under threat but defeat to Newcastle at home live on television on Saturday would be a huge blow.          

In the context of the winners of the Premier League the fixture is not important because Liverpool and City are on a different planet to United. It’s galling for fans that their two closest rivals are being successful playing attractive football. Something has been lost at Old Trafford since the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson. If Mourinho is fired its time to give one of Fergie’s protégées a chance. There is only one job that would tempt Ryan Giggs to quit as the manager of Wales and he could be the right man to be the next manager of Manchester United.   

 

Newcastle are good opponents when you are desperate for three points. They have lost four of their last five Premier League matches and look destined for the drop. The owner refuses to put his hand in his pocket and the manager, Rafa Benitez, will soon get totally fed up and could be gone. United lacked confidence and created very little in the goalless home draw against Valencia in the Champions League. It won’t be pretty but United can secure a narrow win over Newcastle. 

If Liverpool and City fight out a draw Chelsea could leapfrog them and sit at the top of the table after the weekend. However, to reach the summit a home win by eight goals or more against Southampton on the road is required. Southampton are two places above the relegation zone after just one win in seven matches. They have not won a home fixture from three this season and beating Chelsea looks beyond them. The visitors have the quality to win this match by at least one goal but not eight.  

Brighton host West Ham in the Friday night match but will struggle to secure a home win. Brighton’s home form kept them in the Premier League last season and so far they have won, drawn and lost a fixture at the Amex. West Ham have picked up seven points in three Premier League matches and scored eight against Macclesfield in the League Cup. The Hammers are a team in form so can beat Brighton in this match.

Arsenal are the only team with a perfect record over the last five matches. The season started with two defeats but the opponents were Manchester City and Chelsea. Fulham have won just one of their first seven matches in the Premier League so beating the form team at home on Saturday may be beyond them. However, the far more significant match is at Anfield where Liverpool can beat Manchester City.    

Liverpool Can Win Six-Pointer Against Chelsea – By Ian Hudson

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It’s rare when the majority of fixtures in the Premier League kick-off at the traditional time of 3pm on Saturday. There were no Europa League matches involving English clubs on Thursday night which causes matches to be put back and the Cardiff against Burnley meeting is the only live match on Sunday. Its more about quality than quantity with one of the blockbuster fixtures of the season when Liverpool play Chelsea at Anfield in the second live match on Saturday. 

The teams met in the third round of the EFL Cup at the same ground on Wednesday night. The managers may play the second strings because picking up three points is much more important than progressing to the next round of the League Cup. Ahead of the Cup game Chelsea had scored exactly one goal in the last nine meetings with Liverpool. Both sides won their first five matches in the Premier League but Chelsea have now dropped points and Liverpool have not. 

This is a fixture that doesn’t often involve many goals. Before Wednesday night’s match only two of the last nine meetings produced three goals or more. However, under the current managers both sides are more attack minded and both teams should score on Saturday. The match truly is a six-pointer and the gap between the teams at the end of 90 minutes could be between five points in Liverpool’s favour or one point in favour of Chelsea. A home win is the most likely outcome.

The days of Anfield being a fortress are back and Liverpool are tough to beat at home. Last season they won 12 and drew 7 of 19 home EFL matches so went unbeaten, scoring 45 goals and conceding 10. Only Manchester United let in fewer goals at home and only Manchester City had a better positive home goal difference.  Chelsea lost six league matches on the road last season. Liverpool were the biggest spenders over the summer and the outlay can be justified with three points from this match. 

The early match sees Manchester United meet West Ham at the London Stadium. The deal to play where the Olympics took place was attractive but its debatable whether the positives outweigh the negatives. The advantage of playing at Upton Park may be more urban myth than a reality and United have a good recent record when they visit the East End. West Ham looked a decent outfit in beating Everton on the road and then took a point from Chelsea at home but United should win this one. 

At the start of the season Cardiff were most people’s pick for relegation and an immediate return to the Championship. There has been some huffing and puffing but a 5-0 home defeat to Manchester City says it all. A few teams will be soundly beaten by the champions this season but the manner of the defeat suggests Cardiff are out of their depth. Burnley are free of the distraction of the Europa League and beat Bournemouth 4-0 at home last weekend. The good form can be maintained with an away victory in South Wales on Sunday.

