Last week I spoke about a method of finding big priced winners and if you missed it then you can have a look at it here.
Onto this week then and today’s article is for those that have been following my series on becoming a more successful bettor and how we can turn a profit. Below is a list of the topics being covered this year and each section covers two months.
1. Selection Process/Tipsters/Systems
2. Bank size to cover all the above selection processes.
3. Percentage of the bank to be betting.
4. Losing runs and how you will deal with them on a mental level.
5. Winning streaks and how you’ll keep a level head and more importantly stick to your staking size.
6. The psychology of betting as a method of earning an income.
So as we’re in May now (5 months in, just where does the time go!!) and having covered sections 1 and 2 over several articles we need to be looking at the percentage of the bank that we need to be betting as we head into section 3.
There are hundreds of opinions/articles you can read when it comes to having the correct bank size and how to use it. Firstly though and I’ve written about this a 100 times we need to understand the percentages around our selection process. This is why it is so important to record all of our bets with prices taken and SP’s etc.
Before we should even consider betting any method we’ve decided to use we should have a full record of that method and have at least 100 selections of which we need to analyse. We then need to do two things and the first bit is a bit tricky but I’ll do my best to explain.
Archie scores? Who I hear you ask 😉
Archie scores is a way of determining whether or not our selection method is likely to continue to do well based on probabilities. There are three calculations we need to do before calculating the eventual Archie score. Firstly the number of bets. That’s easy we just count them but let’s assume we’ve got 100. Secondly we need to count how many winners we’ve had. Again easy as we can just count these. Let’s say we’ve got 30 winners for a strike rate of 30%.
The third calculation requires a little more work as we need to find the expected amount of winners. This is done by finding the average prices of ALL our selections. We simply add all the odds together and divide them by the number of bets that we have. Now the example below is very simple and of course you wouldn’t get 100 3/1 shots but for the purposes of explaining this it will have to do!
Convert your odds into decimals (3 divided by 1 = 3 + 1 = 4) and then add them all up. In this case it’s of course 400. You then divide it by the number of bets. In this rather simple example it is of course 3/1 as the average odds. It will of course be different when doing a real example.
We then divide 1 by the average odds to arrive at a percentage. So in this case 1/4 = 0.25 multiplied by 100 = 25% or from a 100 bets we would expect 25 winners.
So we have a result set of the following:
Number of bets: 100
Number of winners: 30
Expected winners: 25
Now for the complicated bit:
Number of bets(100) x (Winners(30) – Expected Winners(25)) 2
Archie = ————————————————————————–
Expected Winners(25) x (Number Of Bets(100) – Expected Winners(25)
So we have 30 – 25 = 5 x 5 (squared) = 25 x 100 = 2,500
100 – 25 = 75 x 25 = 1,875
So 2,500 divided by 1,875 = 1.333333
Now in this example that’s not a very good Archie score as we need to be looking at over 5.00 for a selection process to continue in success. Of course over a larger sample set for example 1000 selections continuing to perform as well as the first 100 we would then get an Archie score of 13.33 which is very good.
I’ll leave you mull over all that as I know the maths is rather technical but you can practice this week on your own selections and next week I’ll explain how we then use this Archie score combined with strike rates to determine the EXACT size of the bank required.
Until then have a great week and good luck with your betting.