Bournemouth will be looking to get their season back on track the following night when Crystal Palace visit their south coast. Palace lost three on the bounce but have since picked up four points from two matches. However, the opposition was not strong and the manager of Bournemouth knows if they stop Wilfried Zaha they stop Palace. The players can achieve that objective and earn three points against Palace.    

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Chelsea Can Maintain Perfect Start

Manchester City and Liverpool both won their matches to nil yesterday and dominate the Premier League outright betting. However, Chelsea have not dropped a point in five matches and are a big price to be the champions of England. Chelsea were late back from playing in the Europa League in Greece on Thursday. Today’s opponents on the road, West Ham, had an impressive win at Everton last weekend. West Ham have scored in their last seven matches against CHELSEA but the visitors are the team to back at 6/10 with Coral.

Everton were soundly beaten by West Ham and seemed to find the basic skills of football difficult to achieve like passing the ball to a team mate. Jordan Pickford was affected by the malaise and a wayward pass by the England keeper handed the Hammers their second goal. Arsenal have conceded at least one goal in seven of their last eight home matches and the hosts have been involved in a number of high-scoring matches this season. Arsenal should secure another home win but the best bet is BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 8/13 with Betfair.

There is some decent prize money up for grabs for a Sunday meeting at Uttoxeter today. Sunday racing was introduced to add some quality racing to the weekend schedule but the sport is generally moderate. In Ireland and France major races take place on the seventh day of the week but in Britain it’s more bread and butter fare. The handicap chase over two miles and four furlongs (3.50) is the richest race on the Uttoxeter card. On ratings Valadom is the each way value but MIDNIGHT SHOT is the horse to back at 10/1 with BetVictor.

Is There A Crisis At Tottenham? – By Ian Hudson

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Who would have thought there would be crisis talk so early in the season at one of the best managed clubs in the Premier League? Tottenham have now lost three matches in succession for the first time during the Mauricio Pochettino era. Losing to Liverpool is no disgrace but the manner of defeats against Watford in the Premier League and Inter Milan in the Champions League suggests all is not well. Tottenham have a large contingent of players who reached at least the semi-finals at the World Cup so motivation could be an issue.

Brighton should win enough matches at home to stay in the Premier League and the battling point at Southampton on Monday suggests they are prepared to fight for points on the road. Albion finished 15th last season with 40 points but had the eighth best home record with seven wins and 29 points. A win and draw in two home fixtures this season to date suggests points won at the Amex Stadium will be crucial. Brighton can pick up at least one point when Tottenham visit on Saturday.

Fulham have been outside the Premier League for four seasons but their wealthy owner has invested in some players to prevent an immediate return to the second tier. The club’s benefactor is the same businessman who is trying to buy Wembley Stadium so you would have thought he has deep pockets. However, three defeats in the Premier League has left the club lurking just above the relegation places.

Watford won their first four matches but had a reality check when losing at home to Manchester United last weekend. For the last three seasons Watford have stayed in the Premier League without doing anything special. There were no notable signings in the summer so they may find their true level this season and losing away from home against Fulham is probably more representative than beating Tottenham at home.

The clever clogs deal to play at the Olympic Stadium counted for nothing as West Ham lost their first four matches in the Premier League. Where the impressive win at Everton came from last Saturday is anybody’s guess. Everton were poor and lacked the basic skill of passing the ball to a team mate. However, West Ham produced a competent away performance and can take confidence into the home fixture with Chelsea who have won all five league matches so far.

Eden Hazard also played seven matches in the World Cup but there appears to be no hangover. He said the three week break was enough and he looks sharp. The new Chelsea manager appreciates his qualities in attacking areas and can forgive him not tracking back because he is so effective in the final third. Hazard can provide the quality to help Chelsea win this London derby against West Ham. Another defeat puts the Hammers back in the relegation mire.

There was always going to be a period of adjustment at Arsenal after the departure of Arsene Wenger. The signs were not looking good after two defeats but Arsenal have now won maximum points from three matches in the Premier League. Everton visit the Emirates on Sunday on the back of that abysmal defeat at home against West Ham. Current form suggests this is the home banker on the schedule. Everton won three matches away from home in the Premier League last season.

They are now going through managers like confetti and the optimism surrounding Marco Silva has diminished after a moderate start. Losing at home to the bottom club in West Ham does not augur well. Arsenal lost two Premier League matches at home last season but can avoid defeat against Everton and secure another three points. If results go their way another win takes them into a Champions League qualifying position and the new man goes a long way to winning over the fans.